By Tison Tesfay   October 22, 2026 (ENA) Not every war that devastates a country necessarily runs counter to the interests of its neighbors. For some regional powers, prolonged instability presents an ideal opportunity to expand influence, reshape political calculations, and postpone the reckoning with a neighbor that should be regarded as an equal. In the case of relations between Egypt and Sudan, the question is no longer whether Egypt is involved in the Sudanese war, but rather the extent of its involvement and the deeper strategic objectives Cairo seeks to achieve by fueling the conflict through support for a particular military faction. In this context, political analyst Mohamed Al-Arrousi argues that Egypt’s continued intervention in Sudan threatens the country’s sovereignty and endangers stability throughout the Horn of Africa. A careful reading of developments on the ground and in the political arena confirms that Egypt’s approach in Sudan is aimed less at ending the war than at ensuring its continuation and securing a compliant, pro-Egyptian regime, even if this comes at the cost of prolonging the suffering of the Sudanese people and exhausting the country’s national capabilities. Water Strategy, Resource Plunder, and Fears over the GERD The figures reveal the scale of the systematic destruction inflicted on Sudan’s economic infrastructure since the conflict erupted on April 15, 2023. Estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) indicate that grain production in 2025 declined by 22 percent compared with the previous year and stood approximately 19 percent below the average of the preceding five years. The World Bank also reported that Sudan’s gross domestic product contracted by 29.4 percent in 2023, followed by a further contraction of 14 percent in 2024. This economic and political paralysis serves vital and direct Egyptian strategic interests. If Sudan achieves stability and recovers, it will be able to make independent decisions regarding the management of Nile projects, foremost among them the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is essential for Sudan in mitigating devastating floods and benefiting from the vital electricity supplies it receives from the dam to develop eastern Sudan. Moreover, a stable Sudan in control of its own affairs would work to regulate its water allocations. This means that the huge volumes of water that have been wasted as they flow from Sudan into Egypt would cease, a prospect that Egyptian strategic calculations fear and regard as a threat to the country’s customary water security. That is precisely why Egyptian politicians work day and night to keep Sudan mired in instability, while seeking to preserve a regional order in which Sudan remains dependent and unable to fully control its own resources. Egypt’s gains from Sudan’s weakening extend far beyond the Nile water issue. Sudan’s instability also raises concerns over the illicit extraction and smuggling of its wealth, with reports of cross-border trafficking involving natural resources, livestock, and raw materials threatening Sudan’s economic sovereignty. Cario’s politicians exploit the state of chaos and the absence of border controls to support its economy and meet its needs at the expense of the resources of the exhausted Sudanese people. As senior researcher Abdushakur Abdelsamad emphasizes, Egypt’s approach views the exhaustion of Sudan as a guarantee that it will be unable to demand its fair share of water or exploit its vast lands and resources. This ensures the uninterrupted flow of water and wealth northward while keeping Sudan shackled by dependency and subordination. The Border Dispute and the Imposition of a De Facto Reality in Halaib Egypt’s exploitation of Sudan’s weakness is most clearly demonstrated in the issue of the occupied Halaib, Shalateen, and Abu Ramad area. While Sudan has historically insisted on its sovereignty over this strategically important coastal region, Egypt has exploited successive political and military crises in Khartoum to consolidate its military and administrative control and impose a fait accompli. The continuation of the war and the fragmentation of Sudanese institutions provide Egypt with an ideal cover to close this issue politically and diplomatically. Sudan’s leadership has become completely incapable of raising the issue of sovereignty over Halaib or even making a verbal claim to it. This reflects a clear equation of political subordination: tacit acceptance of territorial control in exchange for weapons and diplomatic support. Military Support and Direct Bias Toward One Faction Despite Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s official statements about “protecting Sudanese state institutions”—most recently during his meeting with Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on October 4, 2026—the actual conduct of the Egyptian military goes beyond supporting the concept of the “state” and extends to direct involvement in backing one military party at the expense of the Sudanese people. Egyptian intervention is no longer confined to diplomatic support. A documented Reuters report dated February 2, 2026, revealed satellite imagery and intelligence assessments confirming the deployment of combat drones at Egyptian bases near the Sudanese border for use in supporting Sudanese army operations. This direct technological and military intervention transforms Egypt from a party supposedly sponsoring peace into a direct partner in managing battles on the ground, adding fuel to the fire and prolonging the confrontations. Violation of Sudanese Sovereignty Egyptian military involvement has reached unprecedented levels through an explicit violation of Sudanese sovereignty. Egypt has reportedly massacred at least 200 Sudanese miners and wounded many others in targeting mining sites in Sudan’s North Al-Wadi area. Many observers say the recent civilian attacks are part of Egypt’s direct and indirect involvement in Sudan’s ongoing conflict, aimed at maximizing its own interests. In a recent interview with Ethiopian News Agency (ENA), Abdulshakur Abdulsamad, Senior Researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies and Regional Integration Initiative, underscored that Egypt seeks to prolong the war in Sudan to continue benefiting from the country’s water resources. In that regard, these airstrikes were not merely a violation of international borders and international law, which prohibits the use of force against the territory of other states; they also resulted in civilian casualties among Sudanese miners and other civilians. The widespread protests the bombing sparked in Sudanese cities reflect public anger and condemnation of the suspicious silence of Sudanese authorities, which have been accused of complicity and of abandoning their duty to protect citizens in exchange for Egyptian military assistance. The conduct of military operations inside Sudanese territory confirms that Cairo has come to treat Sudanese airspace and geography as an open security hinterland for its operations, with no regard for the principles of sovereignty or international law. The Regional Hegemonic Agenda and Sudan’s Future Egypt understands that an independent Sudan governed democratically and supported by strong civilian institutions would make decisions based exclusively on Sudanese national interests. These interests could necessarily conflict with Egyptian calculations on water, borders, and regional alliances. According to political commentators, Egypt’s current strategy is aimed at shaping a Sudan that remains weak, fragmented, and dependent on Cairo, unable to fully assert control over its resources or pursue an independent regional agenda. Egypt’s insistence on imposing military solutions and supporting one military faction obstructs any path toward a comprehensive political settlement that includes civilian forces and ensures the restoration of constitutional governance. The objective is not to build peace, but to tighten control over political and military decision-making in Khartoum, allowing Egypt thereafter to exert pressure on the region and obstruct regional development projects that do not serve its immediate interests. Sovereignty Is Not Granted; It Is Reclaimed Sudan’s future and the protection of its sovereignty cannot be secured through dependence on foreign powers that build their interests at the expense of the Sudanese people’s suffering. The true test of the credibility of Egypt’s slogan of “respecting Sudan’s sovereignty” requires an immediate halt to direct military interventions, respect for Sudanese territory and airspace, and an end to arming one particular faction at the expense of a comprehensive political solution. Ultimately, the Sudanese people and their national institutions face an unmistakable reality. A strong and independent Sudan cannot be built as long as its resources and destiny are entrusted to the wishes of regional allies who regard Sudan’s weakness as a source of stability for themselves, and the destruction of its foundations and plunder of its wealth as guarantees of their own influence.

By Dessalegn Kassa   October 22, 2026 (ENA) Ethiopia is entering a new political and economic chapter, seeking to translate its rich historical legacy into sustainable development, stronger democratic institutions, and a more influential regional role. Following the general election held in June 2026, the formation of a new Medemer government in October marks another phase in the country’s efforts to promote national unity, strengthen economic self-reliance, accelerate technological innovation, and deepen regional cooperation. The government’s development agenda centers on strategic investments in energy, agriculture, digital technology, mining, and tourism. From the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) to agricultural modernization and expanding digital public services, these initiatives are intended to strengthen domestic productive capacity, create employment, and improve citizens’ livelihoods. Delivering on these ambitions, however, will require effective institutions, political consensus, inclusive growth, and the equitable distribution of development gains. Ambition for Ethiopian Modernization Ethiopia’s historical experience provides an important foundation for its contemporary ambitions. The ancient Kingdom of Aksum emerged as a major political, commercial, and cultural power, connecting Africa with the Middle East and Asia through trade and diplomacy. The country’s long tradition of statehood and resistance to colonial domination further established its place in world history. Ethiopia seeks to build on this legacy by strengthening its economy, mobilizing domestic resources, modernizing public institutions, and expanding regional integration. Yet historical achievements alone cannot guarantee future prosperity. The country’s continued progress will depend on its ability to address persistent development challenges, broaden economic opportunities, and respond to the needs of its rapidly growing population. Energy and Economic Transformation Despite its abundant natural resources, considerable agricultural potential, and strategic location, Ethiopia continues to face significant economic challenges, including infrastructure gaps, foreign exchange constraints, unemployment, and dependence on imports. Expanding domestic production, strengthening industrial capacity, and diversifying exports remain central to the pursuit of sustainable growth and economic self-reliance. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, inaugurated in September 2025 with an installed capacity of approximately 5,150 megawatts, represents a major milestone in this transformation. Financed substantially through domestic resources, including contributions from Ethiopian citizens and institutions, the project demonstrates the country’s capacity to mobilize national resources for large-scale infrastructure development. Beyond electricity generation, the dam is expected to support industrialization, expand electricity access, and increase opportunities for power exports to neighboring countries. Realizing these benefits will require continued investment in transmission networks, distribution systems, and cross-border electricity connections. Reliable and affordable power can lower production costs, improve industrial productivity, and create more favorable conditions for manufacturing and investment. Alongside energy development, broader economic reforms seek to attract investment, strengthen domestic industries, improve the business environment, and diversify exports. These measures are particularly important for easing foreign exchange pressures, expanding employment, and reducing the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. Digital Transformation Digitalization has become another major pillar of Ethiopia’s development strategy, with technology increasingly used to improve public services, enhance productivity, and create new economic opportunities. Through Digital Ethiopia 2025 and its successor, Digital Ethiopia 2030, the government has pursued the modernization of public administration, the expansion of digital financial services, and the development of skills required to participate in the global digital economy. One prominent initiative is the Five Million Ethiopian Coders Initiative, launched by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in July 2024. The program aims to equip participants with practical skills in web development, Android programming, data analysis, and artificial intelligence. Participation was expanded to seven million by August 2026, reflecting the scale of the country’s digital skills ambitions. Public service delivery is also being transformed through platforms such as Mesob, designed to integrate government procedures and simplify access to services for citizens and businesses. The Fayda national digital identification program, meanwhile, has registered more than 40.9 million people, supporting efforts to establish a more integrated digital public infrastructure. The Personal Data Protection Proclamation provides an additional legal framework for safeguarding personal information. However, the long-term benefits of digitalization will depend on reliable telecommunications infrastructure, affordable internet access, effective cybersecurity, and stronger digital literacy. Ensuring that rural communities and underserved populations can access and use these services will be essential to preventing the digital divide from widening existing inequalities. Mining and Industrial Development Ethiopia’s mineral resources, including gold, potash, industrial minerals, and natural gas, offer opportunities to diversify exports, generate employment, and supply raw materials for domestic industries. Gold is an important source of foreign exchange, while potash and natural gas have the potential to broaden the export base and support industrial development. Figures provided for the sector indicate that mining generated nearly 5.7 billion US dollars in foreign exchange during the 2018 Ethiopian fiscal year, with gold accounting for most of the reported earnings. Gold production by mining companies and traditional miners was estimated at approximately 44 tonnes, reportedly generating around 5.65 billion dollars. These figures require verification against official records, particularly the reporting period, production volume and revenue calculations. The Ministry of Mines has also reportedly set a target of generating 6.7 billion dollars in revenue from the sector during the current fiscal year. The target, its timeframe and the distinction between projected revenue and realized foreign exchange earnings should be confirmed before publication. The government’s ambition extends beyond extracting and exporting raw materials. Strengthening links between mining and domestic manufacturing, including fertilizer production and iron processing, could help retain more economic value within the country, stimulate investment, and create jobs across related industries. Realizing this potential will require sustained investment in geological exploration, processing facilities, transport infrastructure, and technical expertise. Transparent licensing, responsible resource management, environmental safeguards, and meaningful participation by local communities will also be necessary to ensure that mineral wealth contributes to broad-based and sustainable development. Agricultural Productivity and Food Security Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Ethiopia’s economy, supporting millions of livelihoods, supplying domestic markets, and providing raw materials for industry. Improving productivity, strengthening food security, and reducing dependence on imported agricultural commodities are therefore central to the country’s economic transformation agenda. Wheat production has become a major focus of these efforts. Through the National Wheat Development Initiative, Ethiopia has expanded cultivation, particularly through dry-season irrigation, helping increase domestic production and reduce reliance on imports. The expansion of irrigated farming has also demonstrated the potential to increase output beyond traditional rain-fed agricultural cycles. Figures provided for the initiative indicate that irrigated wheat cultivation increased from approximately 20,000 hectares in 2020 to 3.5 million hectares in 2025. Dry-season production reportedly rose from 600,000 quintals to 128 million quintals over the same period. Across the rainy and dry seasons, wheat cultivation was reported to have reached 7.8 million hectares in 2025, with total production of approximately 280 million quintals. Rainy-season output reportedly increased from 53 million quintals in 2020 to 152 million quintals in 2025. In recognition of Ethiopia’s agricultural development efforts, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the FAO Agricola Medal from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in January 2024. Sustaining progress in food production will require continued investment in irrigation, mechanization, improved seeds, fertilizer, agricultural research, storage facilities, and transport networks. At the same time, climate variability, land degradation, rising production costs, and post-harvest losses remain important challenges. Addressing them will require stronger extension services, wider access to agricultural finance, improved market connections, and technologies that enable farmers to increase yields while managing climate-related risks. Tourism and Economic Diversification Ethiopia’s identity as the Land of Origins reflects its ancient history, cultural diversity, and exceptional natural landscapes. These assets provide a foundation for developing tourism into a stronger source of foreign exchange, employment, investment, and local economic growth. The government has promoted initiatives such as Dine for Sheger, Dine for Nation, and Dine for Generations to improve visitor facilities, develop tourism infrastructure, and expand economic opportunities for local communities. In Addis Ababa, projects including Unity Park, Entoto Park, Friendship Park, the Science Museum, and the National Palace Museum have broadened the capital’s cultural and recreational offerings. Regional developments, including Gorgora Eco Resort, Wenchi Dendi Eco Tourism Village, Halala Kela, Elephant Paw Lodge, Denbi Eco Lodge, Shabeely Resort, Haroo Dendi Lodge, and Niin Lee Palm Lodge, have extended tourism investment to different parts of the country. These developments can support local businesses, stimulate demand for agricultural products and handicrafts, and create employment in hospitality, transport, and related services. Their long-term contribution, however, will depend on accessibility, service quality, environmental protection, and effective promotion in international markets. Preserving cultural heritage and natural ecosystems while ensuring that surrounding communities benefit directly from tourism revenues will be essential to building a competitive and sustainable sector. Medemer State The formation of Ethiopia’s new Medemer government in October 2026 marks another phase in the country’s efforts to align political governance with economic transformation. At the center of its political philosophy is Medemer, an Amharic concept associated with addition, synergy, and working together. The philosophy emphasizes collective responsibility, cooperation, and national unity as foundations for addressing differences and pursuing shared development goals. National unity, peace, economic development, and the protection of national interests remain central to the administration’s priorities. Translating these objectives into lasting progress will require stronger democratic institutions, respect for the rule of law, accountable governance, and constructive engagement among political and social groups. Ethiopia’s regional ambitions are also closely linked to these domestic priorities. Deeper cooperation with neighboring countries, expanded trade, improved infrastructure connections, and coordinated approaches to shared security and development challenges can strengthen the country’s position in the Horn of Africa. Regional peace and economic integration will be important not only for cross-border commerce but also for creating a more stable environment for investment and long-term development. Ethiopia’s development agenda brings together investments in energy, digital technology, mining, agriculture, and tourism in an effort to reduce dependence on imports, expand productive capacity, create jobs, and establish a more resilient economy. The new Medemer government adds a political dimension to this agenda by placing national unity, institutional capacity, and collective responsibility alongside economic transformation. Conclusion Ethiopia’s development agenda brings together investments in energy, digital technology, mining, agriculture, and tourism in an effort to reduce dependence on imports, expand productive capacity, create jobs, and establish a more resilient economy. The new Medemer government adds a political dimension to this agenda by placing national unity, institutional capacity, and collective responsibility alongside economic transformation. Ethiopia’s historical legacy offers a source of national confidence, while its natural resources, human capital, and strategic position provide opportunities for further development. Ethiopia’s ongoing effort to rebuild its economic and political landscape demonstrates a commitment to self-determination and long-term self-reliance. By leveraging its strategic location, rich natural resources, and dynamic youth population, the nation has laid foundational building blocks across energy infrastructure, digital systems, modernized agriculture, and cultural tourism. The political framework offered by the Medemer philosophy provides a theoretical blueprint for unifying these sectoral initiatives into a cohesive strategy for national development. Crucially, the new administration devotes in implementation and equitable distribution and ensuring the daily benefits for citizens, ranging from lower living costs and meaningful jobs to transparent governance and social stability through fostering political consensus, strengthening public institutions, and bridging digital and economic divides. Ethiopia, therefore, will not only honor its historic legacy but also secure its position as a resilient, prosperous leader in the Horn of Africa and beyond.