By Staff Writer October 26, 2026 (ENA) The week of October 19 to 25, 2026, highlighted the growing links between armed conflicts, economic uncertainty, public health emergencies, climate risks and geopolitical competition. Economic developments presented a mixed picture. China’s economy grew by 4.5 percent year on year in the third quarter, supported by industrial production and technology related sectors. However, weak domestic demand, subdued private investment and a struggling property market continued to weigh on the outlook. Energy security remained closely tied to geopolitical tensions and disruptions to international shipping, while governments grappled with the challenge of balancing industrial competitiveness with climate commitments. Across these developments, diplomatic initiatives and emergency responses underscored the importance of international cooperation. However, strategic rivalries, political disagreements and resource constraints continued to complicate collective efforts to address shared global challenges. Peace, Security, and Geopolitical Conflicts The War in Ukraine: A Winter of Uncertainty-The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated significantly this week, with a renewed focus on energy infrastructure. Reports indicate that Russia launched a coordinated assault involving 16 ballistic missiles and over 200 drones, targeting civilian and energy-related infrastructure. The human and economic toll is severe: more than half a million households are currently without electricity. As the region braces for winter, the destruction of power grids poses a humanitarian catastrophe. Hospitals, water treatment facilities, and heating systems are failing, which will inevitably lead to increased mortality rates and mass displacement. Diplomatically, the stalemate persists. While international engagement continues, the fundamental divide regarding territorial sovereignty, security guarantees, and the terms of a potential ceasefire remains unbridgeable. The conflict continues to act as a primary driver of instability in European defense policy and global food supply chains. Middle East Maritime Security Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have entered a new phase of uncertainty. The potential for direct confrontation involving Iran has placed global maritime security at the center of international concern. The Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Bab el Mandeb Strait—the world’s most critical maritime "choke points"—are currently under threat. For the global economy, this insecurity is not merely a regional issue; it is a systemic risk. The threat to commercial vessels has led to a spike in insurance premiums and forced shipping companies to reroute, adding weeks to transit times and significantly increasing the cost of fuel, food, and manufactured goods. For import-dependent economies, particularly in Africa, these disruptions are catastrophic. They exacerbate foreign exchange shortages, fuel domestic inflation, and erode the fiscal capacity of governments to provide essential services to their populations. Economy, Trade, and Energy China’s Economic Performance China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a third-quarter GDP growth rate of 4.5% year-on-year, an improvement from the 4.3% recorded in the second quarter. While this demonstrates a degree of resilience, the underlying data reveals a complex picture. Growth is heavily concentrated in manufacturing and high-tech sectors, while the property market remains a significant drag on the economy. For the global south, China’s performance is a bellwether. As a primary consumer of minerals and agricultural commodities, China’s industrial output directly impacts commodity prices. However, the reliance on Chinese investment and development finance necessitates a cautious approach, as internal Chinese economic pressures could lead to a contraction in outward capital flows. Energy Security and the Transition Challenge Energy security has become the defining economic challenge of the decade. Governments are struggling to balance the immediate need for affordable energy to curb inflation with the long-term imperative of climate commitments. The vulnerability of global supply chains—highlighted by the maritime tensions mentioned above—has made the transition to renewable energy not just an environmental goal, but a strategic necessity. However, the transition is fraught with inequality. While advanced economies have the capital to invest in grid modernization and energy storage, developing nations face a "financing gap." Without international support to mobilize climate finance and technology transfer, the transition risks creating a two-tiered global economy: one that is energy-secure and green, and another that remains trapped in a cycle of high-cost, high-pollution fossil fuel dependence. Trade Policy and Industrial Competitiveness The global trade landscape is shifting toward protectionism as nations seek to secure their domestic industries. China’s manufacturing dominance has triggered a wave of trade policy adjustments globally. For developing nations, this fragmentation is a double-edged sword. While it creates opportunities for companies to diversify their manufacturing bases, it also raises the cost of essential technologies. The solution for many, particularly in Africa, lies in regional integration. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a vital mechanism to reduce reliance on external markets and build a more robust, intra-continental industrial base. Climate, Water, and Environmental Risks Climate change is no longer a future threat; it is a current economic reality. This week saw continued evidence that extreme weather events—floods, droughts, and landslides—are systematically dismantling the development gains of the last decade. When a drought destroys a harvest, it does more than cause food insecurity; it triggers a chain reaction that forces governments to divert funds from education and healthcare to emergency relief. This cycle of "disaster-relief-reconstruction" prevents long-term capital accumulation. To break this cycle, the international community must prioritize "climate-resilient infrastructure." This requires not only funding but also the implementation of sophisticated early-warning systems and disaster-preparedness frameworks that are accessible to the most vulnerable communities. Public Health and Humanitarian Emergencies The outbreak of the Bundibugyo virus (a strain of Ebola) has reached alarming proportions. As of October 23, the World Health Organization reported 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The spread to Kenya and Nigeria underscores the extreme difficulty of containing pathogens in a highly mobile, interconnected world. The response to this outbreak is being severely hampered by insecurity and the degradation of local health systems. In many regions, conflict has destroyed clinics and forced the flight of medical personnel. This crisis highlights a critical lesson: public health is a national security issue. Without investment in local laboratories, medical supply chains, and cross-border disease surveillance, the world remains perpetually vulnerable to the next pandemic. Technology and Artificial Intelligence The Global AI Race Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as the new frontier of geopolitical competition. The race to dominate AI is not just about software; it is about the physical infrastructure—semiconductors, data centers, and massive amounts of electricity. This has created a new link between technological progress and energy security. Countries that fail to secure the necessary computing infrastructure risk being left behind. The concern is that the economic benefits of AI—productivity gains in manufacturing, healthcare, and finance—will accrue only to a handful of nations, further widening the global inequality gap. Digital Sovereignty The concept of "digital sovereignty" is gaining traction. Nations are realizing that relying on foreign providers for critical digital infrastructure (such as cloud services, digital identity, and communication networks) poses a strategic risk. Moving forward, the goal for many nations will be to foster local innovation and develop domestic technical expertise. While this is a long-term endeavor, it is essential for protecting sensitive data and ensuring that digital tools are used to serve local development priorities, such as precision agriculture and remote education. Conclusion The events of the week ending October 25, 2026, demonstrate that the world is in a period of "polycrisis." The links between a missile strike in Kyiv, a shipping delay in the Red Sea, and a virus outbreak in the DRC are not coincidental; they are symptomatic of a global system that is increasingly fragile. Peace and security can no longer be viewed in isolation from economic stability, environmental health, and technological capacity. As we look toward the remainder of the year, the path forward requires a shift from reactive crisis management to proactive, collaborative governance. Only through sustained international cooperation, transparent institutions, and a commitment to equitable development can the global community hope to navigate these interconnected challenges and ensure a stable future for all.

By Staff Writer October 25, 2026 (ENA) Ethiopia’s key developments this week highlighted an interconnected national agenda: strengthening African leadership, accelerating economic transformation, building institutional capacity and safeguarding strategic interests amid a rapidly changing regional and global order. From the 12th Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa to the inauguration of the Megech Dam, the country’s engagements reflected a broader effort to connect continental cooperation with tangible development outcomes at home. Economic reforms, agricultural modernization, technological capacity-building and the National Dialogue further underscored the importance of building a resilient state capable of translating national ambitions into lasting results. At the same time, discussions surrounding Red Sea access, Abay River including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and regional security highlighted the complex geopolitical environment in which Ethiopia is pursuing its development priorities. Tana Forum Puts African Leadership and Economic Sovereignty in Focus The 12th Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa brought African leaders, policymakers and experts to Bahir Dar to examine pathways to peace amid economic uncertainty, geopolitical competition and shifting global power dynamics. Addressing the forum, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized the need for African-led solutions, stronger collective action and economic sovereignty, stressing the importance of enabling the continent to shape its own future rather than remain on the margins of global decision-making. The African Union echoed the call for greater cooperation and strategic independence, underscoring the importance of collective capacity in navigating an increasingly complex international environment. Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama described the Tana Forum as an authentic African platform for candid reflection and strategic foresight. The gathering provided an opportunity to assess the continent’s security challenges and explore solutions grounded in African realities, priorities and experiences. Prime Minister Abiy’s engagements with Kenya’s Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo further reinforced the diplomatic dimension of the gathering. His joint visit with President Mahama to Fasilides Castle in Gondar also brought Ethiopia’s historical heritage into the wider program of high-level engagements. Beyond the discussions themselves, the forum raised a fundamental question: how can Africa translate its abundant resources, demographic potential and collective influence into greater economic independence and geopolitical agency? For Ethiopia, the gathering offered an opportunity to contribute to this continental debate while strengthening engagement with African partners. Megech Dam Links Infrastructure with Food and Water Security While the Tana Forum focused on Africa’s strategic future, the inauguration of the Megech Dam in Gondar demonstrated how Ethiopia is pursuing development through investment in critical infrastructure. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed officially inaugurated the project, which has a storage capacity of 185 million cubic meters and is expected to support irrigation across more than 17,000 hectares of farmland. The dam will also provide drinking water to Gondar and surrounding towns. Its anticipated benefits extend beyond water storage. By supporting irrigation, the project is expected to strengthen agricultural productivity, improve food security and reduce farmers’ dependence on seasonal rainfall. It also offers opportunities for employment, fisheries, tourism and urban agriculture. The project illustrates the relationship between infrastructure investment and broader economic transformation. Reliable water supplies can support agricultural production, expand economic activity and improve livelihoods, particularly when complemented by effective management and access to markets. Prime Minister Abiy highlighted the overcoming of longstanding implementation challenges through the Medemer philosophy and emphasized the importance of further development in Gondar. President Mahama, who attended the inauguration, said the project had inspired renewed efforts to advance Ghana’s long-delayed Pwalugu Irrigation Project. His remarks underscored the potential for African countries to learn from one another’s development experiences and adapt successful approaches to their own circumstances. The Megech Dam thus represents more than an engineering achievement. It reflects the broader challenge of converting natural resources into productive assets that support food security, employment and sustainable economic growth. Indigenous Capacity at the Heart of Economic Transformation Ethiopia’s development agenda also places growing emphasis on indigenous capacity—the ability to design, implement, operate and sustain projects through domestic expertise and institutions. Infrastructure alone cannot guarantee lasting transformation. Its long-term value depends on the availability of skilled professionals, effective institutions, appropriate technologies and productive industries capable of supporting and expanding the investments made. Economic developments during the week reflected this wider ambition. Ethiopia and the United States Treasury reaffirmed their partnership in advancing economic reforms and bilateral engagement, while investment outreach to businesses from the United Arab Emirates highlighted opportunities for longer-term commercial partnerships. Meanwhile, Airbus projected that passenger traffic in Ethiopia could grow sixfold over the next 20 years, pointing to substantial potential for aviation and related services. Realizing that growth will require sustained investment in infrastructure, workforce development and operational capacity. Agriculture also remained central to the country’s development priorities, with continued efforts to strengthen productivity and build a more sustainable agricultural sector. These priorities are mutually reinforcing. Economic reforms can help create conditions for investment, infrastructure can expand productive capacity, and technology and skills can improve efficiency and competitiveness. Ultimately, the impact of these initiatives will be measured by their contribution to employment, domestic industries, household incomes and improved living standards. Strengthening indigenous capacity is therefore essential to ensuring that Ethiopia’s development ambitions are not only achieved but sustained over the long term. Red Sea Access and Regional Geopolitics Remain Strategic Priorities Ethiopia’s development ambitions are closely connected to its geopolitical environment, particularly the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor. Discussions during the week highlighted the strategic importance of maritime access, regional stability and the competition among external powers around one of the world’s significant commercial and security corridors. Ambassador Zerihun Abebe emphasized Ethiopia’s geographic position and historical connections to the Red Sea, framing maritime access as an important issue for the country’s long-term strategic and economic interests. As a landlocked country reliant on maritime routes for international trade, Ethiopia has a direct interest in secure, reliable and economically viable access to global markets. Developments around the Red Sea therefore have implications not only for national security but also for trade, logistics and economic competitiveness. Advisor to the Prime Minister on East African Affairs, Getachew Reda, also underscored Ethiopia’s pivotal geopolitical position. Meanwhile, Professor Al Mariam expressed concern over Eritrea’s policies and their implications for regional stability, while criticizing the Cairo–Asmara relationship. These assessments reflect the perspectives of the respective commentators amid continuing regional tensions. The GERD and Ethiopia’s relations with Egypt also remained part of the wider debate. Egyptian analyst Magdi Khalil argued that attempts to obstruct the dam had been a mistake and advocated strategic relations between the two countries. His position highlights the potential benefits of moving beyond confrontation toward constructive engagement. The GERD is central to Ethiopia’s electricity-generation ambitions, while Nile water security remains a major concern for Egypt. Sustained dialogue, cooperation and mutually beneficial arrangements are important to addressing these concerns and reducing tensions. The broader challenge for the region is to reconcile legitimate national interests with the shared need for peace, secure trade routes and economic cooperation. Pursuing strategic priorities through diplomacy and practical engagement offers a more sustainable basis for regional stability than prolonged confrontation. National Dialogue Seeks a Foundation for Lasting Consensus Alongside development and diplomacy, Ethiopia’s National Dialogue continued to focus on addressing longstanding political, social and governance questions through an inclusive process. Organized around eight pillars, the initiative seeks to create space for dialogue on issues affecting the country’s political arrangements, institutions, social relations and future direction. Its significance lies in the possibility of building a broader foundation for consensus in a country whose stability and development depend, in part, on the ability to manage differences constructively. Moving from deliberation toward consensus is an important step, but the process’s long-term value will depend on the inclusiveness of participation, the credibility of its outcomes and the extent to which areas of agreement can be translated into meaningful action. The week’s discussions among African Supreme Audit Institutions also highlighted the importance of institutional accountability and cooperation. Effective oversight of public resources is critical to ensuring that development commitments deliver tangible benefits and that public institutions maintain public trust. Together, these efforts point to a central requirement for sustainable national progress: institutions must not only deliver services and development but also promote accountability, confidence and constructive engagement. Human Capital and Technology Shape Future Competitiveness Ethiopia’s longer-term development ambitions increasingly depend on its ability to equip its population for a technology-driven global economy. Discussions during the week highlighted artificial intelligence, digital skills and private-sector investment in human-capital development, reflecting the growing importance of technological competence across industries. As digital technologies reshape production, services and employment, investment in skills is becoming an essential component of national competitiveness. However, the benefits of technological advancement depend on more than access to digital tools. Quality education, practical training, research, effective institutions and private-sector participation are equally important. These priorities complement Ethiopia’s infrastructure and economic reform agenda. Roads, dams, transport networks and digital systems create opportunities, but skilled people and capable institutions are needed to operate them efficiently and convert investment into productivity. Building human capital is therefore not a separate development objective; it is a foundation for sustaining economic growth, expanding employment and strengthening Ethiopia’s capacity to compete in an increasingly technology-driven world. Connecting National Transformation with African Ambitions Taken together, this week’s developments reveal a common thread linking Ethiopia’s domestic priorities with its regional and continental engagement. The Tana Forum placed African-led solutions and economic sovereignty at the center of discussions on peace and security. The Megech Dam demonstrated how investment in water infrastructure can advance agriculture and food security. Economic reforms, aviation growth and technological skills highlighted the importance of expanding productive capacity, while the National Dialogue and accountability initiatives underscored the role of institutions in building lasting stability. At the same time, debates over Red Sea access, the GERD and regional security demonstrated that Ethiopia’s development trajectory is inseparable from the geopolitical environment surrounding it. The central challenge is to turn ambition into measurable outcomes: stronger institutions, productive investment, skilled human capital, improved livelihoods and constructive regional partnerships. Ethiopia’s ability to advance these priorities will depend on how effectively it mobilizes domestic capacity, attracts sustainable investment, manages national differences and engages with its neighbors. Ultimately, national development and African leadership are interconnected pursuits. A more productive and institutionally resilient Ethiopia can contribute more effectively to continental cooperation, while a more peaceful, integrated and economically confident Africa can create greater opportunities for Ethiopia’s own transformation.

By Staff Writer October 25, 2026 (ENA) The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), marking 119 years of institutional development, represents a longstanding pillar of Ethiopia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security. From defending the country’s independence to participating in international peacekeeping operations and expanding domestic defense manufacturing, the institution has continued to evolve in response to changing national, regional and global security demands. Today, the ENDF is pursuing a transformation that extends beyond conventional military strength. Reforms in organizational structure, professional training, technological development and defense production are intended to strengthen its operational capabilities and reduce dependence on external suppliers. At the same time, its contributions to peace and security at national, regional and international levels remain important dimensions of its institutional responsibilities. The development of the force reflects the relationship between national defense, institutional resilience and technological capacity. Its future effectiveness will depend not only on the equipment it possesses, but also on the professionalism of its personnel, the strength of its institutions and its ability to contribute to lasting peace. Resilience Legacy Ethiopia’s military history is closely connected with its struggle to preserve independence and territorial integrity. Across successive generations, the country’s armed forces have defended national sovereignty while adapting to changing political circumstances, military doctrines and technological developments. The ENDF’s historical legacy includes the wider tradition of Ethiopian resistance to colonial aggression, notably the victory at Adwa in 1896, as well as the military experiences that shaped the country’s subsequent defense institutions. These historical milestones preceded the establishment of the modern army and helped shape the national consciousness surrounding sovereignty and independence. Over the decades, the armed forces have undergone changes in command structures, training systems, equipment and operational responsibilities. The contemporary ENDF is building on this historical experience while seeking to develop a more professional, technologically capable and institutionally resilient force. The reform agenda pursued in recent years places particular emphasis on organizational unity, operational readiness, specialized capabilities and modern military science. In July 2026, ENDF Chief of Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula said the force had strengthened its unity, expanded its organizational structure and continued modernizing its equipment and technology amid an increasingly complex security environment. These efforts, he said, were intended to reinforce its capacity to safeguard Ethiopia’s sovereignty. The significance of this transformation lies in its effort to connect historical experience with the requirements of contemporary national defense. A modern military must combine discipline and institutional continuity with scientific knowledge, technical expertise and the capacity to respond to rapidly changing security conditions. A Pillar of National Peace The ENDF’s principal constitutional responsibility is to defend Ethiopia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Its contribution to national peace also involves protecting the country against armed threats, responding to security emergencies and supporting conditions in which citizens can pursue their social and economic activities in safety. National peace, however, extends beyond military operations. Sustainable stability requires functioning institutions, political dialogue, reconciliation, respect for the law and public confidence. The defense force can contribute to these objectives by maintaining professionalism, observing constitutional responsibilities and protecting civilians in accordance with applicable law. The ENDF’s experience in complex security environments has reinforced the importance of coordination, intelligence, training and operational preparedness. Its ongoing institutional reforms seek to strengthen these capabilities while adapting to emerging threats. The force’s relationship with the public is equally important. National defense is most effective when the military operates as a professional institution serving the country and its people, rather than a particular political interest. Maintaining political neutrality, respecting civilian authority and upholding the rights of citizens are essential to sustaining public trust. The military’s role in national peace should therefore be assessed not only through its ability to confront armed threats, but also through its adherence to the law, protection of civilians and contribution to an environment conducive to reconciliation and development. In a country with diverse communities and complex social and political dynamics, lasting peace requires cooperation among security institutions, public authorities, communities and other stakeholders. The ENDF’s professional conduct and institutional accountability are important to this broader national effort. Regional Security Ethiopia occupies a strategically important position in the Horn of Africa, a region where security developments frequently cross-national borders. The ENDF’s contribution to regional peace includes cooperation with neighboring countries and participation in regional security mechanisms. Ethiopia has maintained an important role in the Eastern Africa Standby Force, an African regional arrangement designed to support peace operations and respond to crises. In May 2026, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula reaffirmed Ethiopia’s commitment to regional peace and security during discussions with the outgoing and incoming leadership of the Eastern Africa Standby Force. The meeting highlighted the importance of regional cooperation in addressing shared security challenges. Such cooperation demonstrates that national defense and regional stability are interconnected. Information sharing, military coordination, joint preparedness and professional exchanges can help countries respond more effectively to threats that no single state can address independently. The ENDF’s regional responsibilities must also be understood within the broader principle that durable security cannot be achieved through military measures alone. Diplomatic engagement, peaceful settlement of disputes, economic cooperation and respect for national sovereignty remain essential to preventing conflicts and strengthening relations among neighboring countries. A stable Horn of Africa would create greater opportunities for regional trade, infrastructure development, investment and economic integration. By contributing to legitimate regional security arrangements and supporting cooperative approaches to shared threats, Ethiopia’s defense institutions can help create conditions for these wider development objectives. International Peacekeeping One of the most visible expressions of Ethiopia’s contribution to international peace has been its participation in United Nations peacekeeping operations. Ethiopian personnel have served in international missions for decades, reflecting the country’s longstanding engagement with multilateral efforts to maintain peace and protect communities affected by conflict. According to the United Nations, Ethiopia’s participation in UN-authorized operations dates back to 1951, when Ethiopian personnel served as part of the multinational force in the Korean War. Since then, Ethiopian military personnel have contributed to peace and security operations in different parts of the world. A prominent example is the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), established in 2011 to help stabilize the disputed Abyei area between Sudan and South Sudan. The mission monitors security arrangements, supports the protection of civilians and humanitarian personnel, and contributes to efforts to prevent renewed violence. The deployment of Ethiopian troops to Abyei followed an agreement reached by Sudanese and South Sudanese representatives in Addis Ababa. The mission illustrates how Ethiopian military personnel have supported internationally mandated security arrangements in a sensitive border region. Ethiopian personnel have also served in other United Nations missions, including operations in South Sudan. Their responsibilities have included supporting civilian protection, maintaining security in designated areas and helping create conditions for humanitarian activities and political processes. These experiences have given Ethiopian peacekeepers opportunities to work within multinational command structures, cooperate with personnel from different countries and apply international peacekeeping standards in demanding operational environments. International peacekeeping also strengthens professional experience. Service in multinational missions exposes military personnel to different approaches to logistics, communication, civilian protection and operational coordination. Lessons gained from these assignments can contribute to training and institutional development at home. The broader significance of Ethiopia’s peacekeeping record is that military capability can serve purposes beyond national defense. When deployed under an authorized mandate and in accordance with international law, disciplined military personnel can help protect vulnerable populations, support humanitarian access and contribute to efforts to restore stability. Defense Technology, Industrial Capacity Alongside its peace and security responsibilities, the ENDF is pursuing a transformation in military technology and domestic production. The objective is to strengthen the country’s ability to manufacture, maintain and sustain essential defense equipment while developing the technical expertise required for modern military operations. For a country with extensive security responsibilities, dependence on foreign suppliers can affect the availability, maintenance and long-term sustainability of military equipment. Developing domestic production capacity can help reduce these vulnerabilities, retain technical knowledge and build a stronger industrial foundation for national defense. Ethiopia’s defense industrial institutions provide important examples of this approach. The Homicho Ammunition Engineering Complex is associated with domestic ammunition production, while the wider defense industry has been working to strengthen capabilities in equipment manufacturing, engineering and maintenance. These facilities illustrate how defense production can bring together mechanical engineering, industrial processes, technical training and specialized manufacturing. Their strategic importance lies not simply in the products they manufacture, but also in the knowledge and skills developed through sustained industrial activity. Developing domestic expertise in this field can also expand opportunities for engineering research and technical education. Another significant step came in June 2026, when the Information Network Security Administration and the Ethiopian Air Force signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a drone technology center and strengthen research, laboratory cooperation and aerospace capabilities. The initiative is intended to support innovation and the development of local expertise in unmanned aerial systems. In August 2026, the ENDF and the Ethiopian Artificial Intelligence Institute also signed a cooperation agreement to explore the application of artificial intelligence in areas including logistics, military training, cybersecurity, military healthcare, air operations and electronic warfare. The agreement points to a broader shift in defense modernization. Military effectiveness increasingly depends on the ability to collect, process and use information, maintain secure communications and support rapid, informed decision-making. Artificial intelligence and related digital technologies could contribute to these objectives, although their operational benefits will depend on research, testing, qualified personnel and effective implementation. These initiatives demonstrate that Ethiopia’s defense transformation is not limited to acquiring modern equipment. It also involves building the scientific, industrial and educational capabilities required to develop and sustain advanced systems. Human Capital Dimension Technology alone cannot create an effective defense institution. Modern military systems require skilled operators, engineers, technicians, researchers, maintenance specialists and commanders capable of applying scientific knowledge to operational requirements. For this reason, investment in military education and professional development is central to the ENDF’s modernization. Military academies, specialized training institutions and cooperation with civilian research organizations can help develop the expertise needed to operate sophisticated equipment and maintain complex systems. The partnership between the ENDF, the Ethiopian Air Force, the Information Network Security Administration and the Ethiopian Artificial Intelligence Institute illustrates the potential value of cooperation between defense institutions and the wider scientific community. Such partnerships can strengthen research capacity, encourage the exchange of technical knowledge and support the development of locally relevant solutions. They can also help cultivate a generation of Ethiopian engineers and researchers whose expertise may contribute to defense manufacturing and other technology-intensive sectors. Domestic defense production can generate benefits beyond the military when it develops transferable industrial skills, strengthens engineering capacity and encourages research and innovation. The long-term objective is to build a system in which training, research, manufacturing and operational requirements reinforce one another. This would enable Ethiopia to develop more of the expertise necessary to maintain its defense capabilities while creating a stronger foundation for technological advancement. Self-Reliance The ENDF’s industrial and technological transformation forms part of Ethiopia’s wider pursuit of productive capacity and economic self-reliance. Similar priorities are evident in the country’s efforts to expand agricultural production, develop mineral resources, strengthen manufacturing and invest in scientific knowledge. Defense production has a distinct purpose because it is directly connected to national security. Nevertheless, it can contribute to broader industrial development by encouraging specialized engineering, technical training and domestic manufacturing. The development of ammunition production, engineering facilities and drone research demonstrates the range of capabilities required to build a more self-reliant defense sector. These initiatives can help strengthen maintenance capacity, improve the availability of selected equipment and create opportunities for domestic technical expertise. It is important, however, to distinguish progress in selected areas from complete self-sufficiency. Modern military systems depend on extensive supply chains involving specialized components, software, materials and technical knowledge. Building sustainable domestic capacity is therefore a continuing process that requires investment, research, reliable production standards and international technical cooperation where necessary. The strongest measure of progress is not the number of factories established or the equipment acquired, but the ability to produce reliable systems, maintain them over time, develop skilled personnel and meet clearly identified national defense requirements. A more capable domestic defense industry can strengthen strategic autonomy by giving Ethiopia greater control over parts of its supply chains. It can also improve the country’s capacity to respond to changing security requirements without relying exclusively on external procurement. The Road Ahead As the ENDF marks 119 years of institutional development, its future will be shaped by its ability to combine historical experience with professional standards, technological innovation and a commitment to peace. Its responsibilities remain broad: protecting national sovereignty, contributing to domestic security within the law, supporting regional stability and participating in international peacekeeping. Meeting these responsibilities requires an institution that is well trained, technically capable, disciplined and accountable. The development of domestic defense industries, drone technology and artificial intelligence cooperation indicates a growing emphasis on technological preparedness. Sustaining these efforts will require stronger research institutions, skilled human resources, effective industrial management and continued adaptation to changing military technologies. Equally important is the relationship between security and peace. Military readiness can deter threats and help protect communities, but lasting stability also depends on dialogue, diplomacy, reconciliation and cooperation among nations and communities. The ENDF’s long-term contribution will be strengthened when professional defense capabilities complement these wider efforts. The force’s 119-year institutional journey thus represents both a historical legacy and a continuing responsibility. Its achievements in national defense, regional cooperation, international peacekeeping and technological development provide a foundation on which further progress can be built. Ultimately, the strength of the Ethiopian National Defense Force will be measured not only by its capacity to defend the country, but also by its professionalism, its contribution to a secure regional environment and its ability to adapt responsibly to the demands of modern defense. By combining institutional resilience with technological advancement and a sustained commitment to peace, the ENDF can continue to serve as an important pillar of Ethiopia’s sovereignty and national development.

Addis Ababa, October 23, 2026 (ENA) — Egypt and Türkiye have renewed their dispute over maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean following a decision by Libya’s eastern-based House of Representatives to endorse a 2019 maritime agreement between Ankara and the authorities in Tripoli. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry declared the move “null and void,” arguing that the ratification infringes on Egypt’s sovereign rights and has no legal effect. Türkiye, meanwhile, maintains that the arrangement is consistent with its interpretation of international maritime law. The dispute centers on a memorandum signed in November 2019 by Türkiye and Libya’s then internationally recognized Government of National Accord to define maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean. Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus opposed the agreement, arguing that it conflicts with their maritime claims. The latest diplomatic clash reflects broader geopolitical rivalries involving Egypt and other regional actors over maritime jurisdiction, natural resources, security, and political influence. Egypt has faced criticism over its regional policies, with analysts questioning whether its pursuit of strategic interests could contribute to instability and intensify competition over regional resources. For instance, reports recently showed that Egyptian strikes massacred at least 200 Sudanese miners and wounded many others at mining sites in Sudan’s North Al-Wadi area. The reported attacks have raised concerns over civilian safety and Egypt’s involvement in Sudan’s ongoing conflict. Some observers view the reported attacks as part of Egypt’s broader involvement in Sudan, where competing domestic and external interests have complicated efforts to end the war. In a recent interview with ENA, Abdulshakur Abdulsamad, Senior Researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies and Regional Integration Initiative, argued that Egypt seeks to prolong the war in Sudan to continue benefiting from the country’s water resources. The ongoing conflict could allow Egypt to benefit from larger-than-usual quantities of water that Sudan has been unable to utilize, the senior researcher noted. Egypt’s relations with Ethiopia have also been strained by disagreements over Nile water utilization. Cairo has opposed aspects of Ethiopia’s development plans, particularly the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), while Ethiopia maintains its right to use its natural resources for development, including electricity generation. The dispute highlights longstanding differences between upstream and downstream countries over equitable water utilization and regional cooperation. Egypt’s role in Sudan’s ongoing conflict has also drawn scrutiny from political analysts, who question whether Cairo’s support for the Sudanese Armed Forces could affect prospects for peace and strengthen its influence over Sudan’s political future. The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, which began on April 15, 2023, has devastated Sudan’s economy and infrastructure, displaced millions of people, and disrupted regional trade. Food and Agriculture Organization estimates indicate that Sudan’s grain production in 2025 declined by 22 percent compared with the previous year. Some analysts argue that Egypt is pursuing strategic interests in Sudan in ways that could prolong the conflict. Israel, meanwhile, criticized the maritime deal, accusing its regional rival Türkiye of destabilizing the Eastern Mediterranean. The dispute has renewed attention to the region’s overlapping maritime claims and potential energy resources. Cairo is particularly concerned that the agreement could affect hydrocarbon exploration rights and undermine its regional partnerships. Türkiye insists that the pact remains valid, setting the stage for a sharper diplomatic confrontation over maritime boundaries. According to reports, Egypt supports Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA) in eastern Libya primarily to secure its approximately 1,100-kilometer desert border, combat Islamist militant groups, and counter the influence of regional rivals such as Türkiye. The eastern Libyan parliament’s decision to ratify the agreement previously signed between Türkiye and the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord signals a potential shift that directly challenges Cairo’s position in the Eastern Mediterranean. The parliament, aligned with eastern Libya and based in Tobruk, reversed years of opposition to the Türkiye-Libya maritime deal following the election of a new speaker, Al-Salhin Abdelnabi al-Obeidi. By aligning eastern authorities with an agreement originally signed by western Libya’s Tripoli-based authorities, the decision could indicate a shift toward a more unified Libyan position on the pact. The European Union opposed the ratification, backing Greece’s position and maintaining that the agreement infringes on the maritime rights of an EU member state.

By Tison Tesfay   October 22, 2026 (ENA) Not every war that devastates a country necessarily runs counter to the interests of its neighbors. For some regional powers, prolonged instability presents an ideal opportunity to expand influence, reshape political calculations, and postpone the reckoning with a neighbor that should be regarded as an equal. In the case of relations between Egypt and Sudan, the question is no longer whether Egypt is involved in the Sudanese war, but rather the extent of its involvement and the deeper strategic objectives Cairo seeks to achieve by fueling the conflict through support for a particular military faction. In this context, political analyst Mohamed Al-Arrousi argues that Egypt’s continued intervention in Sudan threatens the country’s sovereignty and endangers stability throughout the Horn of Africa. A careful reading of developments on the ground and in the political arena confirms that Egypt’s approach in Sudan is aimed less at ending the war than at ensuring its continuation and securing a compliant, pro-Egyptian regime, even if this comes at the cost of prolonging the suffering of the Sudanese people and exhausting the country’s national capabilities. Water Strategy, Resource Plunder, and Fears over the GERD The figures reveal the scale of the systematic destruction inflicted on Sudan’s economic infrastructure since the conflict erupted on April 15, 2023. Estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) indicate that grain production in 2025 declined by 22 percent compared with the previous year and stood approximately 19 percent below the average of the preceding five years. The World Bank also reported that Sudan’s gross domestic product contracted by 29.4 percent in 2023, followed by a further contraction of 14 percent in 2024. This economic and political paralysis serves vital and direct Egyptian strategic interests. If Sudan achieves stability and recovers, it will be able to make independent decisions regarding the management of Nile projects, foremost among them the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is essential for Sudan in mitigating devastating floods and benefiting from the vital electricity supplies it receives from the dam to develop eastern Sudan. Moreover, a stable Sudan in control of its own affairs would work to regulate its water allocations. This means that the huge volumes of water that have been wasted as they flow from Sudan into Egypt would cease, a prospect that Egyptian strategic calculations fear and regard as a threat to the country’s customary water security. That is precisely why Egyptian politicians work day and night to keep Sudan mired in instability, while seeking to preserve a regional order in which Sudan remains dependent and unable to fully control its own resources. Egypt’s gains from Sudan’s weakening extend far beyond the Nile water issue. Sudan’s instability also raises concerns over the illicit extraction and smuggling of its wealth, with reports of cross-border trafficking involving natural resources, livestock, and raw materials threatening Sudan’s economic sovereignty. Cario’s politicians exploit the state of chaos and the absence of border controls to support its economy and meet its needs at the expense of the resources of the exhausted Sudanese people. As senior researcher Abdushakur Abdelsamad emphasizes, Egypt’s approach views the exhaustion of Sudan as a guarantee that it will be unable to demand its fair share of water or exploit its vast lands and resources. This ensures the uninterrupted flow of water and wealth northward while keeping Sudan shackled by dependency and subordination. The Border Dispute and the Imposition of a De Facto Reality in Halaib Egypt’s exploitation of Sudan’s weakness is most clearly demonstrated in the issue of the occupied Halaib, Shalateen, and Abu Ramad area. While Sudan has historically insisted on its sovereignty over this strategically important coastal region, Egypt has exploited successive political and military crises in Khartoum to consolidate its military and administrative control and impose a fait accompli. The continuation of the war and the fragmentation of Sudanese institutions provide Egypt with an ideal cover to close this issue politically and diplomatically. Sudan’s leadership has become completely incapable of raising the issue of sovereignty over Halaib or even making a verbal claim to it. This reflects a clear equation of political subordination: tacit acceptance of territorial control in exchange for weapons and diplomatic support. Military Support and Direct Bias Toward One Faction Despite Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s official statements about “protecting Sudanese state institutions”—most recently during his meeting with Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on October 4, 2026—the actual conduct of the Egyptian military goes beyond supporting the concept of the “state” and extends to direct involvement in backing one military party at the expense of the Sudanese people. Egyptian intervention is no longer confined to diplomatic support. A documented Reuters report dated February 2, 2026, revealed satellite imagery and intelligence assessments confirming the deployment of combat drones at Egyptian bases near the Sudanese border for use in supporting Sudanese army operations. This direct technological and military intervention transforms Egypt from a party supposedly sponsoring peace into a direct partner in managing battles on the ground, adding fuel to the fire and prolonging the confrontations. Violation of Sudanese Sovereignty Egyptian military involvement has reached unprecedented levels through an explicit violation of Sudanese sovereignty. Egypt has reportedly massacred at least 200 Sudanese miners and wounded many others in targeting mining sites in Sudan’s North Al-Wadi area. Many observers say the recent civilian attacks are part of Egypt’s direct and indirect involvement in Sudan’s ongoing conflict, aimed at maximizing its own interests. In a recent interview with Ethiopian News Agency (ENA), Abdulshakur Abdulsamad, Senior Researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies and Regional Integration Initiative, underscored that Egypt seeks to prolong the war in Sudan to continue benefiting from the country’s water resources. In that regard, these airstrikes were not merely a violation of international borders and international law, which prohibits the use of force against the territory of other states; they also resulted in civilian casualties among Sudanese miners and other civilians. The widespread protests the bombing sparked in Sudanese cities reflect public anger and condemnation of the suspicious silence of Sudanese authorities, which have been accused of complicity and of abandoning their duty to protect citizens in exchange for Egyptian military assistance. The conduct of military operations inside Sudanese territory confirms that Cairo has come to treat Sudanese airspace and geography as an open security hinterland for its operations, with no regard for the principles of sovereignty or international law. The Regional Hegemonic Agenda and Sudan’s Future Egypt understands that an independent Sudan governed democratically and supported by strong civilian institutions would make decisions based exclusively on Sudanese national interests. These interests could necessarily conflict with Egyptian calculations on water, borders, and regional alliances. According to political commentators, Egypt’s current strategy is aimed at shaping a Sudan that remains weak, fragmented, and dependent on Cairo, unable to fully assert control over its resources or pursue an independent regional agenda. Egypt’s insistence on imposing military solutions and supporting one military faction obstructs any path toward a comprehensive political settlement that includes civilian forces and ensures the restoration of constitutional governance. The objective is not to build peace, but to tighten control over political and military decision-making in Khartoum, allowing Egypt thereafter to exert pressure on the region and obstruct regional development projects that do not serve its immediate interests. Sovereignty Is Not Granted; It Is Reclaimed Sudan’s future and the protection of its sovereignty cannot be secured through dependence on foreign powers that build their interests at the expense of the Sudanese people’s suffering. The true test of the credibility of Egypt’s slogan of “respecting Sudan’s sovereignty” requires an immediate halt to direct military interventions, respect for Sudanese territory and airspace, and an end to arming one particular faction at the expense of a comprehensive political solution. Ultimately, the Sudanese people and their national institutions face an unmistakable reality. A strong and independent Sudan cannot be built as long as its resources and destiny are entrusted to the wishes of regional allies who regard Sudan’s weakness as a source of stability for themselves, and the destruction of its foundations and plunder of its wealth as guarantees of their own influence.

By Dessalegn Kassa   October 22, 2026 (ENA) Ethiopia is entering a new political and economic chapter, seeking to translate its rich historical legacy into sustainable development, stronger democratic institutions, and a more influential regional role. Following the general election held in June 2026, the formation of a new Medemer government in October marks another phase in the country’s efforts to promote national unity, strengthen economic self-reliance, accelerate technological innovation, and deepen regional cooperation. The government’s development agenda centers on strategic investments in energy, agriculture, digital technology, mining, and tourism. From the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) to agricultural modernization and expanding digital public services, these initiatives are intended to strengthen domestic productive capacity, create employment, and improve citizens’ livelihoods. Delivering on these ambitions, however, will require effective institutions, political consensus, inclusive growth, and the equitable distribution of development gains. Ambition for Ethiopian Modernization Ethiopia’s historical experience provides an important foundation for its contemporary ambitions. The ancient Kingdom of Aksum emerged as a major political, commercial, and cultural power, connecting Africa with the Middle East and Asia through trade and diplomacy. The country’s long tradition of statehood and resistance to colonial domination further established its place in world history. Ethiopia seeks to build on this legacy by strengthening its economy, mobilizing domestic resources, modernizing public institutions, and expanding regional integration. Yet historical achievements alone cannot guarantee future prosperity. The country’s continued progress will depend on its ability to address persistent development challenges, broaden economic opportunities, and respond to the needs of its rapidly growing population. Energy and Economic Transformation Despite its abundant natural resources, considerable agricultural potential, and strategic location, Ethiopia continues to face significant economic challenges, including infrastructure gaps, foreign exchange constraints, unemployment, and dependence on imports. Expanding domestic production, strengthening industrial capacity, and diversifying exports remain central to the pursuit of sustainable growth and economic self-reliance. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, inaugurated in September 2025 with an installed capacity of approximately 5,150 megawatts, represents a major milestone in this transformation. Financed substantially through domestic resources, including contributions from Ethiopian citizens and institutions, the project demonstrates the country’s capacity to mobilize national resources for large-scale infrastructure development. Beyond electricity generation, the dam is expected to support industrialization, expand electricity access, and increase opportunities for power exports to neighboring countries. Realizing these benefits will require continued investment in transmission networks, distribution systems, and cross-border electricity connections. Reliable and affordable power can lower production costs, improve industrial productivity, and create more favorable conditions for manufacturing and investment. Alongside energy development, broader economic reforms seek to attract investment, strengthen domestic industries, improve the business environment, and diversify exports. These measures are particularly important for easing foreign exchange pressures, expanding employment, and reducing the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. Digital Transformation Digitalization has become another major pillar of Ethiopia’s development strategy, with technology increasingly used to improve public services, enhance productivity, and create new economic opportunities. Through Digital Ethiopia 2025 and its successor, Digital Ethiopia 2030, the government has pursued the modernization of public administration, the expansion of digital financial services, and the development of skills required to participate in the global digital economy. One prominent initiative is the Five Million Ethiopian Coders Initiative, launched by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in July 2024. The program aims to equip participants with practical skills in web development, Android programming, data analysis, and artificial intelligence. Participation was expanded to seven million by August 2026, reflecting the scale of the country’s digital skills ambitions. Public service delivery is also being transformed through platforms such as Mesob, designed to integrate government procedures and simplify access to services for citizens and businesses. The Fayda national digital identification program, meanwhile, has registered more than 40.9 million people, supporting efforts to establish a more integrated digital public infrastructure. The Personal Data Protection Proclamation provides an additional legal framework for safeguarding personal information. However, the long-term benefits of digitalization will depend on reliable telecommunications infrastructure, affordable internet access, effective cybersecurity, and stronger digital literacy. Ensuring that rural communities and underserved populations can access and use these services will be essential to preventing the digital divide from widening existing inequalities. Mining and Industrial Development Ethiopia’s mineral resources, including gold, potash, industrial minerals, and natural gas, offer opportunities to diversify exports, generate employment, and supply raw materials for domestic industries. Gold is an important source of foreign exchange, while potash and natural gas have the potential to broaden the export base and support industrial development. Figures provided for the sector indicate that mining generated nearly 5.7 billion US dollars in foreign exchange during the 2018 Ethiopian fiscal year, with gold accounting for most of the reported earnings. Gold production by mining companies and traditional miners was estimated at approximately 44 tonnes, reportedly generating around 5.65 billion dollars. These figures require verification against official records, particularly the reporting period, production volume and revenue calculations. The Ministry of Mines has also reportedly set a target of generating 6.7 billion dollars in revenue from the sector during the current fiscal year. The target, its timeframe and the distinction between projected revenue and realized foreign exchange earnings should be confirmed before publication. The government’s ambition extends beyond extracting and exporting raw materials. Strengthening links between mining and domestic manufacturing, including fertilizer production and iron processing, could help retain more economic value within the country, stimulate investment, and create jobs across related industries. Realizing this potential will require sustained investment in geological exploration, processing facilities, transport infrastructure, and technical expertise. Transparent licensing, responsible resource management, environmental safeguards, and meaningful participation by local communities will also be necessary to ensure that mineral wealth contributes to broad-based and sustainable development. Agricultural Productivity and Food Security Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Ethiopia’s economy, supporting millions of livelihoods, supplying domestic markets, and providing raw materials for industry. Improving productivity, strengthening food security, and reducing dependence on imported agricultural commodities are therefore central to the country’s economic transformation agenda. Wheat production has become a major focus of these efforts. Through the National Wheat Development Initiative, Ethiopia has expanded cultivation, particularly through dry-season irrigation, helping increase domestic production and reduce reliance on imports. The expansion of irrigated farming has also demonstrated the potential to increase output beyond traditional rain-fed agricultural cycles. Figures provided for the initiative indicate that irrigated wheat cultivation increased from approximately 20,000 hectares in 2020 to 3.5 million hectares in 2025. Dry-season production reportedly rose from 600,000 quintals to 128 million quintals over the same period. Across the rainy and dry seasons, wheat cultivation was reported to have reached 7.8 million hectares in 2025, with total production of approximately 280 million quintals. Rainy-season output reportedly increased from 53 million quintals in 2020 to 152 million quintals in 2025. In recognition of Ethiopia’s agricultural development efforts, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the FAO Agricola Medal from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in January 2024. Sustaining progress in food production will require continued investment in irrigation, mechanization, improved seeds, fertilizer, agricultural research, storage facilities, and transport networks. At the same time, climate variability, land degradation, rising production costs, and post-harvest losses remain important challenges. Addressing them will require stronger extension services, wider access to agricultural finance, improved market connections, and technologies that enable farmers to increase yields while managing climate-related risks. Tourism and Economic Diversification Ethiopia’s identity as the Land of Origins reflects its ancient history, cultural diversity, and exceptional natural landscapes. These assets provide a foundation for developing tourism into a stronger source of foreign exchange, employment, investment, and local economic growth. The government has promoted initiatives such as Dine for Sheger, Dine for Nation, and Dine for Generations to improve visitor facilities, develop tourism infrastructure, and expand economic opportunities for local communities. In Addis Ababa, projects including Unity Park, Entoto Park, Friendship Park, the Science Museum, and the National Palace Museum have broadened the capital’s cultural and recreational offerings. Regional developments, including Gorgora Eco Resort, Wenchi Dendi Eco Tourism Village, Halala Kela, Elephant Paw Lodge, Denbi Eco Lodge, Shabeely Resort, Haroo Dendi Lodge, and Niin Lee Palm Lodge, have extended tourism investment to different parts of the country. These developments can support local businesses, stimulate demand for agricultural products and handicrafts, and create employment in hospitality, transport, and related services. Their long-term contribution, however, will depend on accessibility, service quality, environmental protection, and effective promotion in international markets. Preserving cultural heritage and natural ecosystems while ensuring that surrounding communities benefit directly from tourism revenues will be essential to building a competitive and sustainable sector. Medemer State The formation of Ethiopia’s new Medemer government in October 2026 marks another phase in the country’s efforts to align political governance with economic transformation. At the center of its political philosophy is Medemer, an Amharic concept associated with addition, synergy, and working together. The philosophy emphasizes collective responsibility, cooperation, and national unity as foundations for addressing differences and pursuing shared development goals. National unity, peace, economic development, and the protection of national interests remain central to the administration’s priorities. Translating these objectives into lasting progress will require stronger democratic institutions, respect for the rule of law, accountable governance, and constructive engagement among political and social groups. Ethiopia’s regional ambitions are also closely linked to these domestic priorities. Deeper cooperation with neighboring countries, expanded trade, improved infrastructure connections, and coordinated approaches to shared security and development challenges can strengthen the country’s position in the Horn of Africa. Regional peace and economic integration will be important not only for cross-border commerce but also for creating a more stable environment for investment and long-term development. Ethiopia’s development agenda brings together investments in energy, digital technology, mining, agriculture, and tourism in an effort to reduce dependence on imports, expand productive capacity, create jobs, and establish a more resilient economy. The new Medemer government adds a political dimension to this agenda by placing national unity, institutional capacity, and collective responsibility alongside economic transformation. Conclusion Ethiopia’s development agenda brings together investments in energy, digital technology, mining, agriculture, and tourism in an effort to reduce dependence on imports, expand productive capacity, create jobs, and establish a more resilient economy. The new Medemer government adds a political dimension to this agenda by placing national unity, institutional capacity, and collective responsibility alongside economic transformation. Ethiopia’s historical legacy offers a source of national confidence, while its natural resources, human capital, and strategic position provide opportunities for further development. Ethiopia’s ongoing effort to rebuild its economic and political landscape demonstrates a commitment to self-determination and long-term self-reliance. By leveraging its strategic location, rich natural resources, and dynamic youth population, the nation has laid foundational building blocks across energy infrastructure, digital systems, modernized agriculture, and cultural tourism. The political framework offered by the Medemer philosophy provides a theoretical blueprint for unifying these sectoral initiatives into a cohesive strategy for national development. Crucially, the new administration devotes in implementation and equitable distribution and ensuring the daily benefits for citizens, ranging from lower living costs and meaningful jobs to transparent governance and social stability through fostering political consensus, strengthening public institutions, and bridging digital and economic divides. Ethiopia, therefore, will not only honor its historic legacy but also secure its position as a resilient, prosperous leader in the Horn of Africa and beyond.

By Selamawit Getachew October 20, 2026 (ENA) Britain’s October 2026 ultimatum to Eritrea exposed a long-standing contradiction at the heart of Isaias Afwerki’s regime. The Asmara administration promotes self-reliance while rejecting fixed national budgets and external dependence. Yet, its system is sustained by the very forces it claims to transcend: indefinite national service drives emigration, while remittances from Eritreans abroad help finance the system that compels them to leave. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced that Eritrea faces a total visa ban for its nationals unless Asmara resumes cooperation on the return of failed asylum seekers and foreign national offenders. Preferential processing for officials has already been withdrawn, and diplomats have been placed under travel limits outside London. This announcement came at a moment when Eritreans formed the largest nationality among small-boat arrivals in the year to June 2026—roughly 5,875 recorded arrivals, or about 18 percent of the total—and ranked second in overall asylum claims, with initial grant rates near 83–84 percent. Although Eritrea dismissed the pressure as a "dismissible political gimmick," the sequence of events requires a closer examination of a political economy that has organized continuous emigration into a remittance resource. That political economy, controlled by Shabia under President Isaias Afwerki since independence, rests on three interlocking pillars: indefinite national service, party ownership of the command economy, and the systematic capture of external financial flows. While appearing distinct, these pillars function as a single mechanism that converts the population into both a captive labor force at home and a source of finance abroad. This framework structured itself around the continuous extraction of value from that emigration, yielding a sustained regime monopoly. Way back in 1997, Eritrea ratified a constitution that has remained unimplemented for nearly three decades. In 2001, independent media outlets were shut down after senior party figures called for democratic elections and constitutional enforcement. As a result, what was once framed as temporary wartime mobilization hardened into a permanent state architecture in which citizenship itself was redefined as an obligation rather than a right. Although national service was formally limited to 18 months under Proclamation 82/1995, it has operated without an end date since the 1998–2000 border war. Secondary school students complete their final year at the Sawa military training center before being assigned to military or civilian roles that can last for decades, earning a meager stipend of 450 to 500 Nakfa a month—roughly 30 USD. Conditions like these are what the UN Commission of Inquiry characterized as “slavery-like,” linking them to arbitrary detention and the collective punishment of families. Such practices drive continuous emigration, where the outflow is not a policy failure but rather a deliberate revenue stream. While resident population estimates hover around 3.6 million, diaspora figures range from roughly 600,000 to 900,000 registered migrants and refugees, with up to one-third of the Eritrean-born population living outside the country. According to UNHCR data for the end of 2025, there were roughly 555,000 refugees plus more than 118,000 asylum seekers—totaling approximately 670,000–679,000 people of concern—with new asylum applications in 2025 alone exceeding 53,000. Although the formal economy remains dominated by Shabia-linked enterprises and the state, private-sector activity outside small family trade is constrained by currency controls, licensing restrictions, and the national-service labor regime. The decisive resource is human capital exported and then taxed; most household survival depends on external transfers estimated at 200 to 300 million USD annually—equivalent to roughly 30 percent of Eritrea's GDP. These flows keep households solvent in an environment of limited domestic opportunity, while a parallel 2 percent diaspora tax is levied on Eritreans abroad and collected through embassies and informal networks. Economic ownership is concentrated in party-controlled structures: the Hidri Trust functions as the central holding vehicle for Shabia’s commercial interests, the Red Sea Trading Corporation holds an effective monopoly on significant imports and serves as a primary channel for foreign exchange, construction firms such as Segen and Bidho execute major works frequently using national-service labor, and Himbol Financial Services manages remittances and related transactions. State banks exist, yet the party retains parallel financial channels outside conventional budgetary oversight, amidst no comprehensive national budget having been published since independence. This dual extraction reduces the need for productive employment creation and creates a closed loop in which indefinite national service and political controls generate flight, which in turn generates remittances and state revenue. When compared to the official doctrine of self-reliance that Eritrea follows—which rejects aid dependency while treating citizens as both free labor and external financiers—isolation from conventional multilateral finance is justified, while political pluralism is framed as a threat to national unity and sovereignty. This produces a distinctive equilibrium in which political power is monopolized, and the regime’s authority on budgets and the precise size of party holdings stay outside public scrutiny. Eritrea’s political economy has converted a significant fraction of its population into a transnational resource, where labor is extracted under coercive conditions while the diaspora supplies foreign exchange, producing an equilibrium of repression and economic stagnation. Consequently, host states are left to absorb the social and fiscal costs, as the ruling Shabia system externalizes those costs while capturing the financial returns. Eritrea’s migration economy is therefore not an unintended by-product of isolation, but the operating logic of a political order that converts its people into the principal resource keeping the regime intact. The stakes are the continuous depletion of a generation and the durability of a closed regime that feeds on it.

The week of October 11–18, 2026, brought renewed conflict, economic uncertainty, climate warnings and rapid technological change across the globe. Developments across the Middle East, Europe, Africa, Asia and the Americas showed how closely security, energy, public finances, humanitarian needs and environmental sustainability are connected. Diplomatic efforts continued, but unresolved agreements and military tensions threatened regional and international stability. Meanwhile, governments weighed the cost of energy support and public debt, while forecasts of a strengthening El Niño and the growing reach of artificial intelligence reinforced the need for coordinated international action. Conflicts and Regional Security Middle East tensions remained acute. Reports of an alleged assault on diplomats from France, Belgium and Poland in the West Bank village of Taybeh during the olive harvest featured among the major events of the week. Reported casualties in Gaza and Yemen, including the deaths of three children in airstrikes in Dhamar, highlighted the human cost of regional hostilities. Tensions involving Saudi Arabia and Iran, alongside reports of attacks on commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, raised concerns about commercial shipping and energy security. Extended disruption to these routes could raise fuel prices, freight charges and insurance costs, spreading economic impacts across global markets. The Russia–Ukraine war continued to threaten European security, with reported attacks on energy infrastructure and residential areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv was ready to observe a ceasefire covering energy facilities, calling on Russia to take concrete steps. European Union discussions also addressed competitiveness, support for Ukraine and the bloc’s long-term budget. Member state governments faced the challenge of balancing defence spending with affordable energy, industrial competitiveness and fiscal stability. In Africa, African Union consultations in Kigali, Rwanda, focused on implementing the Washington Peace Agreement for eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Discussions covered security commitments, disarming armed groups, refugee protection and regional economic cooperation. Sudan’s war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces continued to drive displacement and humanitarian needs, placing pressure on neighbouring countries through refugee movements, border insecurity and demands on public services. Violence and displacement also persisted in parts of the Sahel. In the Indo-Pacific, China and North Korea opened a long-delayed border bridge intended to facilitate trade, even as North Korea announced weapons tests involving submarine-launched cruise missiles. Global Economy and Financial Pressures High energy costs, public debt and uncertainty over investment and growth remained central economic concerns. At the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Bangkok, officials considered the resilience of investment and financial markets amid geopolitical shocks. The IMF warned that energy-support measures were adding to fiscal pressure. Such measures were estimated at about 0.5 percent of global gross domestic product, while public debt in advanced economies was projected to rise from 108 percent of GDP to 115 percent over five years. Developing economies face difficult choices due to limited fiscal space, substantial external financing needs and heavy dependence on imported fuel and food. Currency pressure, volatile commodity markets and higher borrowing costs continue to test financial stability. The IMF projected African growth of 4.5 percent in 2026 and 5 percent in 2027, but insecurity, energy disruptions, climate shocks and reduced development assistance could weaken the outlook. Official development assistance was forecast to fall by a further 12 percent in 2026. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecasts, citing the energy shock and limited gains from the global technology investment boom. Fuel importers face higher transport and production costs, while oil and mineral exporters remain exposed to price volatility. Energy Security and Maritime Trade Energy security connected many of the week’s geopolitical and economic developments. Reports of attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea raised concerns over routes used to transport crude oil and other essential commodities. For African and other developing economies, diversifying energy sources, expanding domestic electricity generation and improving transport infrastructure remain crucial to reducing exposure to external shocks. Renewable energy investment, regional electricity interconnections and efficient logistics offer avenues to strengthen long-term competitiveness. Climate Change and Environmental Risks Climate risks featured prominently, with warnings of a strengthening El Niño, cross-border air pollution and renewed calls for adaptation and climate finance. The World Meteorological Organization’s seasonal outlook indicated that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could rise towards record levels during October–December 2026. A stronger El Niño could alter temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing drought risks in some regions and flooding in others. Potential consequences include crop losses, water shortages, disrupted hydropower generation and higher food prices. For Ethiopia and other African countries, climate variability threatens food production, rural livelihoods and water security. Expanding irrigation, soil conservation, climate-resilient crop varieties and reliable weather information remain central to protecting agricultural productivity. At pre-COP31 meetings in Fiji, Pacific island countries called for stronger emissions reductions, adaptation and climate finance. Fiji announced a contribution of 10 million USD to the Pacific Resilience Facility. The UN climate conference COP31 is scheduled for Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, 2026. Environmental pressures were also evident in Southeast Asia, where Singapore prepared to issue haze-prevention notices to seven companies linked to fires in Indonesia, while Timor-Leste closed schools amid worsening air quality. Water shortages in Mexico’s Jalisco state further highlighted the need for sustainable water management. Technology and Artificial Intelligence Artificial intelligence continued to shape economic competitiveness, public services and national security. In Africa, supported by reliable digital infrastructure, digital technologies could improve agricultural advice, health services, education and public administration. However, these benefits depend on investment in digital connectivity, technical skills and affordable electricity. Major data centres and computing systems require increasing amounts of energy, linking digital development directly to national energy policies and climate goals. ….. Sources: The roundup draws on reporting and analysis from AllAfrica, Al Jazeera, Arab News, The Jordan Times, Channel NewsAsia, Japan’s NHK, Yonhap News Agency, The Hindu, Press Trust of India, Xinhua, Euronews, Deutsche Welle, the Associated Press, Reuters, CBC News, CityNews, LatinNews, ABC News and The Guardian.

By Staff Writer   October 18, 2026 (ENA) Ethiopia has concluded the week with a series of significant political, diplomatic, economic and security developments, underscoring its determination to consolidate domestic stability, deepen international partnerships and strengthen its strategic role in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region. From establishing a six-month caretaker administration in Tigray to advancing economic diplomacy at the 2026 International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Ethiopia has pursued multiple priorities aimed at strengthening national stability and accelerating development. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s telephone conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio further highlighted Ethiopia’s active bilateral engagement. Meanwhile a security briefing for foreign military attachés underscored the government’s emphasis on safeguarding national sovereignty and addressing information gaps surrounding the country’s security situation. Beyond immediate political and security priorities, the week also featured renewed calls for national unity, stronger technological capacity and climate resilience, alongside a broader national ambition to secure reliable maritime access and expand Ethiopia’s contribution to regional peace and economic integration. As Ethiopia begins a new five-year political chapter under the Medemer Government, these developments reflect an interconnected agenda: consolidating peace at home, mobilizing resources for development and advancing the country’s interests through regional cooperation and international engagement. Caretaker Administration in Tigray Region Ethiopia’s federal government has established a six-month caretaker administration for the Tigray Region, with a mandate to restore peace, revive public institutions and services, rebuild war-damaged infrastructure and prepare the ground for free and transparent elections. The decision followed a resolution by the House of Federation and a subsequent binding decision by the Council of Ministers to establish a provisional administration for the region. According to a statement from the Office of the Prime Minister, the measure came after repeated efforts to resolve the conflict through the Pretoria Agreement encountered obstacles attributed to the TPLF leadership. The statement accused the leadership of undermining the peace process and returning to conflict, arguing that the region’s population should not be trapped in a recurring cycle of violence. The federal government emphasized that lasting peace requires prioritizing development, strengthening Tigray’s place within Ethiopia’s federal system and deepening cooperation with the country’s other peoples. The caretaker administration is expected to restore the functioning of government institutions, facilitate the resumption of essential social services, rehabilitate damaged infrastructure and support the return of internally displaced people to their homes. The initiative places institutional recovery, peace and the restoration of essential services at the center of efforts to address the region’s challenges. Its implementation and progress toward credible elections will be important indicators of whether the transitional arrangement can help establish a more stable political environment. Ethiopia Intensifies Economic Diplomacy, Seeks Fresh Investment Capital Ethiopia has stepped up its international economic engagement at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, seeking to translate ongoing economic reforms and progress on debt restructuring into stronger investment partnerships and development financing. The Ethiopian delegation, led by National Bank of Ethiopia Governor Dr. Eyob Tekalign and including State Minister of Finance Tiguist Fisseha, engaged with international financial institutions, development partners and senior financial officials on the country’s economic priorities. The meetings provided a platform to discuss macroeconomic reforms, financial stability, debt sustainability, private investment and financing for Ethiopia’s development ambitions. Governor Eyob emphasized that Ethiopia is increasingly looking beyond debt restructuring toward attracting fresh investment capital and building high-value international partnerships that reflect the country’s market size, economic potential and development priorities. The shift comes as Ethiopia advances negotiations with external creditors. According to the delegation’s account, agreements with bilateral creditors have been finalized, while negotiations with commercial lenders are progressing following an agreement in principle with Eurobond holders. The delegation also held engagements with representatives of international financial institutions and partner countries to explore opportunities for closer cooperation and investment. For Ethiopia, the objective extends beyond securing additional financing. It is also about strengthening investor confidence, expanding access to development resources and ensuring that international partnerships support the country’s long-term economic transformation. As the country continues implementing economic reforms, the ability to convert international commitments into productive investment, employment opportunities and improved livelihoods will remain a central test of its economic diplomacy. Ethiopia Reaffirms Sovereignty as Foreign Military Attachés Receive Security Briefing Ethiopia has reiterated its commitment to safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity as foreign military attachés received an update on the country’s security situation at Bishoftu Air Force Base. The briefing provided foreign military representatives with information on developments over the preceding three weeks, including security incidents and measures taken by the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF). The representatives were also shown weapons reportedly captured during recent security operations in Tigray and adjoining areas. According to accounts of the briefing, the military attachés described the direct exchange as useful in clarifying information gaps and addressing reports circulating on social media and other media platforms. They also expressed support for Ethiopia’s right to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity. High-Level Telephone Diplomacy Strengthens Ethiopia’s International Engagement Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed held separate telephone conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, discussing bilateral relations and regional and multilateral issues of mutual interest. Following his conversation with Netanyahu, the Prime Minister described the exchange as fruitful and constructive, noting that the two leaders discussed bilateral relations and key regional developments. He also reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening cooperation. In his conversation with Rubio, PM Abiy discussed opportunities to translate the longstanding Ethiopia–United States relationship into a more strategic and practical partnership. The Prime Minister welcomed Washington’s assurance of continued support for Ethiopia and emphasized the shared interest in advancing bilateral cooperation and addressing regional and multilateral priorities. The engagements reflect Ethiopia’s continued efforts to maintain high-level dialogue with international partners while advancing its diplomatic and strategic interests. For a country whose economic and security priorities are closely connected to developments across the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and the wider Middle East, sustained diplomatic engagement remains important to building partnerships, addressing shared concerns and supporting regional cooperation. National Flag Day Renews Call for Unity, Consensus and Shared Prosperity Ethiopia marked its 19th National Flag Day on October 12 under the theme “Our Flag for National Consensus and Unity,” renewing calls for national cohesion, respect for diversity and collective responsibility for the country’s future. In his message marking the occasion, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized that national unity is fundamental to Ethiopia’s pursuit of prosperity and that the national flag represents the country’s shared history, sovereignty and strength in diversity. The observance came at a time when consolidating peace, strengthening public institutions and broadening national consensus remain important priorities for Ethiopia’s political transition. Beyond its symbolic significance, National Flag Day offered an opportunity to highlight the importance of dialogue, mutual understanding and cooperation among Ethiopia’s diverse communities. The message reinforced the idea that sustainable development requires more than economic growth: it also depends on social cohesion, shared responsibility and the ability to pursue common national objectives while respecting the country’s diversity. Technology and Meteorological Capacity Advance Climate Resilience Ethiopia has underscored the growing importance of scientific research, technological advancement and reliable data infrastructure in strengthening climate resilience and supporting national development. During a visit to the Ethiopia Meteorology Institute, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed highlighted the institution’s role in generating meteorological information and improving the country’s capacity to anticipate and respond to changing weather conditions. The Prime Minister emphasized the need for continuous data collection, scientific research and technological modernization to strengthen institutional capacity and improve the use of weather and climate information. Reliable meteorological services are critical to several key sectors of the Ethiopian economy, particularly agriculture, water management, energy, transportation and disaster preparedness. Improved forecasting and early-warning systems can help communities and public institutions prepare for extreme weather events, reduce potential losses and make better-informed development decisions. As climate-related risks increasingly affect African economies, strengthening national forecasting and early-warning capacity will also contribute to wider efforts to protect livelihoods and support sustainable development. Ethiopia’s New Political Chapter Places Sea Access and Regional Integration in Focus As Ethiopia enters a new five-year political chapter under the Medemer Government, sovereign sea access remains a prominent national strategic and economic ambition. As one of the world’s most populous landlocked countries, Ethiopia has a substantial interest in securing dependable access to maritime trade routes through mutually beneficial arrangements with regional partners. Reliable sea access could help reduce logistical constraints, improve export competitiveness, attract investment and strengthen Ethiopia’s integration into regional and global markets. The issue also carries wider regional significance. Ethiopia’s economic growth, population size and position at the heart of the Horn of Africa mean that maritime connectivity has implications for trade, infrastructure development and cross-border economic cooperation. Ethiopia’s pursuit of maritime access therefore intersects with a broader national agenda: strengthening economic resilience, diversifying trade routes and building regional partnerships that can generate shared prosperity. Ethiopia’s Maritime Ambition Linked to Red Sea Stability Ethiopia’s pursuit of reliable maritime access featured prominently in the week’s strategic agenda, reflecting the country’s economic interests and the Red Sea’s critical role in global trade and security. With its strategic position, economic potential and longstanding peacekeeping record, Ethiopia could contribute to regional maritime security and protect vital trade routes through constructive cooperation with coastal states, respect for international law and mutually beneficial arrangements. Reliable maritime access, stronger regional cooperation and a stable Red Sea are interconnected priorities that could unlock trade, investment and shared prosperity across the Horn of Africa. Tana Forum Positions Ethiopia at the Center of Africa’s Peace and Security Dialogue Ethiopia is preparing to host the 12th Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa in Bahir Dar from October 23 to 25, bringing African leaders, policymakers, researchers and security experts together to examine the continent’s evolving peace and security challenges. The forum’s theme, “Pathways to Peace in Africa: Economic Sovereignty and Geopolitical Transformation,” reflects growing recognition that sustainable peace is closely linked to economic independence, institutional strength and Africa’s capacity to navigate intensifying global geopolitical competition. Across the continent, conflicts, political instability, external rivalries and economic vulnerabilities continue to complicate efforts to achieve lasting peace and development. The Tana Forum offers an opportunity to examine how African countries can strengthen locally driven responses, deepen regional cooperation and align peace and security strategies with the continent’s development priorities. Its emphasis on economic sovereignty also highlights the importance of mobilizing domestic resources, building resilient economies and ensuring that African countries have greater capacity to shape decisions affecting their futures. For Ethiopia, hosting the forum reinforces Addis Ababa’s and the country’s wider role in continental diplomacy and provides an additional platform for advancing dialogue on African-led solutions to shared challenges. Looking Ahead: Connecting National Stability with Regional Opportunity This week’s developments illustrate the interconnected nature of Ethiopia’s domestic priorities and international ambitions. The caretaker administration in Tigray region places peace, institutional recovery and the restoration of public services at the center of the country’s internal challenges. Economic diplomacy in Bangkok reflects an effort to turn reform and debt-restructuring progress into fresh investment and development financing. High-level telephone conversations and military briefings demonstrate continued engagement with international partners on diplomatic and security issues. At the same time, National Flag Day, investments in meteorological capacity and preparations for the Tana Forum highlight the importance of national cohesion, technological modernization and African-led approaches to peace and development. Ethiopia’s pursuit of sovereign sea access adds a longer-term strategic dimension to this agenda, linking economic competitiveness with regional connectivity and the stability of the Red Sea. All in all, these priorities point to a broader national objective: consolidating stability at home, mobilizing resources for inclusive development and building international partnerships that advance Ethiopia’s interests while contributing to regional cooperation.

By Ambaye Woretaw   October 18, 2026 (ENA) Ethiopia has a long history of contributing to regional, continental and international peacekeeping missions, guided by its commitment to collective security, Pan-Africanism and regional stability. Its pursuit of reliable maritime access presents an opportunity to expand this role by contributing to maritime security, protecting international trade and promoting lasting peace across the Red Sea region. Situated at the heart of the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia possesses substantial human resources, economic potential and security capabilities that could contribute to safeguarding one of the world’s most important commercial corridors. Through constructive regional engagement, institutional partnerships and appropriate maritime security cooperation, the country could help address shared security challenges while advancing collective security, economic integration and regional prosperity. Ethiopia’s potential contribution extends beyond protecting its economic interests. Its engagement in regional maritime initiatives could support efforts to combat illicit trafficking, deter maritime threats, protect commercial shipping and improve coordination among regional actors. Moreover, Ethiopia’s maritime engagement could strengthen regional capacity to respond to emerging threats and contribute to a more coordinated security architecture.   Regional Integration Chief of Staff and Senior Researcher on the Horn of Africa at the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA), Gizachew Asrat, underscored the strategic importance of Ethiopia’s pursuit of reliable and sovereign access to the sea in a recent exclusive interview with ENA, linking the issue to regional peace, integration and collective security. “Ethiopia's return to reliable sea access is vital for peace, regional integration and collective security of the Horn of Africa and beyond,” he asserted. As one of Africa’s most populous countries and a major economic actor in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia has a significant stake in the security and efficiency of regional maritime trade routes. Reliable access to these routes could improve commercial competitiveness, strengthen regional connectivity and support the resilience of interconnected economies. Gizachew also emphasized that Ethiopia’s participation in regional maritime initiatives should be viewed as an opportunity for the wider region. “Engaging Ethiopia on the Red Sea platform is an asset for the region,” he said, highlighting the importance of cooperation and partnership in addressing shared challenges. His assessment points to the potential benefits of a regional approach in which Ethiopia’s economic weight and institutional capabilities complement the efforts of neighboring countries to secure maritime routes and promote regional integration.   Security Cooperation Ethiopia’s potential contribution to maritime security rests not only on its strategic position but also on its human resources, security capabilities and economic potential. These capacities could support regional initiatives aimed at protecting commercial shipping, improving information sharing and strengthening responses to cross-border threats. As Gizachew explained, Ethiopia’s “human resources, strong security-wise operation capacity, and a better economic potential as well as growth will add additional asset for the regional cooperation frameworks on maritime connectivity and security issues to be managed in partnership.” Ethiopia determines to translate these capabilities into practical contributions through sustained dialogue, institutional cooperation and arrangements. By aligning its national priorities with shared regional objectives, Ethiopia could help strengthen maritime security cooperation and build confidence among neighboring states. Such engagement could also encourage closer coordination between maritime security institutions and regional economic initiatives. Cooperation on information exchange, the prevention of illicit activities and the protection of commercial shipping could help address common threats more effectively than isolated national efforts. Maritime Connectivity The strategic significance of Ethiopia’s renewed maritime engagement extends beyond shipping routes and port infrastructure. It also concerns the broader challenge of overcoming persistent insecurity, improving regional connectivity and establishing a more cooperative order in the Horn of Africa.   For decades, infrastructure gaps, recurring conflicts and fragmented transport networks have constrained the region’s economic potential. Improved maritime connectivity, supported by reliable access arrangements and coordinated regional planning, could help reduce these barriers, facilitate trade and strengthen economic interdependence. For Ethiopia, dependable access to maritime trade routes is closely linked to economic resilience, export competitiveness and integration into global markets. For neighboring countries, stronger transport and trade connections could create opportunities for investment, logistics development and expanded commercial exchanges. Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden corridors therefore has both national and regional implications. If pursued through peaceful negotiations, mutually beneficial agreements and respect for international law, it could complement wider efforts to establish a more secure, interconnected and prosperous Horn of Africa. Global Trade The security of the Red Sea is a matter of international importance because the corridor connects major commercial routes linking Europe, Asia and Africa. Disruptions can delay shipments, increase transportation costs, affect energy markets and place additional pressure on economies that depend on predictable trade flows. Instability along these routes can also expose commercial vessels and seafarers to security threats, underscoring the need for effective coordination among regional and international stakeholders. Ethiopia’s constructive participation could broaden the economic and institutional base of regional security cooperation. Its human resources, economic potential and strategic position could complement existing initiatives, provided that its engagement is developed through appropriate regional mechanisms and mutually agreed arrangements. Gizachew Asrat’s assessment captures the central opportunity: Ethiopia’s participation in the Red Sea security framework could benefit the wider region when grounded in partnership, mutual benefit and a shared commitment to stability. A more inclusive approach to maritime security could help regional countries coordinate their responses to common threats while strengthening the relationship between security, trade and economic development. Given the corridor’s international significance, the benefits of such cooperation could extend well beyond the Horn of Africa.   Strategic Opportunity Ethiopia’s pursuit of reliable maritime access is driven by economic development, national resilience and the need for stronger integration into regional and global trade networks. At the same time, it presents an opportunity to deepen the country’s contribution to peace and security in the Horn of Africa and the wider Red Sea region. With its substantial human resources, economic potential and strategic position, Ethiopia could play a constructive role in protecting maritime commerce, strengthening regional cooperation and addressing shared security threats. Realizing this potential, Ethiopia has been executing sustained diplomacy, practical institutional partnerships and arrangements that serve the legitimate interests of all parties. Ultimately, Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations and the security of the Red Sea need not be competing priorities. Through peaceful engagement and mutual benefit, the pursuit of reliable sea access could become part of a broader regional effort to promote stability, expand economic opportunities and build a more integrated and prosperous Horn of Africa.

By Bruno Jomba   October 17, 2026 (ENA) For more than a century, Cairo’s policy toward the Horn of Africa and the strategic waters of Bab-el-Mandeb has been defined by a single, zero-sum security doctrine: total control over the Nile Basin and absolute dominance over the maritime choke-points of the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb. Cairo’s national security framework explicitly securitizes both the Nile River and the Suez–Bab-el-Mandeb maritime corridor, treating any autonomous development along these lifelines as a direct challenge to its hegemony. Under this strategic view, a strong, unified, and economically thriving Ethiopia—the natural geographic anchor of East Africa, is perceived not as a partner for shared growth, but as an existential threat. To prevent Ethiopia from realizing its true potential and securing its natural position along the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb corridor, Egypt has consistently sought to project instability onto Ethiopian soil. Whether supporting armed secessionist movements, exploiting internal fractures, or backing anti-state elements across different eras, Cairo's strategy in the Horn of Africa has remained unchanged: keep Ethiopia turned inward, consumed by domestic crises, and stripped of its sovereign maritime reach. The Asmara Axis: A Proxy Regime Designed to Encircle The enduring nature of the Shabia regime in Eritrea must be understood within a wider geopolitical framework. During the colonial era, Eritrean patriots fought valiantly against fascist Italian occupation, rallying behind the rallying cry "Ethiopia or Death"—a testament to their desire for unity and independence. So what happens after Eritrean secession from Ethiopia? Well, the rise of Shabia in Cairo was not merely a domestic development but a calculated geopolitical move aimed at weakening Ethiopia. In the mid-twentieth century, as Ethiopia asserted its sovereignty and regional influence—particularly over the vital Nile headwaters—Egypt sought to extend control over the Red Sea corridor and counter Ethiopia’s growing regional role. By providing safe haven, financial support, and diplomatic infrastructure to exiled political groups and students in Cairo, Egypt effectively fostered a political base that transformed internal grievances into external armed rebellion. State-backed media outlets, such as Cairo-based radio broadcasts, amplified secessionist narratives deep into northern Ethiopia, fueling divisions and eroding national unity. This strategy created a protracted conflict—lasting decades—that drained Ethiopia’s human and material resources, deliberately fragmenting its national fabric and distracting the country from long-term development and regional leadership. Even after secession from Ethiopia, Shabia instead of channeling its resources into infrastructure, economic development, or the welfare of its citizens, the regime in Asmara turned the state into a tool for regional destabilization. The Cairo-backed axis engineered a geopolitical strategy aimed at permanently severing Ethiopia from its historic coastlines at Assab and Massawa. Since its inception, the Eritrean regime has served as a strategic hub for foreign interests intent on keeping Ethiopia landlocked, vulnerable, and economically constrained. Its record across the Horn of Africa speaks volumes: provoking armed clashes with Yemen, engaging in border disputes with Djibouti, waging devastating wars against Ethiopia, and repeatedly intervening in the internal affairs of Sudan and Somalia. External Aggression in Sudan and Regional Impunity The real-world consequences of this aggressive intervention are starkly evident across the region today. In Sudan, as the nation suffers through a devastating internal conflict, foreign meddling has reached alarming levels. Recent Egyptian military strikes targeting civilian artisanal gold miners in Sudan—conducted without mercy for human life—demonstrate a severe disregard for international norms and regional sovereignty. The Sudanese authorities, entangled in an existential conflict, feel compelled to exercise restraint rather than forcefully confront these violations underscores how deeply Egypt exploits regional vulnerabilities to project power without accountability. From the Nile Valley to the Red Sea coast, external interference continues to delay peace and tear apart the social fabric of the Horn. The Heavy Economic Toll of Forced Landlockedness The most severe consequence of this geopolitical containment has been the artificial stripping of Ethiopia’s sea access, turning a proud nation of over 135 million people into the most populous landlocked country on Earth. The loss of Ethiopia’s Red Sea access after 1991 remains an unpardonable betrayal of Ethiopia’s sovereignty. An un-elected transitional administration, lacking any mandate or constitutional authority, unilaterally acquiesced to the separation of Eritrea and the surrender of vital ports like Assab without consulting the Ethiopian people. By endorsing that referendum while denying the nation a voice, this rushed and illegal process stripped a historic power of its coastline without due legal process, leaving over 135 million Ethiopians landlocked and dependent on foreign ports. Every year, Ethiopia is forced to siphon billions of USD out of its national treasury into foreign port and transit fees. This massive financial drain strips the nation of capital that should be building modern hospitals, expanding universities, constructing industrial parks, and modernizing agriculture. High logistics costs burden domestic producers, make Ethiopian exports less competitive on the global market, and leave the economy vulnerable to external supply chain shocks. Had Ethiopia not been systematically cut off from its maritime outlets, those billions of USD would have been reinvested directly into domestic development, elevating Ethiopia into a vastly larger economic superpower and uplifting the entire Horn region. Ethiopia's Two-Water Doctrine To secure its future and guarantee regional stability across the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and the Bab-el-Mandeb corridor, Ethiopia stands firmly on its fundamental Two-Water Doctrine: First, Ethiopia asserts its absolute right to equitably utilize the waters of the Blue Nile. Projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) represent a triumph of self-reliance, designed to generate clean hydro-energy, power regional industrialization, and lift millions out of poverty without harming downstream nations. Second, Ethiopia maintains its imperative for direct, reliable, and sovereign access to the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb. Sovereign sea access is not a luxury; it is a core requirement for national defense, economic growth, and regional integration. No sovereign nation of over 135 million people can be expected to accept permanent maritime imprisonment or surrender its natural geographic rights. A Peaceful Horn Anchored by Ethiopia Despite decades of foreign intervention, proxy aggression, and deliberate encirclement, Ethiopia remains the resilient anchor state of East Africa. The future of the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and the strategic Bab-el-Mandeb must not be dictated by foreign subversion or zero-sum military doctrines. The peoples of Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, and Djibouti share intertwined histories, cultures, and destinies. When Ethiopia thrives, the entire region gains through shared clean energy grids, cross-border trade corridors, and collective security. The Horn of Africa deserves lasting peace, uncompromised sovereignty, and sustainable development—and an empowered, secure Ethiopia with guaranteed access to the sea is the key to unlocking that prosperous future.

By Professor Al Mariam (Emeritus & Attorney at Law) October 16, 2026 (ENA) (𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐬𝐚𝐮𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐚𝐮𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫.) On October 14, 2026, President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi responded to warnings made by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich that Egypt would lose its Sinai Peninsula should it attack Israel. El-Sisi asserted that his country had struggled for its land, that it had no plans to annex any territory and that it wanted only security and stability. 𝐄𝐥-𝐒𝐢𝐬𝐢’𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐬, 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲. Ethiopia has never made threats of any kind to occupy or attack Egyptian territory. The building and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in the Blue Nile is a development project in Ethiopia completed in September 2025 with the blood sweat and tears of Ethiopians. The controversy over the GERD is simply about filling and operating the dam, water security downstream, and lack of a shared agreement for cooperation—not Ethiopia’s claim over any Egyptian territory. Ethiopia has never denied Egypt's right to the waters of the Nile River under international law. Ethiopia also has an unquestioned sovereign right to develop its water resources and produce hydroelectric power for its economy consistent with the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention, which mandates riparian countries to make equitable and reasonable use of shared water resources and cause no significant harm in doing so. In much the same way as El Sisi communicated to Israel, he should send a similar message of peaceful coexistence to Ethiopia: “Egypt does not want war with Ethiopia. Egypt has no territorial designs on Ethiopia. Egypt respects the sovereignty of Ethiopia, and it expects the same from Ethiopia. Egypt does not and will not support any terror groups or countries that sponsor terror groups to commit terrorism in Ethiopia, covertly provide them with arms and other military equipment under cover of night or otherwise. Differences between the two countries must be settled through negotiations, international law, technological cooperation, and security assurances to each other.” Indeed, this is the standard by which Egypt must deal with Israel, Ethiopia, and all other countries in the Horn of Africa. Three principles in President El-Sisi’s statement should be highlighted. First, he believes that Sinai belongs to Egypt and that its territorial integrity should be preserved. Second, he affirms Egypt wants to defend its territory, not to annex someone else's land. Third, Egypt's national security does not need to compromise the sovereignty of some other state. These three principles apply equally to Ethiopia. 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚'𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 𝐝𝐚𝐦 𝐨𝐧 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐦 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥 𝐧𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐫𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐛𝐫𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐝, 𝐦𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚, 𝐒𝐮𝐝𝐚𝐧, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭. Ethiopia does not deny Nile waters are essential to Egyptian agriculture, drinking-water supply, industry, and national economy. The fact remains Egypt is heavily dependent on the Nile River, while Ethiopia is the principal source of the Blue Nile's headwaters; 86 percent of Nile waters originate in Ethiopia. Egypt's security concerns do not confer a veto over Ethiopia's development. These geographical facts establish a shared need for economic cooperation, not an exclusive right for Egypt to determine how Ethiopia develops its water resources. GERD is Ethiopia’s source of energy to produce electricity and propel its economic development. The major concern that the GERD can impact the scheduling of the water discharge from its reservoir during drought periods can be addressed in a transparent process of information exchange, coordinated operation of the dam, rigorous dam safety regime, and joint drought management system. In January 2020, in a joint statement by Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, the United States, and the World Bank, certain areas of agreement were defined, including the staged filling of the reservoir, drought management, the long-term operation of the dam, coordination, information exchange, and dispute resolution. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐦 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐛𝐬𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐛𝐥𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐜𝐤 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐫𝐚 𝐚𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬. 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐥𝐲 𝐚 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐲 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐥𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐦𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐚 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚. 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚 𝐨𝐟 “𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐦” 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐧𝐞𝐠𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧-𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐦 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐥𝐚𝐰 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐬. Ethiopia continues to stand firm in its commitment to assert its right to development and ensure that its rightful use of shared water resources is recognized. The Declaration of Principles 2015 between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan and principles of international watercourse law provide a solution framework. The principles set forth by the Declaration and the Watercourses are that the waters of the Nile may be used in a just and reasonable manner through cooperation and due diligence not to cause any damage to other states. The important point is that the right to water security of the downstream state is not equivalent to an unlimited right to control upstream water resources. Neither can upstream sovereignty mean that the downstream consequences can just be disregarded. The way out of this deadlock is negotiation of rules that are practical, evidence-based, and reciprocal. Egyptian threats and rumors of war against Ethiopia over the Nile 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐩𝐭 𝐚 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥 𝐝𝐨𝐜𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐫 𝐠𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐡𝐞𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜, 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐩𝐮𝐭𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐚 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭, 𝐚 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐲 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭’𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐫𝐡𝐞𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐥𝐲. In 1979, President Anwar Sadat warned that Egypt would not passively accept a threat to its water supply. He dramatically declared, "If Ethiopia takes any action to block our right to the Nile water, there will be no alternative but for us to use force." In 2013, President Mohamed Morsi at a televised meeting proclaimed Egypt would support militant forces in Ethiopia and even attack the dam. Over the past seven years, President El-Sisi has warned that tampering with Egypt's Nile water security is its red line, and that the consequences would affect all of the region. Not to appear overly aggressive, El-Sisi has also been speaking with forked tongue that he would prefer diplomacy than not military force, and that Egypt acknowledges the right of Ethiopia to produce power, provided Egypt's water security remains intact. Using Egyptian military power against Ethiopia is not an option. The defeats that Egypt suffered when its forces invaded Ethiopia in the nineteenth century should serve as a lesson not to use military force. In the past, the Egyptian military has launched campaigns to increase Egyptian influence in the Horn of Africa, which includes the Red Sea and the Ethiopian Highlands. History teaches that using military action against Ethiopia will not make Egypt the dominant country or guarantee its exclusive use of Nile waters or solve disputes between the two countries for a lasting peace. The Khedive of Egypt, Ismail Pasha, undertook an invasion of the Ethiopian Empire through military means in the years 1874 and 1876 with the aim of taking control of the whole Nile River Basin to build an empire in Africa. In the Battle of Gundet (1875), Ethiopian forces crushed Egyptian forces. A well-known scholar observed, “Egyptian armies, often with European and American officers, were defeated and practically annihilated by Ethiopian forces led by the Emperor Yohannes on several occasions.” In the Battle of Gura (1876), Ethiopian forces routed invading Egyptian forces. One scholar noted, “Gura, fought six months later [Gundet], confirms the superior capabilities of the Ethiopian military.” Another noted, “Yohannes met the Egyptians in Hamasien and defeated them decisively at Gura in a three days’ battle, 7–9 March 1876.” In the Battle of Adwa against colonial Italy which took place on March 1, 1896, Ethiopian wiped out a highly armed modern European army within just a few hours. A highly regarded contemporary historian wrote, "Unlike Napoleon’s Russian campaign, the Adwa campaign ended in victory. This is greatness." 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲. 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐨𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐥𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐡 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐲 𝐝𝐢𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐞𝐝, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐰𝐚𝐫 𝐰𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐦𝐞. It is not a stretch of the imagination to compare Israel’s wars with Egypt’s nineteenth-century campaigns against Ethiopia. During the June 1967 Six-Day War, Egypt was defeated by Israel and its Arab allies. The collapse of the Egyptian army took place in Sinai, and Israel captured the Sinai Peninsula. During the October War of 1973, Egypt won early victories in crossing the Suez Canal and penetrating the defenses of Israel in Sinai. Israel retaliated, crossed the Suez Canal and surrounded Egypt’s Third Army. Sinai was finally reclaimed diplomatically by Egypt, after the signing of the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, when Israel withdrew from Sinai in 1982. The strategic significance and political implications of this war is that it allowed Egypt to reclaim Sinai through diplomacy and the 1979 peace agreement. 𝐈𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐩𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐢𝐥𝐞, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐰𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐒𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐢 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐝𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬. 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐚𝐫 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥. Military action against Ethiopia will neither lead to Egyptian domination over the Nile, ensure the safety of Egypt’s water supply nor force Ethiopia to become a colonial/client state. 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐚𝐫 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚, 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐄𝐥-𝐒𝐢𝐬𝐢 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐠𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐫 𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐍𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫. 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐞𝐝, 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐡𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧-𝐰𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐢𝐥𝐞. The Nile River does not have to be an obstacle between Ethiopia and Egypt; rather, it should become the link between the two nations. Being united by many factors in common such as the history of the river and economics, the two nations should join hands to turn the Nile water into an engine of peace and prosperity. Ethiopia will never be threatened or intimidated militarily by Egypt in its lawful use of the Nile. Certainly, Ethiopia has no intention or desire to threaten or destabilize Egypt or use military means to dictate the way Egypt develops itself. The events involving Gundet and Gura show that Ethiopia will not be intimidated to give up its sovereignty. The events surrounding the Arab-Israeli war show that victory and defeat on the battlefield will not necessarily resolve the political problems involved. The return of Sinai shows the benefit of diplomacy and agreements. A true victory is one that preserves peace and the sovereignty of a nation. The history of Ethiopians indicates that they have always been strong and united in the defense of their homeland. Whether it was the Battle of Gundet and Gura or the Battle of Adwa, the Ethiopian people showed their capability of organizing their troops and using difficult terrains in order to repel their enemies. The defense of Ethiopia against the invasion of Somalia in 1977-1978 gives one more example of the ability of Ethiopian to resist and repel invaders. One lesson that can be learned from these battles is that when the sovereignty of Ethiopia has ever been challenged, then its people have always shown great determination, resilience and ability to defend their land. This glorious tradition is part of every Ethiopian, but the most important lesson that this tradition teaches us is that the greatest victory is that which is won without any battle. But if the battle becomes inevitable, then every Ethiopian is willing to fight for his motherland, making the Ethiopian National Defense Force invincible. What to do? Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan should commit to non-aggression — pledging not to threaten or use force against one another in violation of the UN Charter, not to support terrorism against each other and to refrain from doing anything that destabilizes the region. The three countries should establish practical arrangements for sharing information, ensuring dam safety, mitigating drought risks, and coordinating reservoir operations. It is important to ensure Ethiopia’s rights to manage its water resources fairly and reasonably, while taking into account the concerns of the downstream nations. Technical differences can be sorted out by negotiations and consultations. Moreover, regular military communications and dialogue under the guidance of the African Union should be held and issues addressed in good faith and good will. 𝐈𝐟 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭'𝐬 𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐚𝐫, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐜𝐢𝐫𝐜𝐮𝐦𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬. 𝐈𝐟 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥 𝐧𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐢𝐭𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐦𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐫 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠; 𝐢𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐛𝐨𝐫. 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐬𝐞𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐱 — 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐲— 𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐚𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐍𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬. 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐄𝐥-𝐒𝐢𝐬𝐢 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐝𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨: 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲. 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐞𝐞𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐜𝐨𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐨𝐧; 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐚𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐬; 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 – 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐡𝐞𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐝. 𝐋𝐞𝐭’𝐬 𝐣𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐮𝐬 𝐍𝐈𝐋𝐄 𝐆𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐓!

By Staff Writer   October 15, 2026 (ENA) Ethiopia’s new five-year political chapter opens with a defining national ambition: building a peaceful, democratic and prosperous state while pursuing sovereign access to the sea. Under the Medemer Government, the government is highly anticipated to translating its electoral mandate into tangible improvements in citizens’ lives while strengthening Ethiopia’s strategic position in the Horn of Africa. At the heart of this agenda lies Ethiopia’s sovereign sea access aspiration. As one of the world’s most populous landlocked countries, Ethiopia has a compelling economic interest in reliable access to maritime trade. Securing such access through mutually beneficial arrangements could ease logistical constraints, improve export competitiveness, attract investment and deepen regional economic integration. Yet, maritime access is part of a broader national transformation. The success of Ethiopia’s new political chapter will depend equally on consolidating peace, strengthening democratic institutions, advancing national reconciliation and building an inclusive economy. The Medemer philosophy, which emphasizes cooperation, synergy and collective progress, offers a framework for pursuing these priorities. Its credibility will ultimately rest on the government’s ability to translate political commitments into measurable results. Ethiopia’s domestic progress also carries regional significance. As host of the African Union headquarters and a major political and economic actor in the Horn of Africa, the country has both a strategic interest in regional stability and an opportunity to contribute to it. A stronger Ethiopia, supported by trusted institutions and a resilient economy, would be better positioned to advance its national interests while promoting peace and cooperation across the region. Sovereign Sea Access: A Strategic National Priority For Ethiopia, access to the sea is more than a question of geography. It is closely connected to security, trade, economic competitiveness, national development and long-term strategic interests. Dependence on external maritime corridors exposes the country’s economy to transport costs, logistical bottlenecks and disruptions in international trade. Reliable and diversified access to maritime infrastructure could help Ethiopian businesses reach international markets more efficiently, strengthen supply chains and improve the competitiveness of exports. Ethiopia must be an integral part of the Red Sea security architecture. As a major regional actor with longstanding contributions to peacekeeping under the United Nations and peace and security efforts across the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia has a compelling strategic interest in the security of this vital maritime corridor and a meaningful contribution to make. Excluding a country of Ethiopia’s regional significance from decisions affecting Red Sea security would leave a critical stakeholder outside a process with direct implications for its economic and national interests. Ethiopia should therefore have a meaningful seat at the table, enabling it to contribute to maritime security, protect international shipping, strengthen regional stability and help safeguard one of the world’s most strategically important waterways. Ultimately, the measure of progress will be whether Ethiopia can expand its maritime options, reduce trade constraints and strengthen its economic resilience while contributing to stability across the Horn of Africa. National Unity as Foundation of Strategic Ambition No national ambition can be sustained without internal stability and a shared sense of purpose. Ethiopia’s new political chapter must therefore begin with the responsibility to strengthen national unity, address longstanding grievances and rebuild public confidence. The country’s cultural diversity, complex history and competing political interests make inclusive state building essential. Unity cannot be achieved through declarations alone. It requires equal citizenship, constitutional protection, fair access to opportunities and institutions capable of managing disagreements peacefully. The Medemer approach can help create common ground among political parties, government institutions, civil society organizations, religious institutions, traditional leaders and communities. The national dialogue process offers an opportunity to address historical grievances, identify shared interests and build a stronger foundation for consensus. For this process to succeed, participation must be meaningful, diverse perspectives must be heard, and recommendations must inform practical reforms. National reconciliation should not be reduced to a political slogan; it must produce greater trust, improved relations among communities and more effective mechanisms for resolving disputes. Democratic Institutions: Turning the Mandate into Public Trust The durability of Ethiopia’s political transition will depend heavily on the performance of its democratic institutions. Parliament, the judiciary, electoral bodies and executive institutions must operate within their constitutional mandates and provide effective mechanisms for accountability. The House of Peoples’ Representatives has a responsibility not only to enact legislation but also to scrutinize government performance, examine public expenditure and ensure that national policies respond to citizens’ needs. Effective parliamentary oversight can help identify implementation gaps, improve public spending and strengthen accountability. An independent and accessible judiciary is equally important. Citizens must be able to seek remedies when their rights are violated, while disputes should be resolved through impartial legal procedures. Consistent application of the law would reinforce equal protection and improve confidence in public institutions. Political parties also have a responsibility to strengthen democratic practices by presenting credible policy alternatives, engaging in constructive debate and respecting constitutional procedures. The government, in turn, must protect lawful political participation, civic engagement and public criticism. Combating corruption, reducing administrative inefficiency and improving public services are equally important. Transparent procurement, responsible financial management and accessible complaint mechanisms would help ensure that public resources serve their intended purposes. These reforms are directly connected to Ethiopia’s broader strategic ambitions. Predictable institutions and accountable governance can strengthen investor confidence, improve the business environment and support the effective implementation of infrastructure and development projects. A government that earns public trust at home is also better positioned to build credible partnerships abroad. Democratic accountability is therefore not separate from national strategy; it is one of the foundations on which sustainable national progress depends. Economic Transformation and Building the Capacity for Sovereignty Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access must be supported by an economy capable of turning improved connectivity into prosperity. Access to ports and international markets can create opportunities, but the benefits will depend on domestic productivity, competitive industries and the capacity to generate value. In this regard, Ethiopia’s “Made in Ethiopia” industrial movement is playing an important role in strengthening domestic production, advancing import substitution and expanding the country’s manufacturing capacity. By encouraging local industries to produce goods previously sourced from abroad, the initiative supports economic self-reliance, reduces import dependence and creates opportunities for domestic investment and job creation. Agriculture remains central to Ethiopia’s food security and economy. Under the Medemer philosophy, the country has made notable progress, particularly in wheat production. Expanding irrigation, mechanization, research and agro-processing can further boost productivity, reduce climate vulnerability and increase farmers’ incomes. Industrialization, manufacturing and digital transformation are equally vital to diversifying exports, creating jobs and strengthening domestic production. Reliable power, efficient logistics, access to finance and a skilled workforce will be essential to building competitive businesses. Improved maritime connectivity could lower trade barriers and connect Ethiopian producers to global markets, while stronger domestic industries would help the country capture greater value from international trade. Horn of Africa and Red Sea Region Cooperation for Shared Prosperity Ethiopia’s national future is closely connected to developments across the Horn of Africa. Conflict, displacement, food insecurity and climate pressures frequently cross borders, while political tensions can disrupt trade and threaten the livelihoods of border communities. The pursuit of sea access must therefore be approached within a wider framework of regional cooperation. Ethiopia’s strategic and economic interests must be connected to the Red Sea coast in the near future for mutual benefits. Port operations, transport corridors, logistics services and cross-border infrastructure can create commercial opportunities for participating countries. Improved connectivity can strengthen regional supply chains, expand markets and encourage investment in transport, manufacturing and trade-related services. A more stable and connected Horn of Africa would benefit Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations while supporting the development priorities of its neighbors. Ethiopia’s regional influence will therefore depend not only on the scale of its ambitions but also on its ability to build trust, sustain dialogue and demonstrate that cooperation can deliver tangible benefits. Climate Resilience and Water Security on Nile River Equally important to Ethiopia’s ambition for sovereign sea access, the new Medemer Government must maximize the development potential of the Abay (Blue Nile) River by advancing additional hydropower and irrigation projects. Harnessing this strategic resource is vital to expanding electricity generation, strengthening food security and accelerating economic transformation. Climate resilience remains central to this ambition. Droughts, floods and shifting rainfall patterns threaten agriculture, water supplies, infrastructure and livelihoods across the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s investment in hydropower and irrigation must therefore go hand in hand with sustainable water management, environmental protection and climate adaptation. For Ethiopia, maximizing the Abay River’s potential is not merely an energy or irrigation priority; it is a strategic pillar of economic sovereignty, food security and long-term national development. Youth and Women: Expanding the Foundations of National Progress Ethiopia’s young population represents a major opportunity for economic growth, innovation and national renewal. Realizing this potential requires more than expanding education; it demands relevant skills, productive employment, entrepreneurship and meaningful participation in public life. Limited employment opportunities can deepen frustration, particularly when young people feel excluded from decisions affecting their future. Investment in technical and vocational education, digital skills and employment-intensive sectors would help connect education with the needs of the economy. Stronger links between schools, universities, training institutions and employers could improve the transition from education to employment. Support for entrepreneurship and small businesses could also enable young people to turn their skills and ideas into productive economic activity. Youth participation is equally important in national reconciliation, community development and public debate. Providing meaningful opportunities for young people to contribute to public affairs would strengthen social cohesion and ensure that national policies respond to their priorities. Women’s participation is another essential component of inclusive development. Expanding access to education, employment, finance, public services and leadership would allow more citizens to contribute to national progress and strengthen household welfare. These investments have strategic significance. A skilled, productive and economically empowered population would strengthen domestic industries, improve export competitiveness and help Ethiopia benefit from expanded regional and international trade. National ambition becomes more sustainable when citizens have a genuine stake in its realization. Empowering young people and women is therefore not simply a social objective; it is an investment in Ethiopia’s productive capacity, stability and long-term prosperity. From National Ambition to Measurable Results The credibility of Ethiopia’s new political chapter will ultimately depend on implementation. The government must translate its priorities into clear targets, allocate resources according to national needs and establish mechanisms for assessing progress. Security, employment, public service delivery, institutional accountability and economic resilience should be central measures of performance. Public reporting would enable citizens to evaluate government commitments and identify areas requiring corrective action. Federal and regional authorities must coordinate their responsibilities while respecting constitutional mandates and local circumstances. Consultation with communities, businesses, professional associations and civil society can improve decision-making and help identify emerging problems. Efficient public financial management, stronger procurement systems and effective anti-corruption measures would help ensure that limited resources deliver meaningful results. The government must also balance long-term infrastructure investments with immediate public needs. Citizens expect improved access to health care, education, affordable food, employment and personal security. Progress in these areas will shape public confidence in the administration. Strategic ambitions and domestic responsibilities should reinforce each other. Maritime access can expand economic opportunities and its full value should depend on productive industries, capable institutions, skilled workers and a stable political environment. The ultimate test is whether national policies improve the lives of citizens while strengthening Ethiopia’s ability to pursue its interests through peaceful and constructive engagement. All in all, Ethiopia’s new five-year political chapter presents an opportunity to strengthen the foundations of a peaceful, democratic and prosperous state. Its success will depend on the government’s ability to translate its electoral mandate and the Medemer philosophy into tangible progress in national unity, security, institutional accountability and living standards. At the heart of the country’s strategic ambition is sovereign access to the sea. Pursued through mutually beneficial arrangements, maritime connectivity could help ease trade constraints, strengthen export competitiveness and deepen regional economic integration as well as ensure lasting peace. Beyond its borders, Ethiopia must strengthen constructive relations with neighboring states, advance cooperation on trade, infrastructure, energy and climate resilience, and support regional efforts to prevent conflict. Its engagement with the African Union and IGAD can help advance these goals when backed by consistent diplomacy and practical commitments. The government’s responsibility is therefore both national and regional: to build a state that citizens trust, an economy that expands opportunities and a foreign policy that advances national interests while respecting the legitimate interests of others. Sovereign access to the sea may be at the heart of Ethiopia’s national ambition, but national unity, democratic governance and economic transformation will determine its success. The defining measure of the Medemer State will be its ability to turn this ambition into lasting improvements in citizens’ lives while contributing to a more peaceful, stable and economically integrated Horn of Africa.

By Bruno Jomba October 14, 2026 (ENA) Ethiopia is moving to capture more of the wealth beneath its soil, as a newly inaugurated precious metals refinery opens the door to a more value-driven future for the country’s mining industry. Inaugurated by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at the Bole Lemi Special Economic Zone in Addis Ababa, the National Precious Metals Refinery marks a significant step in Ethiopia’s ambition to move beyond extracting mineral resources and expand its role in processing, refining and marketing them. For a country whose gold industry is generating growing foreign-exchange earnings, the facility addresses a longstanding gap in the mineral value chain: the limited capacity to refine precious metals domestically to the standards demanded by international markets. The distinction is economically important. Extracting gold generates revenue, but refining it and developing industries around it can create additional opportunities for investment, employment, technological advancement and industrial growth. With the new facility, Ethiopia is seeking to retain a greater share of that value at home while laying the groundwork for a more integrated mining industry. Located in the Bole Lemi Special Economic Zone, the refinery has a planned initial annual processing capacity of more than 600 tonnes of precious metals, with an estimated valuation capacity of about 80 billion US dollars annually. These figures refer to its stated processing and valuation capability, not Ethiopia’s annual gold output or projected export earnings.   The project is a joint venture between Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), which holds a 51 percent stake, and Sam Precious Metals, which owns the remaining 49 percent. Beyond the inauguration, the facility raises a broader question for Ethiopia’s economic transformation: how can the country turn its growing mineral wealth into a stronger domestic industrial base? Keeping More of the Gold Economy at Home The real significance of the refinery lies in what happens to gold after it leaves the mine. Gold extracted from the ground often requires testing, smelting and refining before it can be transformed into bullion that meets the specifications of international buyers and financial institutions. These processes create economic value through technical expertise, quality assurance and specialized industrial services. When such facilities are unavailable domestically, producers must rely on processing services elsewhere, allowing other markets and businesses to capture part of the value generated by the mineral. The new refinery gives Ethiopia an opportunity to perform more of these activities within its own borders, potentially reducing dependence on foreign refining services and retaining a greater share of the economic benefits associated with its gold industry. At the inauguration, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized the importance of moving beyond the extraction and export of raw materials toward domestic processing and industrial production. That ambition reflects a wider development priority: natural resources should serve not only as sources of immediate revenue but also as foundations for building productive industries, developing technical expertise and expanding economic opportunities. For Ethiopia, refining gold locally could help establish stronger links between mining operations, laboratories, industrial services, manufacturing businesses and international markets. The objective, therefore, is not simply to process a valuable metal. It is to develop a broader economic ecosystem around it. Gold’s Growing Contribution to the Economy The refinery comes as gold assumes an increasingly important role in Ethiopia’s efforts to expand mining revenues and generate foreign currency.   According to performance figures presented by Ministry of Mines earlier, Ethiopia produced approximately 44 tonnes of gold during the concluded fiscal year, generating a record 5.65 billion US dollars in foreign-exchange earnings. The figures underscore the growing importance of gold to the national economy and the need to develop the infrastructure required to process, certify and market production efficiently. As output expands, domestic capacity for assaying, refining, secure storage and quality certification becomes increasingly important. International buyers need confidence in the purity, traceability and handling of the gold they purchase. A modern refinery could help connect Ethiopian producers with these requirements, potentially making parts of the process between extraction and sale more efficient. It could also provide a domestic destination for producers seeking professional testing and processing services, helping strengthen the organization of the gold market. However, the scale of the economic benefits will depend on several factors, including the refinery’s operating costs, the amount of gold processed, the quality of its output and the commercial terms offered to producers. Domestic refining capacity alone does not automatically guarantee higher export earnings or greater profitability. Its importance lies in providing infrastructure through which Ethiopia can pursue those gains while developing more expertise and capacity within its own economy. Beyond Gold: Building a Broader Industrial Base The refinery’s potential reaches beyond the immediate business of processing precious metals. A competitive refining industry depends on a network of supporting activities, including laboratory analysis, metallurgy, equipment maintenance, secure logistics, storage and specialized technical services. These requirements can create opportunities for domestic businesses and professionals as the industry develops. Universities and technical institutions could also play a greater role in training chemists, metallurgists, engineers and laboratory specialists, helping build the skills required to sustain modern mineral-processing operations. One particularly promising opportunity lies in the development of Ethiopia’s jewelry and precious-metals manufacturing industries. Access to refined gold of known purity could support businesses seeking to produce jewelry, investment bars and other finished products. Such activities offer opportunities to capture value not only from the metal itself but also from design, craftsmanship, quality assurance, branding and market access. Instead of relying predominantly on the export of a mineral commodity, Ethiopia could gradually expand its participation in the industries that transform that commodity into higher-value products. This transition would require more than a refinery. Downstream businesses would need access to finance, reliable supplies of refined metal, skilled workers, appropriate technology and competitive domestic and international markets.   Nevertheless, the new facility provides an important foundation from which such industries could grow. Can Ethiopia Become a Regional Refining Hub? Ethiopia’s geographical position and air transport connections could also create opportunities to serve precious-metals producers beyond its borders. The refinery’s location in the Bole Lemi Special Economic Zone places it within reach of Addis Ababa Bole International Airport and Ethiopian Airlines’ extensive cargo network. These connections could support the secure movement of precious metals and related products, although competitiveness would also depend on logistics costs, security arrangements and regulatory requirements. Across the continent, substantial mineral resources coexist with a persistent challenge: much of the value generated through advanced processing and manufacturing is captured beyond the countries where those resources originate. Expanding domestic and regional processing capacity could help African economies retain more of that value, develop technical capabilities and strengthen industrial cooperation. For Ethiopia, becoming a major regional refining centre would require more than installing modern equipment. The facility would need to establish credibility with international buyers, meet relevant market standards, attract a dependable supply of precious metals and compete effectively with established refining centres. The potential is significant, but realizing it will depend on operational performance, commercial discipline and sustained investment. Technology, Skills and Knowledge Transfer The refinery also offers Ethiopia an opportunity to develop technical expertise that could benefit the wider mining sector. Precious-metals refining involves sophisticated metallurgical processes, accurate laboratory analysis, strict quality controls and secure management of high-value materials. Operating such a facility requires a workforce with specialized skills and the ability to maintain consistent technical standards. Through the joint venture, Ethiopian engineers, chemists, technicians and other professionals could gain experience in modern refining operations and related technologies. The long-term value of that opportunity will depend on the extent to which local employees develop advanced skills, assume technical and managerial responsibilities, and transfer their knowledge to other parts of the economy. Effective knowledge transfer could help Ethiopia build the domestic expertise needed to operate and expand mineral-processing industries rather than remain dependent on external technical support. These capabilities could also support the development of other mineral resources, where testing, processing technology, industrial management and quality assurance are essential to improving productivity and competitiveness. In this sense, the refinery’s contribution could extend beyond the value of the gold it processes. It could also help build the human capital required for a more technologically capable mining industry. From Mineral Wealth to Lasting Economic Value For Ethiopia, the National Precious Metals Refinery represents an important addition to the infrastructure needed to transform mining into a stronger pillar of economic development. The distinction between extracting resources and developing industries around them is fundamental. Extraction brings minerals to the surface; processing, manufacturing and specialized services create further opportunities to generate income, employment and technical capabilities. The refinery provides Ethiopia with a new platform to pursue those opportunities. Its ultimate contribution, however, will depend on how effectively it is integrated into the domestic mining industry and connected to regional and international markets. Reliable supplies of gold, competitive operating costs, internationally accepted quality standards, transparent commercial arrangements and strong local skills development will all be essential to realizing its potential. There is also a broader economic imperative: the benefits of mineral wealth must extend beyond export receipts to support productive investment, local enterprises and sustainable employment. Ethiopia has taken an important step toward capturing more value from its precious metals. The next challenge is to turn that new capacity into a competitive industry—one that strengthens the mining sector, expands domestic expertise and creates opportunities further along the value chain. The measure of the refinery’s success will ultimately be not simply how much gold passes through its facilities, but how much lasting economic value Ethiopia can build around it.

By Temesgen Assefa   October 14, 2026 (ENA) As Africa grapples with persistent conflicts, geopolitical rivalries and economic vulnerabilities, Ethiopia is preparing to host a high-level continental gathering aimed at advancing African-led solutions to the continent’s peace and security challenges. The 12th Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa, scheduled for October 23–25 in Bahir Dar, comes at a critical juncture when the relationship between political stability, economic sovereignty and global power competition is increasingly shaping Africa’s future. Under the theme “Pathways to Peace in Africa: Economic Sovereignty and Geopolitical Transformation,” the forum will bring together political leaders, policymakers, researchers and security experts to explore ways to strengthen continental cooperation and turn shared priorities into practical action. For Ethiopia, hosting the forum represents more than an opportunity to convene influential African voices. It reinforces the country’s contribution to continental diplomacy and provides a platform to advance dialogue on the structural challenges confronting the Horn of Africa and the wider continent. Established in 2012, the Tana Forum has developed into a platform for examining Africa’s security challenges through African perspectives, bringing together diverse stakeholders to explore the causes of conflict and pathways toward sustainable peace. Its central question remains pressing: how can Africa move beyond managing recurring crises to building the political, economic and institutional foundations for lasting stability? African Solutions to African Challenges Across Africa, conflicts rarely emerge in isolation. Political exclusion, weak institutions, competition over resources, economic inequality and unresolved grievances can combine to create conditions in which instability persists long after the immediate outbreak of violence. The consequences extend far beyond battlefields. Conflict displaces communities, disrupts trade, discourages investment, weakens public institutions and diverts resources from essential services and development. In regions already facing climate-related pressures and economic uncertainty, insecurity can further undermine livelihoods and deepen vulnerabilities. Addressing these challenges requires more than military responses or emergency interventions. Sustainable peace depends on preventive diplomacy, inclusive political processes, accountable institutions and economic opportunities that enable communities to participate meaningfully in national development. This is where African ownership becomes particularly important. African countries and regional institutions possess valuable knowledge of the historical grievances, political dynamics and local realities underlying many conflicts. Strengthening their capacity to anticipate crises, mediate disputes and support peacebuilding can help produce responses better suited to the continent’s circumstances. African-led solutions, however, do not require Africa to act alone. International partnerships remain important in providing expertise, investment and diplomatic support. Their effectiveness depends on whether they reinforce African priorities and institutional capacity rather than displace local leadership. By bringing together political leaders, scholars and security practitioners, the Tana Forum offers an opportunity to bridge policy discussions and practical experience, encouraging approaches that address not only the symptoms of insecurity but also its underlying causes. Ethiopia’s Strategic Role in Continental Diplomacy Ethiopia occupies a strategically significant position in the Horn of Africa, a region where political developments, security concerns and economic interests are deeply interconnected. Its hosting of the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa has also established the country as an important center for continental diplomacy. Against this backdrop, the Tana Forum complements formal diplomatic engagements by providing space for deeper reflection on emerging security trends, regional tensions and the structural conditions shaping peace and stability. Hosting the gathering in Bahir Dar also extends continental dialogue beyond Ethiopia’s political capital, connecting high-level discussions with a city that provides a distinctive setting for exchanges on Africa’s future. For Ethiopia, the forum offers an opportunity to contribute to continental thinking on conflict prevention, regional cooperation and the relationship between security and development. It can also help strengthen engagement among policymakers, researchers and practitioners whose collaboration is essential to addressing complex regional challenges. Yet the significance of hosting an international forum is measured not simply by the prominence of its participants or the breadth of its discussions. Its real value lies in whether the ideas generated influence policies, strengthen partnerships and contribute to tangible progress. Ethiopia’s contribution to continental diplomacy will therefore depend on sustained engagement, constructive dialogue and the ability to connect discussions at platforms such as Tana with broader peacebuilding initiatives. Why Regional Cooperation Matters The Horn of Africa illustrates how closely national security is tied to regional stability. Political tensions, armed conflicts, terrorism, climate-related pressures and economic vulnerabilities can cross borders, creating consequences that no country can effectively manage in isolation. Insecurity in one country can trigger displacement into neighboring states, disrupt commercial routes and undermine regional investment. Disagreements over shared resources and competing strategic interests can also strain relations, making cooperation more difficult precisely when it is most needed. For Ethiopia, regional stability is closely linked to economic development, diplomatic relations and the prospects for deeper integration across the Horn of Africa. Stronger cross-border trade, transport connectivity, infrastructure development and cooperation in managing shared resources can generate economic opportunities while reinforcing mutual interests among neighboring countries. Conversely, prolonged tensions can increase costs, weaken confidence and constrain the region’s development potential. The challenge is to establish mechanisms through which countries can manage disagreements peacefully, prevent local disputes from escalating and identify areas of common interest despite political differences. The Tana Forum provides a platform for examining these possibilities. Through dialogue and the exchange of policy experiences, participants can explore how neighboring states and regional institutions can strengthen preventive diplomacy, improve coordination and develop approaches that address both immediate security threats and their deeper causes. In a region shaped by overlapping national interests and wider geopolitical competition, sustained engagement is not merely a diplomatic preference; it is an essential component of lasting stability. Economic Sovereignty as a Foundation for Peace The 12th Tana Forum’s focus on economic sovereignty highlights an often-overlooked dimension of African security: the ability of countries to build resilient economies and exercise meaningful choices over their development priorities. Across the continent, external debt pressures, limited industrial capacity, dependence on commodity exports and exposure to volatile international markets can constrain governments’ policy options. These vulnerabilities may limit investment in public services, infrastructure and productive sectors, while reducing the resources available to address security challenges. Economic dependence can also narrow a country’s room for maneuver as global powers compete for access to natural resources, markets, infrastructure and strategically important locations. Such competition presents Africa with both opportunities and risks. Foreign investment, technology transfer and international partnerships can support industrialization and economic transformation. However, when external interests overshadow African development priorities, these relationships can intensify rivalries and limit the benefits available to local economies. Economic sovereignty, therefore, should not be understood simply as reducing external dependence. It also involves strengthening domestic productive capacity, mobilizing resources, developing effective institutions, expanding regional markets and negotiating international partnerships that advance long-term development objectives. These priorities have direct implications for peace and security. Where economic opportunities are limited and inequalities persist, social grievances can deepen and political tensions may become more difficult to resolve. By contrast, inclusive economic growth, stronger institutions and improved access to livelihoods can help create conditions more conducive to stability. For Ethiopia and its neighbors, greater cooperation in trade, infrastructure, energy and resource management can strengthen economic resilience and reinforce shared interests in peace. Regional economic integration can also create incentives for dialogue by demonstrating the practical benefits of stability. The forum’s theme consequently points to a broader strategic reality: Africa’s ability to safeguard peace is closely connected to its capacity to shape its economic future and navigate an increasingly competitive international environment. From Dialogue to Measurable Action For all the importance of continental dialogue, Africa’s peace and security agenda continues to face a fundamental challenge: translating policy commitments into results on the ground. High-level gatherings can build trust, generate ideas and establish common priorities. But their impact ultimately depends on implementation, institutional coordination and sustained political commitment. Governments, the African Union, regional organizations, research institutions and other stakeholders all have roles to play in connecting policy discussions with practical responses. Stronger cooperation can improve early warning systems, support mediation efforts, strengthen conflict prevention and encourage evidence-based approaches to peacebuilding. Research institutions can help identify the drivers of instability and assess which interventions are effective. The experiences of communities affected by conflict can also inform policies that respond to local realities rather than relying exclusively on high-level assessments. Equally important is continuity. Recommendations emerging from forums such as Tana need to inform subsequent policy discussions, institutional partnerships and concrete initiatives. Progress should be assessed not only through declarations and commitments but also through improvements in cooperation, conflict prevention and the capacity of institutions to respond to emerging threats. For Ethiopia, helping strengthen these connections would enhance the forum’s contribution to continental diplomacy and support wider African efforts to build sustainable peace. The test of the Bahir Dar gathering will ultimately be whether its discussions help move the continent closer to solutions that can be implemented, sustained and adapted to changing circumstances. Strengthening Africa’s Path to Peace Africa’s peace and security challenges are inseparable from its economic prospects, political institutions and position in a changing global order. Addressing them requires a comprehensive approach that combines preventive diplomacy, inclusive governance, regional cooperation and sustainable development. The 12th Tana High-Level Forum is highly anticipated to provide an opportunity to advance that approach by bringing African perspectives to the center of discussions on the continent’s future. For Ethiopia, hosting the forum reinforces its engagement in continental affairs and creates space to promote cooperation among African partners. For the wider continent, the gathering offers an opportunity to examine how economic sovereignty, strategic partnerships and stronger regional institutions can contribute to a more stable and resilient future. Ultimately, Africa’s pursuit of peace cannot rest on dialogue alone. It requires political will, institutional capacity, economic opportunity and a sustained commitment to resolving disputes through peaceful means. As participants gather in Bahir Dar, the challenge will be to transform a shared commitment to African ownership into practical action—strengthening institutions, deepening regional cooperation and addressing the structural conditions that allow conflicts to persist. The enduring significance of the Tana Forum will lie not simply in the conversations it generates, but in the progress those conversations help make possible: an Africa better equipped to manage its own security challenges, shape its geopolitical future and ensure that peace and development advance together.

By Staff Writer Global affairs during the week of October 4 to 10, 2026, were shaped by security tensions, diplomatic efforts to contain conflicts, economic uncertainty and mounting climate risks. Developments in the Middle East and Eastern Europe underscored the challenges of protecting civilian populations, maintaining international trade and safeguarding economic stability amid geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, warnings of a potentially powerful El Niño event heightened concerns about food security and extreme weather, while preparations for the United Nations climate conference, COP31, gained momentum. Economic policymakers also faced mounting questions over public debt, energy costs, financial stability and the implications of rapid technological advancement. Middle East Tensions Security tensions involving Saudi Arabia and Yemen intensified following missile attacks on Riyadh's airport that reportedly killed four people and damaged an airliner, according to Reuters reporting on October 10. The attacks were attributed to Houthi rebels backed by Iran. Saudi Arabia responded with strikes on Houthi missile positions, while airlines adjusted flight schedules and European governments issued travel warnings. Despite the heightened security concerns, organizers said the World Petroleum Congress would proceed in Riyadh from October 10 to 14. The Future Investment Initiative, scheduled for later in October, was also expected to go ahead, reflecting Saudi Arabia's determination to maintain its position as a major destination for international energy and investment gatherings. The developments highlighted the close relationship between regional security and global economic confidence. Threats to aviation, shipping and critical infrastructure can raise insurance premiums, disrupt commercial operations and discourage investment, with potential consequences for energy markets and international trade. The situation also demonstrated how instability in strategically important regions can generate economic repercussions far beyond the immediate conflict zone. Ukraine War Diplomatic efforts to end the Russia Ukraine war continued as United States officials held discussions with European and Ukrainian representatives. Washington described the talks as productive, with the aim of identifying a path toward a lasting settlement before winter. However, the diplomatic engagement unfolded alongside continued violence. Al Jazeera reported on October 10 that Russian attacks had killed 20 people in Ukraine, underscoring the persistent gap between negotiations and realities on the battlefield. The prospects for a settlement remain significant for European security and the wider international economy. The conflict has implications for energy supplies, agricultural markets and international relations, making its resolution a matter of concern well beyond the two countries. The central challenge is to translate diplomatic contacts into a durable agreement that addresses security concerns, reduces hostilities and establishes conditions for lasting peace. Global Economy The world economy continued to face uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions, energy costs, borrowing conditions and mounting public debt as policymakers prepared for international economic discussions. Reuters reported that the upcoming annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank would take place against a challenging economic backdrop. Global growth, debt sustainability and geopolitical risks were expected to feature prominently in discussions as the IMF prepared an updated World Economic Outlook. These pressures are particularly consequential for developing economies that depend heavily on imported fuel, food and industrial inputs. Higher energy prices can increase transportation and production costs, intensify inflationary pressures, strain foreign exchange reserves and make debt repayment more difficult. Governments therefore face the difficult task of containing inflation while sustaining investment, employment and essential public services. The international meetings also offer an opportunity to examine how multilateral financial institutions can support countries facing high borrowing costs, limited fiscal space and growing development needs. The broader challenge is to strengthen economic resilience in an increasingly uncertain international environment without undermining long term development priorities. El Niño Risks The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño could persist until February 2027 and potentially become one of the strongest events recorded since 1950. According to a WMO bulletin reported by Reuters, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal during October to December. The phenomenon is expected to influence rainfall patterns across the world, increasing the risk of drought in some regions and excessive rainfall in others. The potential consequences extend to agricultural production, water availability and public health, particularly in countries already grappling with drought, flooding and inadequate infrastructure. Poor harvests could intensify food insecurity, while heavy rainfall could damage homes, roads and essential services. Communities dependent on rain fed agriculture are especially vulnerable because changing rainfall patterns can undermine livelihoods and reduce food production. Strengthening early warning systems, improving water management and expanding climate resilient farming practices will be essential to reducing these risks. Governments and humanitarian organizations must also ensure that climate forecasts inform timely interventions, helping communities prepare for potential crop losses, water shortages and displacement before conditions deteriorate. Climate Diplomacy International climate negotiations gained momentum as delegates gathered in Fiji for a preparatory meeting ahead of COP31, scheduled to take place in Antalya, Türkiye, in November. COP31 President and Turkish Climate Minister Murat Kurum warned that limiting global warming was a matter of survival. His remarks followed a visit to Tuvalu, where low lying communities face growing threats from rising sea levels and coastal flooding. Reuters reported on October 8 that a joint declaration by 30 countries at the preparatory meeting called for deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions. Representatives of Pacific island nations also pressed for increased climate resilience financing and stronger ocean protection measures. The discussions highlighted persistent disagreements over climate responsibilities, financial commitments and the pace of global action. Vulnerable countries continue to seek greater financial and technical support, while governments face mounting pressure to accelerate emissions reductions and fulfil existing commitments. For Pacific island nations, climate change threatens not only natural ecosystems but also housing, food production, freshwater supplies and the long term viability of communities. COP31 will provide an important test of whether international commitments can be translated into measurable emissions reductions, dependable financing and practical adaptation measures. The challenge extends beyond negotiating new commitments. Countries must also ensure that existing pledges produce tangible benefits for communities already experiencing the effects of climate change. Children at Risk The anticipated El Niño event has also raised humanitarian concerns over its potential impact on children, particularly those living in areas vulnerable to drought, flooding and food insecurity. Inter Press Service reported on October 9 that UNICEF projections indicated the 2026 to 2027 climate cycle could threaten the health, safety, education and development of more than 347 million children worldwide. Extreme weather can disrupt school attendance, limit access to clean water and healthcare, and worsen malnutrition. Children in low income households are particularly vulnerable when climate shocks undermine family livelihoods and place additional pressure on already strained public services. Drought can deepen food shortages and increase the risk of malnutrition, while flooding can damage schools, health facilities and sanitation systems. Climate related displacement may further interrupt education and expose children to additional protection risks. These threats underline the importance of integrating child protection, education and healthcare into disaster preparedness and climate adaptation strategies. Governments, humanitarian agencies and development partners need to strengthen early warning systems, reinforce essential services and ensure that assistance reaches vulnerable communities before emergencies escalate. Protecting children from climate related shocks is not only an immediate humanitarian priority but also an investment in the long term social and economic resilience of affected countries. Aviation Security The security situation in the Middle East highlighted the exposure of international aviation and commercial transport to geopolitical shocks. Following the attacks on Riyadh, some airlines suspended or adjusted flights, while travelers faced warnings and alternative travel arrangements. The disruptions coincided with preparations for major international gatherings in Saudi Arabia, including the World Petroleum Congress. Organizers maintained that the events would proceed with additional security arrangements. Such incidents can disrupt business travel, tourism and logistics while increasing operating costs for airlines and other transport providers. They can also undermine confidence among investors and international businesses that depend on predictable travel conditions and reliable supply chains. For countries seeking to attract foreign investment and expand international trade, dependable transport networks and secure infrastructure are essential. Effective security planning and international coordination are therefore necessary not only to manage immediate threats but also to preserve the connectivity on which modern commerce depends. The episode illustrates how localized security incidents can affect international business activity, particularly when they occur near major transport hubs or in strategically important regions. Artificial Intelligence Artificial intelligence continued to feature in discussions about productivity, investment and financial regulation as policymakers assessed the opportunities and risks associated with rapid technological change. Reuters' market briefing identified AI regulation as an issue likely to feature in international economic discussions, particularly amid technological competition between the United States and China. The briefing also highlighted concerns about public debt, borrowing costs and volatility in bond markets. AI offers considerable potential to improve manufacturing, financial services, healthcare and public administration. However, its rapid expansion raises questions about electricity demand, digital infrastructure, cybersecurity, employment and the concentration of technological power among a relatively small number of companies and countries. For developing economies, the priority is to harness these technologies without widening existing digital inequalities. Investment in electricity generation, telecommunications infrastructure, digital skills and appropriate regulatory frameworks will be critical to expanding access to technological opportunities and supporting domestic innovation. The challenge for policymakers is to create conditions in which technological progress contributes to productivity, employment and inclusive development while addressing risks to economic security and social welfare. Conclusion The developments of October 4 to 10 illustrated the increasingly close links between international security, economic stability and environmental resilience. Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continued to threaten civilian safety and commercial activity, while geopolitical uncertainty and rising economic pressures complicated efforts to sustain growth and protect vulnerable economies. At the same time, El Niño warnings and preparations for COP31 reinforced the urgency of climate adaptation, emissions reduction and humanitarian preparedness. Projections concerning the potential impact on millions of children further highlighted the need to protect vulnerable populations from extreme weather and disruptions to essential services. Taken together, these developments demonstrate how crises can cross borders and compound existing vulnerabilities. Conflict can disrupt energy supplies and transport networks, climate extremes can undermine agricultural production and food security, while financial instability can constrain public investment and development spending. Rapid technological change presents further opportunities but also demands careful regulation and broader access to infrastructure and skills. Addressing these challenges will require sustained diplomacy, stronger international cooperation and practical policies that strengthen resilience while protecting vulnerable populations. Ultimately, the effectiveness of global responses will depend on whether governments and international institutions can move beyond declarations and negotiations to deliver measurable improvements in security, economic stability and human welfare. Sources: The roundup draws on reporting and background information from Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, France 24, DW, The Guardian, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Financial Times, Bloomberg, CNBC, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal.

By Staff Writer From a renewed five-year political mandate and a reconstituted cabinet to strategic partnerships across Africa and Asia and major development milestones, Ethiopia’s October 4–10 week set the tone for a new chapter of governance, transformation and global engagement. Ethiopia closed a consequential week of political transition, institutional renewal and high-level diplomacy, laying the groundwork for a new five-year chapter under the Medemer Government. The reappointment of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, parliamentary endorsement of a renewed federal cabinet, expanding international partnerships and major economic initiatives collectively underscored the country’s ambitions to accelerate national transformation and strengthen its regional and global standing.   The week’s political momentum began with the opening of the new parliamentary year, setting the direction for the next phase of the Medemer Government. President Taye Atske Selassie’s address emphasized national unity, lasting peace, economic consolidation and institutional resilience as Ethiopia seeks to advance its development agenda and safeguard its sovereignty. A defining milestone was the swearing-in of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for a new five-year term, establishing the political foundation for the incoming administration. Parliament subsequently endorsed the new federal cabinet, marking a critical step toward translating the government’s mandate into policies, institutional reforms and tangible development outcomes. In its first regular session of the seventh parliamentary term, the House of Peoples’ Representatives endorsed the appointment of 22 federal cabinet ministers nominated by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The selection process considered educational qualifications, professional experience and demonstrated implementation capacity, alongside the importance of gender, ethnic and religious diversity. The appointments are intended to strengthen public service delivery and advance national interests in line with the expectations of citizens who participated in the June 1 General Election, in which more than 54 million people were registered to vote.   Diplomacy, meanwhile, emerged as a defining force in Ethiopia’s engagement with the wider world. Prime Minister Abiy’s talks with Nigerian Vice President Kashim Shettima in Addis Ababa highlighted the potential to deepen cooperation between two of Africa’s major political and economic players. Discussions explored opportunities in trade, investment and continental integration, reinforcing the importance of stronger African partnerships in unlocking shared prosperity and advancing the continent’s development aspirations.   Ethiopia’s engagement with India added another strategic dimension to the week. In his meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar, Prime Minister Abiy explored avenues for expanding bilateral cooperation in trade, higher education, cultural exchange and digital transformation. The discussions reflected the longstanding relationship between the two countries and their shared interest in opening new frontiers of strategic cooperation.   At the same time, Ethiopia’s pursuit of reliable and sovereign access to the sea remained prominent in the national conversation. Former Speaker of the House of Peoples’ Representatives Abadula Gemeda reaffirmed the country’s determination to advance its strategic interests, underscoring the importance of maritime access to Ethiopia’s economic future, regional connectivity and geopolitical aspirations. Water diplomacy also featured prominently. Water and Energy Minister Habtamu Itefa highlighted Ethiopia’s efforts to assess the economic costs and lost development opportunities associated with obstacles to Nile-related projects. The initiative brought renewed attention to Ethiopia’s pursuit of equitable water utilization and its determination to advance development projects that serve its population while supporting regional cooperation. Economic transformation gained further momentum with a major step in mineral value addition. The inauguration of a National Precious Metals Refinery at the Bole Lemi Special Economic Zone marked progress toward expanding domestic mineral processing, retaining more value within the national economy and strengthening foreign-exchange earnings. By developing its capacity to refine precious metals domestically, Ethiopia is pursuing a broader industrial ambition: moving beyond raw-material exports toward higher-value production, investment and job creation.   Environmental sustainability offered another important highlight. International forestry specialists and United Nations experts commended Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative for its contribution to ecological restoration and climate resilience. The initiative continues to reinforce Ethiopia’s ambition to align economic development with environmental protection while advancing its wider climate and sustainability commitments. Peacebuilding and humanitarian response remained equally important to the national agenda. The National Rehabilitation Commission called on remaining armed militants in Tigray to surrender their weapons and join the rehabilitation and demobilization process, highlighting the continuing importance of peacebuilding and reintegration. Meanwhile, the federal government continued emergency assistance to communities affected by recent climate-related challenges, reflecting the need to combine long-term development with timely responses to humanitarian needs. Preparations to observe the Seventh National Cybersecurity Month and the 19th National Flag Day further highlighted the importance of digital security, national identity and consensus-building as Ethiopia navigates an increasingly complex domestic and international environment. Taken together, the developments of October 4–10 reveal a government beginning its new term amid high public expectations, significant economic ambitions and a demanding regional geopolitical landscape. Cabinet renewal and institutional reform are central to the domestic agenda, while engagement with Nigeria and India demonstrates Ethiopia’s continuing efforts to diversify partnerships and expand its diplomatic reach.   The broader challenge will be to translate political commitments and diplomatic momentum into measurable improvements in citizens’ lives, stronger institutions, sustainable economic growth and lasting peace. As the Medemer Government begins its five-year journey, Ethiopia’s direction will be shaped not only by its pursuit of sovereignty and international influence, but also by its capacity to deliver inclusive development and turn national ambitions into tangible results.

By Staff Writer   October 11, 2026 (ENA) Since the emergence of its modern state, Egypt has never been a loyal neighbor or a sincere partner in the Nile Basin. Instead, it has consistently acted according to the logic of a colonial power seeking to subjugate Ethiopia and impose an empty form of guardianship over its resources and future. The record of successive Egyptian governments is filled with disappointments and sinister conspiracies aimed at obstructing the development of the Ethiopian people and depriving them of their natural right to development. Yet all these schemes have repeatedly shattered against the solid rock of Ethiopian sovereignty and its proud history. The early ambitions of the Egyptian regime became evident in the 1870s, when Cairo followed Khedive Ismail’s dream of establishing a vast empire at the expense of Ethiopian blood and rights. The Egyptian regime dispatched two massive, heavily armed military campaigns toward the rugged Ethiopian highlands, only to face a devastating Ethiopian response. At the Battle of Gundet in 1875, the Egyptian army suffered its first crushing blow of arrogance at the hands of Ethiopian heroes, resulting in the complete collapse of the invading forces. The Battle of Gura in 1876 was an even greater defeat, as the Egyptian army was virtually annihilated and hundreds of its soldiers were captured under the blows of Ethiopian forces. The remnants of the Khedive’s army fled, leaving behind the enduring disgrace of defeat. These resounding historical blows demonstrated to Egypt that it was far weaker than Ethiopia in direct confrontation, prompting it to retreat into political cowardice and turn submissively toward shadow warfare and proxy wars. Egypt did not content itself with the bitterness of military defeat. It subsequently revealed an overtly colonial face in the aftermath of the Second World War. When Egypt was among those opposing, within the corridors of the United Nations, the return of Eritrea to Ethiopia, the international community rejected its ambitions and issued a decision in 1952 establishing a federation between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Because Egypt never accepted a strong or stable Ethiopia, it quickly moved to undermine and dismantle the federal arrangement from within by adopting policies aimed at fracturing Ethiopia’s social fabric.   With President Gamal Abdel Nasser coming to power in the mid-1950s, Egypt officially became a principal host of the Eritrean rebellion and a major financier of separatist movements. The Eritrean Liberation Front was established and used the Egyptian capital as a principal base for its activities beginning in July 1960, receiving comprehensive financial, logistical, and training support to fracture the territorial unity of northern Ethiopia. Egypt did not stop there. A massive media apparatus, particularly the Voice of the Arabs radio station, was mobilized to broadcast messages of fragmentation, inflame divisions, and attempt to strategically suffocate Ethiopia from its maritime flank. This systematic support continued for decades with the aim of tying Ethiopia’s hands and keeping it preoccupied with exhausting internal conflicts that would obstruct any genuine path to development. The conspiracies did not stop at supporting armed groups. They extended into the corridors of international and financial organizations through questionable means, using Egyptian influence in an attempt to economically subjugate Ethiopia. In this context, the controversial role of prominent Egyptian figures such as Boutros Boutros-Ghali stands out. Boutros-Ghali, a former Egyptian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs who later became Secretary-General of the United Nations, used Egyptian diplomacy to impose a suffocating financial blockade and arbitrarily deny Ethiopia international loans and financing from the World Bank and major financial institutions for infrastructure projects and dams on the Aba (Nile River), in a desperate attempt to entrench unilateral colonial dominance. Recent regional developments reveal growing risks from Egypt’s efforts to form a coordinated front against Ethiopia’s rise. The quadrilateral summit hosted by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in New Alamein on October 4, 2026, with the participation of Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea, has raised concerns that Cairo is seeking to intensify regional pressure on Ethiopia under the guise of security cooperation. The summit’s focus on Nile waters, Red Sea security, and coordination among governments raises serious questions about the strategic objectives of this alignment. These moves come amid Egypt and Eritrea are supporting anati-peace forces seeking to destabilize the country. The convergence of diplomatic pressure, regional military coordination, and allegations of support for armed groups poses risks as Ethiopia pursues its development ambitions and seeks reliable sea access through dialogue. Rather than accepting Ethiopia’s growing economic and strategic influence as a reality requiring constructive engagement, Egypt risks deepening regional divisions and undermining stability in the Horn of Africa. Yet no summit or political alignment can erase Ethiopia’s sovereign interests or derail the aspirations of its people to strengthen the country’s standing and influence across Africa. All in all, decades of carefully orchestrated conspiracies, proxy wars, and attempts at diplomatic and economic isolation have only made Ethiopia more resilient, self-reliant, and strong. Throughout history, the courageous Ethiopian people and their leadership have demonstrated that the will of free people can overcome all forms of hostility and disguised guardianship. Ethiopia’s continued advance today in its major national development projects, driven by the efforts of its own people, represents the greatest rebuke and decisive response that permanently shatters the illusions of Egyptian dominance and affirms that Ethiopian sovereignty is a red line that cannot be violated. Ethiopia’s recent sovereign measures are fully consistent with this historical approach. On October 1 of this year, Ethiopia took a decisive decision to close its embassy in Asmara and declared ten Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, giving them 48 hours to leave the country, following their involvement in activities deemed to pose a direct threat to Ethiopia’s national security and in escalating hostile acts. On the same day, Ethiopia declared Egyptian diplomat Ahmed Moharam Ahmed Suleiman persona non grata and also demanded that he leave the country within 48 hours. These firm sovereign measures are nothing more than the natural outcome and direct response to Egypt’s continued policies of using Eritrea as a proxy to destabilize the Horn of Africa, in a desperate attempt to obstruct Ethiopia’s progress as it continues to flourish and grow into an emerging diplomatic, economic, and military power firmly rooted in the African continent.

By Yordanos D.   October 10, 2026 (ENA) For generations, Abay (Blue Nile) has been treated primarily as a dispute over water. For Ethiopia, however, the river represents something much larger: a question of development, sovereignty and the right of a nation to transform its natural resources into a better future for its people. Most importantly, the country considers such development on Abay would accelerate regional integration in the region and beyond. In a country confronting persistent food insecurity, expanding energy demand, rapid population growth, industrialization pressures and the effects of climate variability, the ability to store and use water is inseparable from the ability to generate electricity, irrigate farmland, produce food, create jobs and build a productive economy. This broader perspective is essential to understanding Ethiopia’s long and often difficult engagement with the Nile. The dispute did not begin with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). It is rooted in a much older regional order shaped by colonial-era arrangements, unequal political influence and competing interpretations of rights over the river. Ethiopia was not a party to the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Nile arrangement or the 1959 Egypt-Sudan agreement, yet the legacy of these agreements has continued to influence political arguments over the use of the Nile. The central question has therefore never been simply how much water Ethiopia should use, but whether historical arrangements can continue to constrain the development choices of an upstream country whose economic and social needs have changed fundamentally. The struggle has also had a financial dimension. Development can be constrained not only by physical obstruction but by the political environment surrounding finance, investment and international institutions. Ethiopia’s experience with major water infrastructure has repeatedly demonstrated the difficulty of converting technical potential into completed development projects when financing becomes entangled with geopolitics. The GERD consequently acquired significance far beyond its engineering dimensions. It became a test of whether Ethiopia could mobilize its own people, institutions and financial resources to undertake a strategic national project when access to conventional external financing was politically complicated. The completion of the GERD has changed that equation, but it has not ended the larger development challenge. Ethiopia still requires additional water infrastructure to address electricity shortages, expand irrigation, strengthen food security, manage floods and droughts, support industrialization and create the conditions for sustained economic growth. The question now is how the country can move from one landmark project to a broader, financially sustainable and environmentally responsible water development strategy while maintaining cooperation with downstream states. At the same time, the Nile question has become increasingly intertwined with the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s growing economic capacity, its expanding electricity exports, its pursuit of regional integration and its efforts to secure reliable and mutually beneficial access to the Red Sea have altered the strategic calculations of neighboring states and external powers. This must therefore be understood within a wider contest over development, economic influence and regional order. This does not make confrontation inevitable. On the contrary, Ethiopia’s strongest long-term position lies in combining development with diplomacy. Equitable and reasonable utilization of shared water resources can provide a foundation for cooperation if all basin countries recognize that the Nile must support both existing needs and legitimate future development. The river need not remain a source of perpetual rivalry. With investment, scientific cooperation, transparent information sharing and mutually beneficial energy and agricultural systems, it can become an engine of regional economic integration. The story of Ethiopia’s Nile policy is consequently not simply the story of a dam. It is the story of a country seeking to overcome historical development constraints, strengthen financial autonomy and transform natural resources into productive capacity. The GERD is one chapter in that story. The larger challenge is whether Ethiopia can build a new generation of water, energy and agricultural infrastructure that turns its rivers into foundations for food security, industrialization, employment and regional prosperity. Financial Dimension The financial dimension of this history is especially important. Development can be constrained without a single dam being physically attacked or a construction site being closed. Diplomatic opposition to external financing can increase political risk, discourage lenders and investors, and make major infrastructure projects more difficult and expensive to develop. Academic and policy literature has documented claims that Egypt used diplomatic influence to discourage international financial institutions from supporting upstream Nile projects. Research during the GERD era has also described lobbying involving institutions such as the African Development Bank, World Bank and European Investment Bank. Such claims should be examined project by project and supported by documentary evidence. Nevertheless, the broader historical pattern is significant. Ethiopia’s efforts to convert its water resources into electricity and irrigation have repeatedly encountered geopolitical resistance. This history helps explain the significance of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. When conventional external financing proved difficult to secure, Ethiopia increasingly turned to domestic mobilization. Citizens purchased bonds and contributed through savings and donations, while the government and state institutions mobilized substantial domestic resources. The GERD consequently became more than an infrastructure project. It became a demonstration of Ethiopia’s capacity to finance a strategic national undertaking despite difficulties in securing conventional international project finance. Reflecting on this domestic achievement, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized, “For 14 years, millions of ordinary citizens contributed to finance the construction of GERD, ranging from farmers and daily laborers to students and civil servants." Economic Accountability The issue has now entered a new phase. In October 2026, Water and Energy Minister Habtamu Itefa announced that Ethiopia had established a national committee to assess economic losses and foregone development opportunities associated with water projects that Ethiopia says were “blocked or obstructed by Egyptians.” According to the minister, the committee had identified more than 22 projects, including the GERD. "Number one is to identify and to claim the total amount of loss that they have imposed on Ethiopia because of our development. We have prepared as many projects as possible which they have opposed, including the GERD,” he said. The significance of this initiative extends beyond the question of compensation. It represents an attempt to quantify a dimension of the Nile dispute that has often remained political and rhetorical: the development opportunities Ethiopia says it lost because of external opposition. If properly documented on a project-by-project basis, such an assessment could provide a more concrete basis for understanding how diplomatic pressure, financing constraints and geopolitical competition affected Ethiopia’s infrastructure development over several decades. Water Infrastructure, and Food Security Ethiopia has repeatedly stated that completing one dam does not exhaust its development needs. A country of more than 120 million people facing rapid urbanization, industrialization, food insecurity and rising electricity demand cannot reasonably be expected to freeze its water infrastructure at the level that existed before the GERD. The country needs more electricity for households, schools, hospitals, irrigation systems, industrial parks, manufacturing facilities, transport infrastructure and digital services. It also needs reliable water storage to reduce its dependence on increasingly unpredictable rainfall. The nation is widely described as the “Water Tower of East Africa” because of its substantial highland rainfall and extensive river systems. Yet possessing water resources is not equivalent to having usable water infrastructure. The country’s major river basins contain substantial hydropower, irrigation and water supply potential, much of which remains underdeveloped. The development gap is particularly visible in electricity access and agricultural productivity. Millions of Ethiopians have historically depended on traditional biomass for cooking and household energy, while electricity consumption per person remains low by international standards. At the same time, much of the agricultural economy continues to depend on seasonal rainfall, leaving millions of farmers exposed to drought, irregular rainfall and increasingly severe climate shocks. Properly designed multipurpose reservoirs can provide electricity, irrigation, domestic water supply, flood regulation and drought management simultaneously. They can create infrastructure for agricultural commercialization and industrialization while reducing the volatility created by seasonal rainfall. Agriculture remains central to Ethiopia’s economy and employment structure. Yet rain-fed farming leaves millions of farmers exposed to climatic uncertainty. Expanding irrigation can fundamentally change this equation. Multipurpose dams connected to modern irrigation networks can allow farmers to move from dependence on a single rainy season toward more reliable and, where conditions permit, multiple cropping cycles. The objective should therefore not simply be to build more reservoirs. It should be to create integrated water and agricultural systems in which storage, irrigation, roads, electricity, markets, storage facilities and agro-processing develop together. Building Hydrological Buffers Ethiopia’s rainfall is highly seasonal and geographically uneven. Large volumes of annual runoff occur during a relatively short rainy season, while many areas experience extended dry periods. This creates a fundamental water management challenge: substantial quantities of water can arrive within weeks or months, while communities and farms require reliable supplies throughout the year. Storage infrastructure provides one mechanism for managing this imbalance. Well-designed reservoirs can capture part of the excess water during periods of heavy rainfall and release it gradually during dry periods. They can moderate flood peaks, improve irrigation reliability and support electricity generation when natural river flows decline. The value of storage is likely to become increasingly important as climate variability intensifies. Ethiopia cannot control global climate change, but it can strengthen its capacity to manage its consequences through reservoirs, watershed restoration, irrigation, soil conservation, early warning systems and improved hydrological forecasting. Dam construction must therefore be accompanied by serious watershed management. Afforestation, soil conservation, erosion control and sediment management are essential because the long-term performance of reservoirs depends not only on engineering design but also on the condition of the watersheds that feed them. Equitable Utilization Ethiopia’s pursuit of additional water infrastructure does not inherently conflict with cooperation with downstream countries. On the contrary, equitable and reasonable utilization provides a framework through which the development interests of all Nile Basin states can be recognized. Reaffirming this legal baseline, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stated: "Ethiopia reaffirms its legal right to the equitable and reasonable utilization of the Nile waters... Our development seeks peace, shared growth, and mutual benefit, not harm to downstream neighbors." This is particularly important because the Nile Basin is not composed of countries with identical levels of development, population pressures, water availability or economic needs. A sustainable basin framework must therefore account for changing demographic realities and legitimate development requirements rather than freezing the basin into historical patterns of utilization. Ethiopia’s position can consequently be framed not as a demand for unlimited use, but as a demand for development within a cooperative and rules-based framework. Ethiopia can recognize downstream interests while insisting that its own people also possess legitimate interests in electricity, irrigation, food security and economic development. Geopolitics of Development Pressure Ethiopia’s pursuit of hydropower, agricultural development and Red Sea access has altered regional strategic calculations and generated new concerns among neighboring states. Ethiopia maintains that the project is essential to its development and can operate without causing significant harm to downstream countries. The disagreement has consequently evolved into both a water dispute and a broader geopolitical contest. From Ethiopia’s perspective, the dispute over water resources cannot be examined separately from the wider geopolitical environment surrounding the country. In particular, Ethiopian officials and political actors have increasingly raised concerns about what they regard as a convergence between Egypt and Eritrea aimed at constraining Ethiopia’s regional influence and development. The Egypt-Eritrea convergence narrative rests on the argument that Cairo and Asmara have found common strategic ground in opposing the expansion of Ethiopia’s economic, political and strategic capacity. The significance of the relationship lies partly in Eritrea’s strategic location on the Red Sea and Egypt’s longstanding concern about Ethiopia’s growing influence in the Horn. Egypt and Eritrea have also been supporting forces hostile to the Ethiopian government and of contributing to a regional security environment that places additional pressure on Addis Ababa. These include claims involving diplomatic pressure, political networks and support for actors opposed to the Ethiopian government. A stronger Ethiopia means greater electricity generation, expanded irrigation, increased industrial capacity, stronger foreign exchange earnings and greater ability to pursue independent regional diplomacy. It also means a country with greater leverage in its relations with neighboring states and greater capacity to pursue its long-term ambition for dependable and mutually beneficial access to the Red Sea. The appropriate response is not simply confrontation. The strongest answer to external pressure is accelerated development, institutional resilience, financial self-reliance and sustained diplomatic engagement. Every additional megawatt generated, every hectare brought under irrigation, every industrial investment attracted and every regional electricity connection established can reduce the vulnerabilities that external actors might exploit. Next Generation of Dams The most important lesson from the GERD may ultimately be financial rather than political. Ethiopia demonstrated that large strategic infrastructure can be financed through substantial domestic mobilization when conventional external financing is unavailable or politically complicated. The next stage, however, should be more sophisticated. Domestic resources should remain central, but they can be combined with carefully structured concessional finance, private investment, diaspora capital, institutional investors, green finance and revenues generated through electricity exports. The objective should be to build a diversified infrastructure financing system that reduces exposure to political pressure from any single external actor. Electricity exports are particularly important in this regard. Ethiopia’s expanding generation capacity creates the possibility of converting hydropower into foreign exchange while simultaneously supporting industrialization at home. Electricity exports to neighboring countries can therefore serve two purposes: strengthening regional economic interdependence and improving Ethiopia’s capacity to finance future infrastructure. A stronger domestic financial system would also allow Ethiopia to mobilize its own savings more effectively. Pension funds, insurance institutions, banks, long-term savings schemes and capital markets can become sources of infrastructure finance if appropriate safeguards and investment frameworks are established. The GERD represents a historic milestone, but it should not be viewed as the endpoint of Ethiopia’s water development. The next challenge is to build an integrated national water strategy across the country’s major river basins. Regional Integration Ethiopia’s hydropower potential also offers a powerful opportunity for regional integration. Electricity can cross borders without many of the logistical complications associated with transporting physical commodities. Underlining this vision, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized: "Regional integration and trade will be crucial to the future of our continent, allowing us to grow beyond primary commodities and accelerate our shared development." Ethiopia can produce renewable electricity, export it to neighboring countries and use the resulting revenues to finance further economic development. Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya and other neighboring countries can benefit from reliable and relatively low-carbon electricity, while Ethiopia benefits from export earnings and stronger regional economic relationships. This creates an important alternative to the traditional zero-sum conception of Nile politics. Instead of asking which country gains and which country loses from every cubic meter of water, the region can increasingly ask how shared water resources can generate more electricity, more food, more trade and greater economic security for everyone. Conclusion Ethiopia’s case for continued development of its water resources rests on a straightforward reality: a country cannot eradicate poverty, expand food production, industrialize and provide modern energy to its population while leaving much of its water infrastructure potential unused. The GERD demonstrated that Ethiopia can overcome major financial and geopolitical obstacles through domestic mobilization and strategic determination. The government’s initiative to document more than 22 projects it says were obstructed by Egypt provides an opportunity to examine the historical dimension of the dispute through evidence rather than rhetoric. The central issue is therefore no longer whether Ethiopia will develop its water resources. It is how it will do so. For Ethiopia, water development is ultimately about much more than dams. It is about turning rainfall and river flows into electricity, irrigation, food, employment, industrial production and economic opportunity. For the wider Nile Basin, the choice is between continuing to treat water development as a zero-sum geopolitical struggle and recognizing water infrastructure as a potential foundation for regional integration. Ethiopia’s legitimate development aspirations cannot be subordinated indefinitely to historical patterns of water utilization. The strongest Ethiopian strategy, therefore, is neither confrontation nor retreat. It is evidence, engineering, financial resilience, responsible resource management and diplomacy. If Ethiopia can combine these elements, its rivers can become not instruments of regional rivalry but foundations for national transformation, food security, energy security and shared prosperity across the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia's prolonged political instability and the recurring conflicts cannot be understood entirely through the lens of domestic political divisions. These internal vulnerabilities were created and aggravated by local and external actors to pursue strategic interests inside Ethiopia and across the Horn of Africa. Among the external actors most frequently identified by geopolitical analysts is Egypt. The Ethiopian argument is not simply that Egypt opposes the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). It is that Egyptian policy toward Ethiopia has, over decades, extended into a broader political and diplomatic effort aimed at limiting Ethiopia's strategic rise, weakening its regional influence and preventing it from acquiring greater control over the natural and economic resources necessary for national development. Seen from this perspective, Egypt's activities concerning the Nile, Ethiopia's internal political conflicts, the Eritrean question, Sudan, Somalia, the Red Sea and the GERD form parts of a wider pattern of strategic pressure. The central Ethiopian concern is that a divided, unstable and economically constrained Ethiopia is easier to contain than a peaceful, prosperous and strategically autonomous Ethiopia. Pressure on Ethiopia The most persistent source of Egyptian pressure on Ethiopia has been the Nile. The Blue Nile originates in Ethiopia and provides a major share of the water flowing downstream toward Sudan and Egypt. For Ethiopia, the river represents an enormous development opportunity. Its waters can generate electricity, support irrigation, expand agricultural production, improve food security, create industries and contribute to poverty reduction. For decades, however, Ethiopia has faced a regional water order shaped largely by arrangements made without its participation. The 1929 Anglo Egyptian Nile Waters Agreement and the 1959 Egypt Sudan agreement became central components of a system that Ethiopia has consistently rejected as incapable of determining the rights of an upstream sovereign state that was not a party to those agreements. Ethiopia's objection is fundamental. It argues that historical arrangements between downstream countries cannot permanently prevent an upstream country from using its own natural resources for development. The Ethiopian position is based on the principle of equitable and reasonable utilization of international watercourses. From this perspective, attempts to preserve historical water arrangements at Ethiopia's expense constitute more than a disagreement over water. They represent an effort to maintain a political order in which Ethiopia's development remains constrained. Challenge to Existing Regional Order The construction of the GERD became the clearest expression of Ethiopia's determination to break from that historical pattern. The project transformed Ethiopia's relationship with the Nile from one of limited utilization into one of strategic national development. The dam demonstrated that Ethiopia could mobilize domestic resources, national political support and international engineering capacity to undertake a project of continental significance. For Ethiopians, the GERD represents much more than a hydroelectric facility. It represents national sovereignty, the right to development, Ethiopia's determination to use its natural resources to generate electricity, expand industry, improve agricultural productivity and create opportunities for millions of citizens. Egypt's sustained campaign against the project has therefore been interpreted in Ethiopia not simply as opposition to a dam, but as opposition to a fundamental transformation in Ethiopia's economic and strategic position. The Ethiopian concern is that if Ethiopia is prevented from developing its water resources, the country will remain trapped in poverty and energy insecurity while its enormous natural potential remains underutilized. Diplomatic Pressure According to Ethiopian critics, one of the most important instruments used against Ethiopia has been diplomatic pressure. Rather than confronting Ethiopia only through direct bilateral negotiations, Egypt has repeatedly internationalized the Nile dispute and sought political support in regional and international institutions. From the Ethiopian perspective, this has created an environment in which Ethiopian development projects are increasingly treated as international security questions. The concern is that diplomatic campaigns can influence international institutions, development partners, financial institutions and governments that might otherwise support Ethiopia's infrastructure ambitions. The consequence, Ethiopian critics argue, is a form of indirect pressure. Instead of physically stopping a project, external political pressure can make financing more difficult, complicate international partnerships, create diplomatic uncertainty and portray Ethiopian development initiatives as potential sources of regional instability. This is particularly significant for a developing country whose transformation depends on large investments in energy, transport, agriculture, manufacturing and infrastructure. Exploiting Internal Vulnerabilities The most serious Ethiopian concerns the interaction between external pressure and domestic political divisions. Ethiopia has experienced repeated political crises, armed insurgencies and conflicts involving competing political and ethnic forces. The Ethiopian argument is that foreign powers do not necessarily need to create these divisions themselves. Existing grievances can be exploited, encouraged or politically amplified when doing so serves external strategic interests. This is where the concept of political sabotage becomes important. Political sabotage does not necessarily mean openly creating an armed organization. It can include diplomatic support for opposing political forces, strategic alliances with neighboring governments, political lobbying, information campaigns, military cooperation and international pressure. When such activities occur alongside an internal conflict, they can prolong instability and make political settlement more difficult. For Ethiopia, the danger is particularly severe because prolonged internal conflict consumes resources that could otherwise be directed toward development. A government struggling with insurgency has fewer resources for schools, hospitals, electricity, roads, irrigation, industrialization and job creation. A country preoccupied with internal security also has less diplomatic and economic capacity to pursue major regional initiatives. Loss of Sea Access The Eritrean question represents one of the most consequential historical developments in Ethiopia's modern history. Nevertheless, Eritrea's strategic location made the conflict a matter of regional competition. Eritrea contained Ethiopia's principal Red Sea ports, including Massawa and Assab. The eventual separation of Eritrea transformed Ethiopia from a country with direct maritime access into a landlocked state. The consequences were enormous. Ethiopia became dependent on neighboring countries for access to international maritime trade. The cost of transporting imports and exports increased. Strategic dependence on neighboring states became a permanent feature of Ethiopia's economic position. For Ethiopian strategists, the loss of maritime access cannot be separated from the broader geopolitical history of the Horn. Declassified US diplomatic records from the 1970s show that Arab states were deeply involved in the regional politics surrounding the Eritrean insurgency. The historical record does not establish that Egypt alone created the Eritrean movement, and some US assessments actually distinguished Egypt from more active supporters of Eritrean insurgents such as Libya, Iraq and Syria. Nevertheless, Egypt was an important regional actor in the wider political environment surrounding the Eritrean question. For Ethiopia, the strategic outcome remains profound: the country lost its direct access to the Red Sea. That loss continues to influence Ethiopian foreign policy decades later. Ethiopia's landlocked status has become one of the country's most important economic and strategic vulnerabilities. The country conducts the overwhelming majority of its international maritime trade through neighboring ports. This creates dependence on foreign infrastructure, foreign political stability and the goodwill of neighboring states. For a country of Ethiopia's population and economic potential, the absence of reliable sovereign maritime access imposes significant strategic costs. Transportation expenses affect the prices of imported goods. Export competitiveness can be reduced. Industrial development becomes more expensive. Energy and infrastructure projects become more dependent on regional corridors. The Ethiopian pursuit of maritime access is therefore not merely a geopolitical ambition. It is directly connected to economic development. From the Ethiopian perspective, any external effort to prevent Ethiopia from developing reliable maritime partnerships can be interpreted as an attempt to preserve its strategic vulnerability. Regional Alignments Ethiopian concerns have intensified as Egypt has expanded security and political relations with countries surrounding Ethiopia. Egypt's military cooperation with Somalia has attracted particular attention. In 2024, Egypt sent military equipment to Somalia following a security agreement between the two countries. The development occurred amid heightened tensions after Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland concerning maritime access. From an Ethiopian perspective, the timing and strategic implications of this relationship are significant. Ethiopia sees its maritime access initiative as an economic and strategic necessity. At the same time, the emergence of stronger Egyptian security cooperation with Somalia creates the possibility of Ethiopia facing a more coordinated regional political environment. The same concern applies to Sudan. Egypt has maintained close relations with Sudanese state institutions, particularly the Sudanese military establishment. The Sudanese conflict has subsequently become another arena in which Ethiopian security interests intersect with Egyptian regional interests. For Ethiopia, the accumulation of such relationships raises a fundamental concern: whether neighboring countries are gradually becoming part of a regional strategic network capable of limiting Ethiopia's freedom of action. Eritrea Eritrea remains another critical element of Ethiopia's strategic calculations. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have passed through periods of war, reconciliation and renewed tension. The 1998 to 2000 Ethiopia Eritrea war caused enormous human and economic losses. The conflict weakened both countries and deepened the militarization of the northern Horn. The subsequent political developments created another layer of regional competition. For Ethiopian analysts, the possibility that external actors could encourage confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea is particularly dangerous. Recent reports concerning renewed tensions in Tigray have again highlighted allegations of external involvement in Ethiopia's internal conflicts. Egyptian and Sudanese support for forces to weaken Ethiopian sovereignty have been reported. An internal Ethiopian conflict can quickly become a regional conflict. Conflict Internationalization The Tigray conflict demonstrated how rapidly an internal Ethiopian crisis can acquire an international dimension. The conflict drew the involvement of Eritrea, Sudan and international diplomatic actors and generated intense competition over narratives, humanitarian access and political legitimacy. For Ethiopia, this experience reinforced the perception that internal conflicts can become instruments of broader geopolitical competition. Domestic political disagreements can consequently become internationalized. This is one of the strongest arguments advanced by critics who accuse Egypt of exploiting Ethiopia's internal vulnerabilities. Their argument is not necessarily that every Ethiopian insurgency was created in Cairo. Rather, it is that external actors can identify existing weaknesses and use them to restrict Ethiopia's strategic freedom. The Politics of Isolation A strong Ethiopia with stable relations with its neighbors, expanding economic power, growing electricity production and reliable maritime access would possess considerable influence in the Horn of Africa. A politically divided Ethiopia would possess far less influence. Consequently, Ethiopian critics argue that attempts to weaken Ethiopia's diplomatic relationships or place pressure on its regional partnerships should be understood as part of a broader containment strategy. Such containment does not require military confrontation. It can occur through diplomatic lobbying, regional alliances, security agreements, political pressure and international campaigns. Why Strong Ethiopia Matters? Ethiopia's emergence as a stronger economic and political power would fundamentally change the Horn of Africa. The country possesses enormous hydropower potential, extensive agricultural land, renewable energy resources and a large domestic market. The GERD has already demonstrated Ethiopia's ability to mobilize national resources for large infrastructure projects. Further investment in electricity generation, irrigation, manufacturing, agriculture, transport corridors and digital infrastructure could transform the country into one of Africa's major economic centers. Reliable maritime access would strengthen this transformation further. A stronger Ethiopia would also have greater capacity to contribute to regional integration. It could export electricity, expand cross border trade, support regional infrastructure and become a major economic link between the Horn of Africa and the wider continent. From the Ethiopian perspective, this is precisely why external attempts to restrict Ethiopia's development potential are viewed as strategically significant. The Ethiopian argument can therefore be stated clearly. Egypt's influence should not be examined only through the GERD negotiations. It should be examined through the cumulative political environment surrounding Ethiopia. The Nile dispute has generated sustained diplomatic pressure. The GERD has become the central symbol of Ethiopia's struggle for economic and strategic autonomy. Taken together, these developments form the basis of the Ethiopian perception that Egypt has pursued a policy of strategic containment. Conclusion that Egypt is a major external factor behind Ethiopia's instability does not require the claim that Egypt created every Ethiopian conflict. But the Ethiopian case is that domestic weaknesses have repeatedly been exposed to external strategic pressure. The concern is that Egypt has used diplomatic influence, regional relationships and political alliances to constrain Ethiopia's strategic space, particularly when Ethiopia has attempted to expand its use of the Nile, strengthen its economy, develop major infrastructure or regain reliable access to the sea. The GERD has become the clearest example of this confrontation. Ethiopia's determination to develop its water resources has collided with an established regional order that Ethiopian policymakers consider unfair and incompatible with the country's right to development. The maritime question represents another dimension of the same struggle. A landlocked Ethiopia faces structural economic disadvantages. An Ethiopia with dependable maritime access, abundant electricity, expanding agriculture, growing manufacturing and stronger regional trade would possess considerably greater economic and political autonomy. For this reason, Ethiopian analysts increasingly view the Nile, the GERD, the Red Sea, maritime access, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia's internal conflicts as interconnected components of a larger geopolitical struggle.