Wars, Energy Shocks, Climate Extremes and a Shifting Global Order

By Staff Writer

The week of September 6 to 12, 2026, was marked by continuing conflicts, rising energy risks, diplomatic realignments and mounting climate and humanitarian pressures. The Middle East remained the most immediate source of concern for global security and energy markets, as tensions around strategic waterways threatened to disrupt oil supplies and international trade. The war in Ukraine also continued despite renewed diplomatic contacts, while the BRICS summit in New Delhi highlighted the growing influence of the Global South and provided a platform for a cautious rapprochement between India and China.

Climate and health concerns added to the pressure. The World Meteorological Organization reported that August 2026 was the hottest August on record and warned that a strong El Niño could intensify extreme weather into 2027. Humanitarian crises remained acute in Gaza and Sudan, while a new Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo raised concerns about regional disease transmission.

At the same time, artificial intelligence continued to move beyond the technology sector and into discussions about national security, economic development, military applications and global governance. Taken together, the week's developments underscored how closely security, energy, trade, climate, technology and humanitarian affairs have become intertwined.

Peace and Security

Middle East: The strategic waterways become a growing security risk as the Middle East remained the world's most immediate security and energy risk during the week, with the conflict involving Iran, the United States and regional actors continuing to threaten strategic transport routes.

In Yemen, Iran aligned Houthi forces advanced toward the Bab el Mandeb Strait and reached Perim Island, a strategically important position at the entrance to the Red Sea. Any prolonged disruption of the waterway could compound the impact of restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz, another critical route for global energy shipments.

Reuters reported that a closure of Bab el Mandeb could affect up to 7 percent of global oil supplies and about 12 percent of global trade. Saudi Arabia has sought greater US assistance against the Houthis, while Washington has so far favored intelligence and other forms of support rather than direct military involvement.

The risks increased after Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its East West oil pipeline following a drone attack believed to have originated from Iraq. The pipeline can carry between 4 million and 5 million barrels of oil a day and provides an alternative route for Saudi exports when the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.

The simultaneous vulnerability of Hormuz, Bab el Mandeb and alternative oil infrastructure has intensified fears of a wider energy and shipping shock. Prolonged disruption could raise oil and transport costs, increase inflationary pressure and weigh on global economic growth.

Gaza: Gaza remained caught between diplomatic efforts and continuing violence. Despite the ceasefire framework established in 2025, the humanitarian situation remained severe, with damaged infrastructure, restricted humanitarian access and deteriorating water systems leaving civilians increasingly vulnerable to hunger and disease.

UN agencies continued to warn that food insecurity remained widespread. Damage to water and health infrastructure has also increased the risk of communicable diseases.

The crisis illustrates the close relationship between Gaza's humanitarian emergency and the unresolved political and security questions surrounding the territory. Without sustained security arrangements, reconstruction and reliable humanitarian access, the humanitarian situation is likely to remain fragile.

Ukraine: The Russia Ukraine war remained active despite renewed diplomatic efforts.

US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff travelled to Kyiv following discussions in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The meetings sought to revive negotiations and explore prospects for further diplomacy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the discussions as substantive.

Diplomatic activity, however, did not translate into an immediate reduction in hostilities. Russian missile and drone attacks continued to strike Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine maintained attacks against targets inside Russia.

The principal obstacles remain unresolved, including territorial control, security guarantees for Ukraine and the future structure of European security. The continuing gap between diplomatic contacts and developments on the battlefield demonstrates the difficulty of converting negotiations into a durable settlement.

Europe: European governments are increasingly focused on hybrid threats linked to the Ukraine war, including drones, cyberattacks and possible sabotage of critical infrastructure.

Germany is preparing stronger measures following a drone incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport that German authorities attributed to Russian actors. The episode has reinforced wider European concerns about the vulnerability of airports, energy facilities, telecommunications networks and other critical infrastructure.

The shift reflects a broader understanding of modern conflict, in which pressure can be exerted through cyber operations, disruption of infrastructure and covert activities without crossing the threshold of conventional warfare.

Economy, Trade and Energy

Oil: Energy Markets Face Multiple Supply Risks

Energy markets were among the week's most closely watched economic developments, with oil prices moving above $100 a barrel amid concerns over disruptions to supplies and shipping.

The simultaneous risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el Mandeb and Saudi Arabia's alternative oil infrastructure have raised fears of a broader supply shock. A prolonged disruption could increase transportation and production costs worldwide and complicate central banks' efforts to contain inflation.

The episode also demonstrates the strategic importance of alternative energy routes. Infrastructure designed to bypass vulnerable maritime chokepoints can become critical during periods of geopolitical tension, but its effectiveness depends on its own security and operational continuity.

Global Growth Remains Fragile

The global economy continues to face a difficult combination of geopolitical uncertainty, elevated public debt, trade disputes and changing monetary conditions.

The World Bank projects global economic growth of about 2.5 percent in 2026. While growth remains positive, the outlook is constrained by persistent geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over trade and monetary policy.

The United States is also facing significant fiscal pressure. Its federal budget deficit reached about $1.97 trillion on a fiscal year to date basis, exceeding the deficit recorded during the whole of fiscal year 2025.

Because the United States remains central to global financial markets, developments in its fiscal and monetary policies influence borrowing costs, exchange rates and capital flows far beyond its borders.

Trade: Geopolitics Reshapes Global Supply Chains

Trade is increasingly being shaped by strategic considerations rather than market forces alone. Governments and companies are restructuring supply chains to improve resilience, protect strategic industries and secure access to critical minerals.

Trade tensions between the United States and Canada continued during the week, while businesses increasingly explored alternative suppliers and production locations.

This restructuring could create opportunities for resource rich developing countries, particularly in Africa. Rising demand for lithium, cobalt, copper, graphite and rare earth elements could support domestic processing and industrialization if African countries succeed in moving beyond the export of unprocessed commodities.

The opportunity, however, depends on investment in infrastructure, energy, skills, technology and effective industrial policies.

Diplomacy and Global Governance

BRICS Strengthens Its Global South Platform

The 2026 BRICS summit in New Delhi emerged as one of the week's most important diplomatic events, reinforcing the group's growing role in debates over global security, trade and international governance.

Leaders expressed concern over conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and criticised unilateral sanctions imposed outside the UN Security Council framework. They also called for greater protection of civilian infrastructure and nuclear facilities during armed conflicts.

Chinese President Xi Jinping urged BRICS to play a greater role in efforts to promote peace in the Middle East.

With its expanded membership, BRICS represents a substantial share of the world's population and economic output. Its growing influence reflects a broader effort by emerging powers to gain greater weight in institutions and decisions traditionally dominated by Western powers.

The summit nevertheless exposed the limits of the grouping. BRICS members have different political systems, economic interests and strategic priorities. Its expansion therefore strengthens its geopolitical weight while also making consensus more difficult.

India and China Pursue a Cautious Rapprochement

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit, signalling an effort to stabilise relations after years of tension.

Xi's visit was his first to India in seven years. The two leaders discussed border stability, trade, investment and regional connectivity. Bilateral trade reached a record $155.6 billion in 2025, although India's trade deficit with China remains substantial.

The meeting does not eliminate the countries' strategic rivalry, particularly over their disputed 3,800 kilometer border. However, improved relations could create space for greater trade and regional economic cooperation.

Their rapprochement is also significant beyond bilateral relations. Better India China ties could influence the wider balance within BRICS and shape cooperation among major powers of the Global South.

Africa

Sudan: Humanitarian Crisis Deepens

Sudan continues to face one of the world's largest humanitarian and security emergencies.

The UN Security Council extended the arms embargo covering Darfur for another month while discussions continued over a US proposal for a nationwide embargo. Washington argues that broader restrictions could increase pressure on Sudan's warring parties to enter negotiations, while Russia has opposed expanding the measure.

The conflict has displaced approximately 13 million people and contributed to famine conditions in parts of the country. Humanitarian agencies are also struggling with severe funding shortages, leaving millions without adequate food, healthcare and other essential assistance.

Sudan's crisis increasingly demonstrates how prolonged conflict can overwhelm humanitarian systems. Displacement, hunger, disease and the destruction of infrastructure are reinforcing one another, making a political settlement increasingly urgent.

Ebola: Regional Health Concerns Rise

The Democratic Republic of Congo is confronting another serious Ebola outbreak, prompting increased surveillance and preparedness measures in neighboring countries.

The World Health Organization has warned that insecurity, displacement and cross border population movement could complicate containment efforts. Countries including Kenya have strengthened preparedness at major border points, highlighting the importance of coordinated regional disease surveillance.

The outbreak reinforces the growing connection between public health, population mobility and regional security. Rapid detection, cross border information sharing and adequate health infrastructure remain essential to preventing localised outbreaks from becoming wider emergencies.

Climate and Environment

Record Heat Raises Concern Over Extreme Weather

The World Meteorological Organization reported that August 2026 was the hottest August on record and warned that a strong El Niño could intensify extreme weather into 2027.

The combination of rising global temperatures and El Niño increases the risk of heatwaves, droughts, floods and agricultural disruption. Extreme heat is also affecting labour productivity, infrastructure and electricity demand.

Climate change is therefore no longer solely an environmental issue. Its effects are increasingly visible in food security, public health, economic productivity, migration and national security.

Wildfires Add to Public Health Risks

Rising temperatures and increasingly frequent wildfires are also undermining air quality in some regions.

Wildfire smoke contains fine particulate matter that can travel long distances, increasing respiratory and cardiovascular risks far from the original fire zones.

The trend demonstrates how climate change can amplify several environmental and public health challenges simultaneously. Heat can increase wildfire risk, while smoke can worsen health conditions and place additional pressure on already stretched healthcare systems.

Technology and Artificial Intelligence

AI Safety Debate Intensifies

Artificial intelligence remained a major global technology issue, with growing attention to the security implications of increasingly capable systems.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for greater caution in the development of advanced AI models, arguing that safety evaluations need to keep pace with technological progress. He highlighted concerns about AI's potential use in weapons development, surveillance, cyber operations and fraud.

The debate is therefore moving beyond productivity and innovation toward questions of accountability, autonomous systems, national security and technological control.

The central policy challenge is becoming increasingly clear: governments and technology companies must determine how to capture the economic benefits of increasingly capable AI while limiting its potential to amplify existing security threats.

AI Offers Development Opportunities

At the same time, the World Bank has highlighted AI's potential to accelerate productivity in developing economies if countries invest in digital infrastructure, skills and effective institutions.

For Africa, AI could contribute to education, healthcare, agriculture, public administration and industrial development. Yet the continent also faces the risk of becoming overly dependent on technologies and platforms developed elsewhere.

Building local digital capacity, improving connectivity and developing technical skills will therefore be essential if African countries are to become users, developers and owners of AI technologies rather than simply consumers.

AI Supports Lunar Exploration

AI is also expanding the boundaries of scientific exploration.

NASA and IBM launched an open source AI model designed to analyse lunar data and identify geological features, including ice deposits, craters and volcanic formations.

The technology could support future lunar missions by helping scientists identify resources and potential landing sites. The development illustrates how AI is increasingly being applied not only to commercial and security challenges but also to scientific research and space exploration.

Latin America

Brazil Election Becomes Increasingly Competitive

Brazil's presidential election is becoming increasingly competitive. A September poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro tied at 41 percent in a potential runoff.

The election will carry significance beyond Brazil because of the country's economic weight, agricultural importance and role in BRICS and global climate diplomacy.

The outcome could influence Brazil's domestic economic policies as well as its position on environmental protection, regional integration and relations with major global powers.

Colombia Enters a New Political Phase

Colombia has also entered a new political phase following the election of right wing President Abelardo De La Espriella.

Former President Juan Manuel Santos has urged the new government to fully implement the FARC peace agreement, arguing that it remains important to addressing rural poverty, drug trafficking and violence.

The transition comes as Colombia continues to balance security concerns with the long term challenge of consolidating peace and expanding economic opportunities in areas historically affected by conflict.

The Week in Perspective

The week's developments reveal several broader trends shaping the international system.

Geopolitics is increasingly affecting the global economy. Conflicts are no longer confined to battlefields. They are directly influencing oil prices, shipping routes, inflation, production costs and global supply chains.

The international system is becoming more multipolar. The BRICS summit, the India China rapprochement and renewed diplomatic contacts involving Washington, Moscow and Beijing point to a more complex distribution of global power. Yet greater multipolarity does not necessarily mean greater cooperation, as major powers continue to compete over security, trade, technology and strategic influence.

Climate and security are increasingly interconnected. Extreme heat, wildfires, floods and other climate related disasters are affecting food production, infrastructure, migration and public health. Climate pressures can also intensify existing economic and political vulnerabilities.

Humanitarian needs are outpacing international financing. Protracted conflicts are generating displacement, hunger and disease at a time when humanitarian agencies face serious funding constraints. Sudan and Gaza remain among the clearest examples of this widening gap.

AI is becoming a strategic issue. Governments and technology companies are increasingly concerned not only with the economic benefits of artificial intelligence but also with its military, cyber, surveillance and governance implications. At the same time, developing countries are seeking ways to use AI to accelerate economic and social development.

Conclusion

The week of September 6 to 12 demonstrated that the major challenges facing the international community cannot be considered in isolation. A conflict in the Middle East can affect oil prices and shipping costs thousands of kilometres away. A disruption in global trade can alter industrial strategies in Africa. Climate extremes can worsen food insecurity and displacement, while new technologies can simultaneously create opportunities for development and new forms of security risk.

The emerging global order is therefore defined not only by competition among major powers but also by the growing interdependence of security, energy, trade, climate, technology and humanitarian affairs.

The central challenge for governments is to manage these interconnected risks while maintaining channels for cooperation. The week's developments showed that geopolitical trust remains weak, but the need for international cooperation has rarely been greater.