Egypt Must Recognize 2026 Nile Reality, Not 19th/20th Century, Says Former US Diplomat Tibor Nagy

Addis Ababa, September 8, 2026 (ENA)—Egypt must recognize the changing political, economic and strategic realities of the Nile Basin in 2026 rather than relying on positions rooted in the 19th and 20th centuries, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy has said.

He further noted that a new approach could enable Ethiopia and Egypt to reach a “win-win” agreement over the Nile.

Nagy made the remarks in an interview with Pulse of Africa, which he subsequently highlighted in a post on X.

He said the regional balance of power has changed significantly and that Ethiopia has undergone substantial economic and political transformation.

“One of my consistent points has been that if Egypt recognized that this is 2026, not the 19th/20th Century, there could be a win-win agreement with Ethiopia over the Nile,” Nagy said.

 

He argued that Egypt needs to adjust its approach to the Nile and recognize what he described as a new regional reality.

“My view is Egypt has to accept a new reality. They could dictate terms, and they became very comfortable with the idea that even though they are downstream country, they don't contribute one drop of water to the Nile River, but they had the right for 100 percent control over the Nile,” Nagy said.

He said historical circumstances that shaped earlier approaches to Nile management can no longer be treated as the basis for relations among present-day Nile Basin countries.

“History has changed. They have to accept the fact that this is, again, 2026. There's a new power equilibrium. Ethiopia has grown tremendously.  It's in very fast nation building mode, and it has rights to Nile waters, which were historically denied to Ethiopia,” Nagy said.

He argued that a change in Egypt’s negotiating approach could create an opportunity for a mutually beneficial settlement.

“So if Egypt had an attitude readjustment, and if they came to the negotiations, I think, from a different, fundamental philosophy, then it would be possible to come to some kind, again, a win-win agreement that respects everybody's dignity, everybody's rights,” he said.

His comments come amid the long-running dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over the management and utilization of the Abay, or Blue Nile, particularly following the construction and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Ethiopia maintains that the GERD is primarily intended to generate electricity, support economic development and expand access to energy, while emphasizing that the use of transboundary water resources should be based on equitable and reasonable utilization.

 

Nagy said Ethiopia’s development should not automatically be viewed as a threat to Egypt, arguing that countries have the right to develop their natural resources.

“Countries use their own natural resources. Now, you know, let’s get real,” he said.

He also called for the two countries to approach the Nile issue primarily through technical cooperation rather than geopolitical competition.

“If Egypt is saying that, you know, only the littoral states to the Red Sea have any say in, you know, management questions then only the states that contribute water to the Nile would have any say on use of the Nile,” Nagy said.

He added that both sides should approach the dispute as equal partners.

“The only thing that can be done is for both sides to treat the other as equal partners, respectfully, and to come at it from a technical point of view, and just forget the geopolitics, because what's important is for everybody to have access to Nile waters,” the former diplomat said.

Nagy linked the Nile dispute to the wider question of Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea, arguing that regional countries should apply principles of mutual access and cooperation consistently.

“Why can't everybody have access to the Red Sea?” he asked.

His comments come as Ethiopia increasingly emphasizes equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary water resources while calling for dialogue, cooperation and mutually beneficial arrangements among Nile Basin countries.

Addis Ababa has consistently argued that development projects should not be treated as a zero-sum competition in which the economic progress of one country necessarily comes at the expense of another.

Nagy said a lasting agreement could be reached if Egypt reassessed its approach to negotiations and entered discussions with a fundamentally different outlook.

“Both nations start with a new attitude and come out with an agreement that everybody will be happy with,” he said.

The former U.S. diplomat’s remarks therefore frame the Nile issue not only as a dispute over water management, but also as part of a broader transformation in regional relations, economic development and the distribution of political influence in the Horn of Africa.

Nagy also expressed support for Ethiopia’s pursuit of reliable access to the Red Sea, describing maritime access as an important issue for the landlocked country.

Ethiopia has argued that dependable access to the sea is essential to its economic and strategic interests and has sought cooperative arrangements with neighboring coastal states.

Addressing Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations, Nagy said it was “absolutely essential” for Ethiopia to have some form of maritime outlet, while recalling the country’s historical relationship with the Red Sea.

He noted that Ethiopia once had its own navy, a naval base and Ethiopian admirals serving in its maritime forces.

 

Nagy described the loss of Ethiopia’s access to the sea as a “very unfortunate” outcome and connected the country’s current pursuit of maritime access with its historical relationship with the Red Sea.

The former diplomat’s comparison between Nile water and Red Sea access reflects his broader argument that regional disputes should be addressed through principles of equality, mutual respect and practical cooperation rather than inherited geopolitical assumptions.

Against this broader regional backdrop, Nagy’s comments suggest that resolving disputes between Ethiopia and Egypt may require both countries to move beyond historical positions and recognize the changing economic, political and strategic realities of the region.

His central argument is that cooperation, rather than attempts to contain or weaken one another, could provide a more sustainable path for the Horn of Africa.

In his assessment, recognizing Ethiopia’s development interests while addressing Egypt’s concerns over water security could create space for an agreement that serves the interests of both countries and contributes to greater regional stability.