American Analyst Warns Eritrea's Proxy Strategy Risks Destabilizing Horn of Africa

Addis Ababa, July 30, 2026 (ENA) —American geopolitical analyst Andrew Korybko has warned that the Eritrean regime's proxy strategy could further destabilize the Horn of Africa, fuel insecurity and threaten regional stability.

In his recent article, "Eritrea's Hybrid War on Ethiopia Threatens To Set The Whole Horn Ablaze," Korybko contends that Eritrea's policies under Isaias Afwerki are driven by a strategic objective of preventing Ethiopia from emerging as a strong regional power.

Drawing on recent developments, the analyst argues that Eritrea's strategy has included alleged support for anti-peace armed groups, contributing to the persistence of conflicts and instability across the Horn of Africa.

Korybko's assessment aligns with observations made by Getachew Reda, Adviser to Prime Minister on East African Affairs, during the Ethiopian National Defense College's Annual National Security Conference held in late June.

Getachew underscored that Eritrea's strategic calculations are based on ensuring that Ethiopia remains politically and economically weakened.

"Eritrea conceptualizes its security as being ensured by a weak Ethiopia," Korybko wrote.

He characterized Eritrea's actions as a form of hybrid warfare, combining political pressure, covert support for insurgent groups, and efforts to hinder Ethiopia's economic progress and national cohesion.

The analyst further argued that Addis Ababa has repeatedly proposed expanding economic cooperation with Eritrea—including reported offers involving strategic investments and infrastructure partnerships linked to reliable and unrestricted access to the sea.

However, these initiatives were rejected by Asmara, the America analyst stated.

According to Korybko, closer economic integration would not only strengthen Ethiopia's economy but also accelerate regional development, making such cooperation strategically undesirable from Eritrea's perspective.

He noted that Ethiopian advocates a dual-track response centered on accelerating national development and infrastructure projects while intensifying diplomatic efforts to secure sea access and strengthen regional cooperation.

Korybko also argued that the Horn of Africa's security landscape has become increasingly complex due to Egypt's strategic alignment with Eritrea.

He claimed that Cairo is using Eritrea as a proxy to contain Ethiopia, transforming longstanding bilateral disputes into a broader geopolitical challenge with implications for the entire region.

"The real threat to regional peace comes from Egypt, but the most direct one comes from Eritrea," Korybko wrote, warning that the Horn of Africa risks becoming another theater of proxy competition with potentially far-reaching consequences.

Drawing parallels with geopolitical rivalries in other regions, the analyst cautioned that continued tensions could heighten the risk of wider conflict unless addressed through sustained diplomacy, regional dialogue, and confidence-building measures.

Korybko concluded that Ethiopia should continue strengthening its economic resilience, national development, and diplomatic engagement while remaining vigilant to evolving regional security challenges.

He further warned that unless Eritrea changes its current course or the international community takes more decisive steps to encourage de-escalation, the Horn of Africa's fragile peace could come under increasing strain, with consequences extending well beyond the region.