Regional Climate Outlook Forecasts below Normal Rainfall across Most Parts of Greater HoA

Addis Ababa, May 19, 2026 —The June to September 2026 rainfall outlook indicates a high likelihood of below normal rainfall across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (HoA), according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC).

ICPAC, together with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services from member states, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as well as partners have issued the regional climate outlook for June to September, 2026 today.

Presenting the regional climate outlook for the stated period, Member of the Governing Board both at ICPAC and the African Centre for Meteorological Applications (ACMAD), Fetene Teshome, said drier than the usual condition with warmer than other average temperature is expected in the Greater Horn of Africa.

At the closing of the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Forum (GHACOF73) held from 18 to 19 May 2026 in Addis Ababa, he stressed the need for stakeholders to utilize the forecast information and advisories to support the risk reduction and the climate enforcement planning.

The June to September 2026 rainfall outlook indicates a high likelihood of below normal rainfall across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, where June, July, August, September is the main season, particularly in South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, much of Eritrea, Sudan, and the western and coastal Kenya.

The highest likelihood of below normal rainfall is projected over central, North-Eastern, and Northwestern Ethiopia, Southern Sudan and Northern Uganda, where probabilities exceed 60 percent with peaks reaching up to 80 percent in North Eastern Ethiopia.

 

In contrast, isolated areas in Northern Sudan, South Eastern Ethiopia and Southern and Northern Somalia are expected to receive enhanced rainfall.

Furthermore, Fetene stated that areas of Northern Sudan, Southern coastal Somalia, and Kenya are expected to receive near normal rainfall.

On temperature outlook, he said the temperature outlook indicates a higher likelihood of above normal temperature across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.

The highest probabilities of warmer than normal conditions are indicated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia, the forecast further indicated.

According to the forecast, the evolving 2026 climate condition closely resembles those experienced during the strong El-Nino years of 1997 and 2023.

During the both analog years, several parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and the Western Kenya recorded below normal rainfall during the June to September season similar to the conditions currently forecast for 2026.

These past years provide useful guidance for preparedness and anticipatory action. However, Fetene said these seasonal forecasts remain the main reference for planning the decision making.

The forecast below normal rainfall may have implications, particularly across key sectors with likely impacts on rain-fed agriculture, water availability, livestock systems, hydropower generation, food security, conflict and public health.

Stakeholders are therefore encouraged to utilize the forecast information and advisories to support risk reduction and the climate enforcement planning.

ICPAC will continue to provide regular regional updates while national meteorological and hydrological services will be issued for detailed countries specific forecasts and advisories.