Ethiopia’s Development Path Rooted in National Resolve, not in Geopolitical Winds

 

By Mola Mitiku

Ethiopia’s development vision reflects a firm national decision to pursue progress on the basis of fairness, sovereignty and long term stability. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam emerged from this conviction, symbolizing Ethiopia’s determination to use its resources responsibly despite continuous external pressure. This demonstrates that the country’s development is anchored in domestic priorities rather than the shifting agendas of regional geopolitics.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has described the dam as “a living testament to generations to come” and said it represents “justice for the Ethiopian people, who have waited so long under an unjust world order system.” He explained that its completion was made possible through collective sacrifice expressed as “a drop of blood, a drop of sweat, a drop of tears, and a drop of water.” This sentiment resonates across the population, reflecting a broad national belief that Ethiopia’s internal needs take precedence over outside demands.

The government’s decisions on energy, water and regional integration follow constitutional responsibilities and the needs of a growing population. This is why the dam has become more than a power project. It is a clear manifestation of Ethiopia’s resolve to secure sustainable development and equitable access to natural resources for present and future generations.

Persistent Destabilizing Actions

Although Ethiopia consistently advocates mutual benefit and regional cooperation, its efforts have long been met with resistance from Egypt and, in various periods, Eritrea. Their actions have often undermined Ethiopia’s stability and obstructed economic development.

Egypt’s strategy has centered on maintaining dominance over the Nile. Its objections to any development on the Abbay River trace back many decades. The foundation of this position lies in claims of “historic rights” linked to the 1929 and 1959 treaties that excluded Ethiopia and other upstream countries while granting Egypt near total control of the river. These agreements contradict modern international norms requiring equitable and reasonable use of shared watercourses. The 1997 Convention on the Law of Non Navigational Uses of International Watercourses stipulates that countries must use such resources “in an equitable and reasonable manner” and must cooperate on their development. Egypt’s position runs contrary to this principle.

Yacob Arsano noted that Egypt’s argument “originates in colonial and neocolonial assertions” designed to deny upstream nations their rightful share. He explained that Egypt’s strategy has historically relied on keeping Ethiopia in what Egyptian planners have described as “continued socioeconomic, technological, national security and defense backwardness” in order to secure their own interests. This has included the provision of “training, ammunition, logistics” to groups seeking to destabilize Ethiopia at various times. These actions have reinforced mistrust and complicated attempts at regional cooperation.

Egypt has also used international platforms to obstruct Ethiopia’s work on the Abbay. This included repeated efforts to take the GERD issue to the United Nations Security Council to generate outside pressure. Cairo has persisted in lobbying international institutions to deny funding for hydropower and irrigation projects along the river, a strategy clearly intended to limit Ethiopia’s ability to use its own natural resources. Recently, the country has repeatedly announced that it never procceed any dialogue with Ethiopia, which contradicts mutual development and   equitable resource utilization along the Nile Basin.  These actions collectively seek to prevent Ethiopia from utilizing its own resources responsibly. Their cumulative effect has been to hinder reconstruction, weaken governance structures and erode social cohesion.

Ethiopia’s Firm Stance

Ethiopia has repeatedly stated that unilateral control of the Nile is no longer acceptable. The GERD signals a structural shift in regional dynamics and confirms that upstream countries are not bound by colonial era arrangements designed to suppress their interests. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized this point, saying the dam “marks the end of Ethiopia’s long history of unfulfilled aspirations to harness the Abay River.”

Ethiopia’s position is grounded in international water law and the principle of equitable and reasonable use. Professor Ahmed Zekaria described the dam as “a vivid indicator of a possibility of reversal in African history of poverty through equitable utilization of resources.” The Cooperative Framework Agreement, now in force, stands as an important continental achievement. It represents a collective commitment among riparian states to govern the Nile on the basis of fairness and shared benefit.

In connection to the recent repeated rejection of the Eyptian officials to engage in dialogue, Ethiopia still responded only dialogue and cooperation should be the way in resolving challenges along the Nile Basin. In a statement released on 3 December 2025, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Egypt’s repeated rejection of talks, coupled with “veiled and not so veiled threats,” shows “the failure of the Egyptian government to come to terms with the realities of the twenty first century.”

The ministry said Egyptian officials remain “steeped in colonial era mentality,” still convinced that they possess exclusive rights over the river. It noted that this argument depends on “colonial era treaties” and claims of “historical rights” that Ethiopia rejects. The statement accused Egypt of pursuing a longstanding strategy aimed at keeping the Horn of Africa “pliant, weak and fragmented” to maintain influence. It described this approach as a “misguided” continuation of outdated thinking and said it is time for Cairo to “retire this obsolete playbook that has never cowed Ethiopia.”

The statement underscored Ethiopia’s long history as a champion of Pan African causes, saying the country “has no room to accommodate the vestiges of colonialism that Cairo is finding difficult to eschew.” It highlighted that the Abbay River contributes 86 percent of the Nile’s flow and that Ethiopia has a clear right to utilize resources found within its borders. It affirmed that all riparian countries are entitled to equitable and reasonable use and said Ethiopia “has no obligation to seek permission from anyone.”

According to the ministry, Egypt’s rejection of dialogue has become overt. While Egypt once “pretended to engage in negotiations,” it now openly refuses and intensifies hostile rhetoric “with a clear intention to orchestrate an escalation.” The statement called this posture irresponsible and urged regional and global actors to raise their voices against it. It concluded that Ethiopia will continue to pursue development anchored in fairness and cooperation while firmly upholding its rights and openness to “win win solutions” for shared prosperity.

Conclusion

Ethiopia’s developmental direction marks a decisive break from outdated regional power arrangements. The country is charting a path that prioritizes energy security, fairness in resource sharing and wider economic opportunity. The GERD has become the defining symbol of this shift, demonstrating how national determination can prevail over diplomatic obstruction and external pressure.

Ethiopia remains focused on strengthening stability, protecting sovereign decision making and safeguarding the rights of its people. The country looks ahead to a future built on cooperation and mutual benefit, even as it works diligently to sustain a development trajectory anchored in national resolve rather than geopolitical storms.