Climate Intelligence for Survival: IGAD’s Push for Accurate, Actionable Data

Addis Ababa, January 22, 2025 (ENA)—Across the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region, climate change has moved from a looming concern to a daily crisis. Communities in this East African region are still grappling with recurring droughts, sudden floods, and unpredictable weather patterns that are uprooting lives and deepening vulnerabilities.

Between 2021 and 2023 alone, the Horn of Africa endured the worst drought in 40 years, severely affecting countries like Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and other countries in the region.

 Somalia alone recorded the displacement of over one million people in 2022, driven by the collapse of food and water systems. During this period, more than 4.2 million livestock died across IGAD member states, devastating pastoralist communities dependent on livestock for survival.

Moreover, More than 10.3 million internally displaced persons in East and the Horn of Africa by the end of 2023.

Among them, at least 1.9 million were displaced due to climate-induced disasters, reaffirming the growing connection between environmental shocks and forced mobility.

In total, nearly 3.5 million people in the IGAD region were uprooted by droughts, floods, and other extreme climate events during that year alone, according to Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reported.

As one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, the IGAD bloc is taking bold steps to place climate intelligence at the heart of its resilience strategy. By prioritizing accurate, timely, and actionable climate data, IGAD is shifting from reactive crisis response to proactive risk management—laying the foundation for sustainable development and regional stability.

Central to this effort is IGAD’s continued investment in its Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which plays a critical role in enhancing early warning systems and improving climate forecasting across member states. These forward-looking initiatives are instilling renewed optimism, as they are crucial for minimizing displacement risks, guiding emergency preparedness, and shaping long-term climate adaptation plans.

Yet, despite these efforts, millions across the region continue to suffer the brunt of intensifying climate extremes—paying the price for a crisis they did little to cause.

Underscoring the urgency of the moment, ICPAC officially released the seasonal climate forecast for March to May (MAM) 2025 at the 69th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF69), held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

The forecast warns of below-average rainfall across much of the Greater Horn of Africa—prompting an urgent call for anticipatory action by policymakers, development actors, and local communities to avert further humanitarian and ecological fallout.

The rising frequency of extreme weather events across the IGAD region is not only displacing millions but also creating fertile conditions for the resurgence of desert locusts and other transboundary pests—posing severe threats to food security. Between 2019 and 2021 alone, over USD 850 million was spent on emergency responses to desert locust outbreaks, according to ICPAC data.

Speaking to the Ethiopian News Agency (ENA) a few months ago, Kenneth Mwangi, ICPAC’s Program Manager for Sustainable Transboundary Pest Management, expressed deep concern over renewed locust invasions, warning that this persistent threat—ranked among the top 10 drivers of food insecurity in the region—could worsen an already fragile food situation.

Climate scientist Herbert Omondi Misiani of ICPAC echoed these concerns, noting that the IGAD region continues to experience intensifying climate variability, including erratic rainfall patterns, prolonged droughts, and frequent flooding. He emphasized that shifts in sea surface temperature—key climate drivers—are expected to further exacerbate droughts, pest outbreaks, and disease spread in the coming years.

In this context, the need for accurate, timely, and accessible climate information is not just important—it is urgent and indispensable for safeguarding lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems across the IGAD region.

IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Abdi Ware, remarked at the official release of ICPAC’s seasonal climate forecast for March to May (MAM) 2025, that accurate climate information is extremely important in decision-making.

In this seasonal climate forecast, the March to May season is a crucial period for the equatorial regions of the Greater Horn of Africa, contributing up to 60 percent of annual rainfall in many areas.

However, the latest forecast indicates a high likelihood of below-average rainfall in Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania. Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected in parts of Tanzania, eastern Uganda, and western Ethiopia.

"It is essential to provide timely and actionable information to policymakers, enabling them to make anticipatory decisions that will have a meaningful impact on people's lives in the face of climate uncertainty," the IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary underlined.

For Dr. Abdi Fidar, Officer-in-Charge at ICPAC, effective communication, particularly with farmers and pastoral communities, adding that: "This information must be disseminated widely, especially to subsistence farmers and pastoralists, so they can make informed decisions about their livelihoods."

The role of GHACOF in bringing together climate scientists and user communities to assess past trends and future predictions, Fetene Teshome, Director General of the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI).

"GHACOF 69 provides a platform for climate experts and stakeholders from key sectors to collaborate on climate risk management," he revealed.

The seasonal outlook also suggests that temperatures will likely be warmer than normal across much of the region, with the highest probabilities in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and northern Somalia. These elevated temperatures, combined with below-normal rainfall, are expected to have significant impacts on agriculture, water resources, and public health.

Stakeholders are urged to take proactive measures to mitigate the potential impacts of the anticipated drought conditions, particularly for vulnerable populations such as women, children, the elderly, and persons with disabilities.

For instance, Dr. Fidar reiterated the importance of regional cooperation, stating that platforms like GHACOF are vital for building a shared understanding of climate risks and fostering collective action.

In closing, Mohamed Abdi Ware highlighted the need for holistic approaches to address the interconnected challenges of climate change and conflict. "Collaboration is key to ensuring a resilient and sustainable future for all," he emphasized.

The GHACOF69 forum, held from January 20-21, 2025, brought together national meteorological and hydrological services, development partners, and stakeholders to discuss strategies for enhancing climate resilience in the region.

​​​In sum, the IGAD region remains one of the most climate-vulnerable and climate-impacted areas in the world—facing an escalating crisis that demands urgent and decisive action. Without bold measures, the lives and livelihoods of millions hang in the balance. Now more than ever, countries in the region must act on early warning climate information and accelerate the transition toward climate-resilient economic growth. Survival, stability, and sustainable development depend on it.