GHACOF Forecasts Higher Odds of Wetter Conditions in Africa

Addis Ababa ENA August 29/2019 The 53rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum forecasts higher chance of wetter conditions in Africa.

This was disclosed on Wednesday during the closing of the 53^rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook (GHACOF 53) for October, November and December (OND) Forum which was held in Dar es-Salaam, Tanzania.

The October to December seasonal forecast constitutes higher chance of wetter conditions over most equatorial part of the Greater Horn of Africa region.  

Increased likelihood of wetter conditions is indicated over central and north-western Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, much of Uganda, western and northern Kenya, as well as southern and south-eastern Ethiopia.

The seasonal forecast for the October to December 2019 rainfall season indicates higher chance of wetter conditions in most of the equatorial and southern sectors (Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Southern parts of South Sudan, and Somalia).

The forecast indicated that likelihood of wetter conditions over northern Sudan as well as Ethiopia and depressed rainfall in the northern Rift Valley of Ethiopia regions which rarely receive rainfall during the OND season and this may indicate potential for occurrence of un seasonal rainfall.

According to the forecast, there are increased chances of drier than average conditions along the Red Sea areas of Sudan and Eritrea.

An earlier than normal start of the rains is predicted across the western sector including Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and western Kenya.

On the other hand, moderately delayed onset is predicted over eastern Kenya, Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia.

While much of the equatorial sector is expected to experience wetter conditions during the OND season, the models predict increased chances of drier than average rainfall during September 2019 over south-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, western Tanzania and central Sudan.

The forum was organized by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and partners on ‘Early Warning for Early Action in Support of Climate Resilience’.